Will Obama Blow His Diplomatic Opportunity with Iran?

As we move toward a new round of nuclear talks in Geneva this week between Iran and the P5+1, it is important to look soberly at each side’s approach to renewed nuclear diplomacy and what that implies about the prospects for real diplomatic progress. 

On the Iranian side, the public diplomacy carried out by President Hassan Rohani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif during their visits to New York for the United Nations General Assembly—along with Zarif’s meeting with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and the other P5+1 foreign ministers and Rohani’s fifteen-minute phone conversation with President Obama—was exceptional.  Moreover, conversations with Iranian officials in New York during Rohani and Zarif’s visits there and in Tehran during the first week of October suggest that the Iranian side will come to the Geneva talks proactively prepared with proposals for resolving the nuclear issue within a finite period. 

It is far less clear, however, that the Obama administration is prepared to do anything of real seriousness and substance to facilitate diplomatic progress.  American elites—including Obama administration policymakers—are still talking about “productive diplomacy” with Iran primarily in terms of extracting major concessions from the Islamic Republic. 

On the nuclear issue, for example, President Rohani and Dr. Zarif have articulated a model for resolving the nuclear issue whereby the United States and the West would recognize Iran’s nuclear rights in exchange for greater transparency surrounding Iran’s nuclear activities (e.g., the Islamic Republic could ratify and implement the Additional Protocol to the NPT and accept stricter notification requirements regarding new nuclear initiatives).  But Obama administration officials and many pundits are arguing, in effect, that “transparency is not enough.” 

–They are arguing that Washington must become, in effect, the co-manager of Iran’s nuclear program, determining which Iranian nuclear facilities must be closed and which might be allowed to remain opening, determining not how many additional centrifuges Iran might be allowed to install in the future but how many centrifuges it must dismantle to satisfy the United States and Israel.   

–And, as we have pointed out for many months (and which American pundits themselves are now finally noticing), the Obama will face enormous and largely self-inflicted legal difficulties in lifting or modifying U.S. sanctions to encourage and support diplomatic progress on the nuclear issue.  During Obama’s presidency, many U.S. sanctions that started out as executive order sanctions have been written into law, with conditions for their removal that go well beyond progress on the nuclear issue.  These conditions include requirements that Tehran cut its ties to groups like Hizballah that the United States foolishly designates as terrorist organizations and effectively transform the Islamic Republic into a secular liberal republic.      

And, of course, notwithstanding the Obama administration’s self-inflicted debacle over its declared intention to attack the Syrian government following the use of chemical weapons in Syria on August 21, the United States continues to insist—as Obama himself declared in his UN General Assembly address—that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must leave office before any political process aimed at resolving the Syrian conflict can unfold. 

America’s Middle East policy, it seems, remains stuck in fantasy land.    

–Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett

Share
 

437 Responses to “Will Obama Blow His Diplomatic Opportunity with Iran?”

  1. Aletho says:

    Against the Winds of Peace: The Zionist Power Configuration

    … On September 29, 2013, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu landed in New York, as part of an Israeli campaign to undermine world-wide support for a peaceful resolution of the war against Syria and the US-Iranian conflict. On September 30, Netayanhu met with President Obama and addressed the United Nations General Assembly the next day. Israel and Netanyahu represent the biggest and most powerful obstacle to the growing “tide of peace”. …

    Full article: http://alethonews.wordpress.com/2013/10/11/obama-at-the-un-general-assembly-five-years-a-zionist-lackey/

  2. Karl.. says:

    Obama lack the courage to change the iran policy. Especially now when the crazy netanyahu have restarted the warmongering against Iran again.

    As Leverett’s say, there will be no change, and cant change due obama’s irrational sanctions that are in principle impossible to rewind.

  3. Fiorangela says:

    “These conditions include requirements that Tehran cut its ties to groups like Hizballah that the United States foolishly designates as terrorist organizations and effectively transform the Islamic Republic into a secular liberal republic.

    by what authority?

    Isn’t such a demand in direct contravention to United Nations Charter, Article 2 –

    Article 2

    The Organization and its Members, in pursuit of the Purposes stated in Article 1, shall act in accordance with the following Principles.

    The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.
    All Members, in order to ensure to all of them the rights and benefits resulting from membership, shall fulfill in good faith the obligations assumed by them in accordance with the present Charter.
    All Members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered.
    All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
    All Members shall give the United Nations every assistance in any action it takes in accordance with the present Charter, and shall refrain from giving assistance to any state against which the United Nations is taking preventive or enforcement action.
    The Organization shall ensure that states which are not Members of the United Nations act in accordance with these Principles so far as may be necessary for the maintenance of international peace and security.
    Nothing contained in the present Charter shall authorize the United Nations to intervene in matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any state or shall require the Members to submit such matters to settlement under the present Charter; but this principle shall not prejudice the application of enforcement measures under Chapter Vll.

  4. BiBiJon says:

    “And, as we have pointed out for many months (and which American pundits themselves are now finally noticing), the Obama will face enormous and largely self-inflicted legal difficulties in lifting or modifying U.S. sanctions or encourage and support diplomatic progress on the nuclear issue.”

    What legal hurdles are involved in US voting/abstaining from a UNSC resolution that supersedes previous resolutions, and returns Iran’s nuclear file to IAEA?

    If UNSC mandated sanctions are thus lifted, what effect will that have on third-party-sanctions legislation? Can they be challenged in US courts? Will the Treasury be forced under court order, not to penalize third parties for normal trade relations with Iran?

    I am not in favor of giving Obama any excuses. He has many avenues for reconciling with Iran. If he does not take them, it is a personal choice he will be making in the next few months, and not to do with decisions in the past tying his hands.

  5. Fiorangela says:

    Anyone who does not recognize that the present USA government shutdown/debt crisis is intricately related to the Iran file has not penetrated history beyond the barriers signaled by questions and hurdles that Rohani and the Iranian people are forced to respond to such as this one.

  6. Rd. says:

    If obama were to have his Nixon China moment, there has to be a strong motivation. Nixon had Soviet Union to force him to move to the Chines side. For obama, the only force ‘may be’ the financial disaster and US dependency on the stable energy prices from PG, when it comes to the question of detente with IRI.

    If war is to expensive to maintain such guarantees (as fyi suggests), then at what point the peace becomes the option? Is it fair to say, if and when that financial calculation becomes a concern, then you can expect THE change from US side. Then the question SHOULD be, how bad is the financial stress?

  7. Don Bacon says:

    Will Obama Blow His Diplomatic Opportunity with Iran?

    To ask the question is to answer it. The Congress is against diplomacy, there are laws to contend with, and there is the question of Obama’s character, or lack of it.

  8. Don Bacon says:

    And what drives Congress? Dollars. Here’s Steve Clemons in a recent puff-piece on SecDef Hagel

    “Hagel and his Pentagon team had tied together Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirites, and Israel in a $10 billion deal bolstering these countries’ defenses against potential Iranian aggression. Though each of the deals were particular to the specific countries, they knew that the cumulative impact would send a signal of resolve to Iran’s Supreme Leader. Given that the powerful lobby, the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee, was formed in part as a response to American’s 1981 effort to sell military aircraft to Saudi Arabia, the implicit cooperation between the Israelis and Saudis on the Hagel deal was unusual.”

    Actually Clemons is way low on his $10 billion — its many times that, with the Saudi military alone having a potential of $60 billion. Total arms sales for the Gulf countries is more than the GDP of about 120 countries in the world.

    So having Iran as an enemy pays off, big time. They won’t give it up easily. “Potential Iranian aggression” pays the bills.

  9. fyi says:

    All:

    A discussion of an analogous histroical example:

    http://krepon.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/3922/monitoring-iran#more-3985

    “To provide all necessary monitoring it’s enough to establish two or three automated seismic stations. And thanks to you I made a fool of myself, because as soon as we made our proposal we were answered with a demand to agree to eight to ten, and now seven inspections a year, which the Soviet Union can’t accept. All further concessions would not be to Kennedy, but to Goldwater and other hawks.’”

  10. James Canning says:

    Front page report in Financial Times today, regarding P5+1 negotiations. Iran says it is a “red line” that it will not agree to export enriched uranium. FT says this may not pose too much of a problem.

  11. James Canning says:

    Rd.,

    Nixon needed a deal with China to provide cover for getting out of Vietnam War quagmire. Pakistan helped arrange the deal, and Nixon had ignored the bloody effort by Pakistan to crush the independence movement in East Pakistan.

  12. James Canning says:

    Don Bacon,

    FT reports today that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and UAE are producing more than 16 million barrels of oil per day. US buys more than $200 million daily, from those countries (60 million barrels per month).

  13. Rehmat says:

    Alastair Crooke wrote in the UK daily Guardian on September 29, 2013: “The (US-Israel) Gulf containment strategy of igniting a Sunni “intifada” against Shia influence seems to have collapsed, as the Gulf monarchs absorb the significance of Barack Obama’s U-turn on Syria, and the opening to Iran. What made it so traumatic was that not just Obama but the US system itself had buckled (public and Congress together). It represented rather a strategic lurch. President Assad would stay, and Iran would not be dismantled but emerge strengthened.”

    http://rehmat1.com/2013/10/14/did-us-throw-israel-under-bus-on-syria/

  14. James Canning says:

    “The north of Syria has become increasingly lawless, with hundreds of rebel groups fighting with each other, as well as with the remaining Syrian government presence. . . ”
    Daily Telegraph Oct 14 (report from Beirut, by Ruth Sherlock)

  15. Karl.. says:

    Some people never learn..

    According to news 10 senators urge Obama in a a letter that Iran must end its enrichment and in return there will be no new sanctions..

    As soon as these warmongers (including obama) start to respect iranians there could be a solution.

  16. nico says:

    Good summary of the shift in the balance of power
    The current western economic crisis is obviously playing a role in the speed it shall occur.
    Not least important is the real understunding of the true dynamic at world stage by leadership in Iran.

    It seems the current negociation and a US deal with Iran are one last chance for the west to keep a foot in the ME.

    http://edition.presstv.ir/iphone/detail.aspx?id=329387

    Quote

    “The Iranian military official said that the US faced a “strategic defeat” in war against Afghanistan as it failed to achieve its main objectives and also suffered great loss.
    “Although the US managed to kill [Osama] bin Laden in Afghanistan, it failed to overthrow the Taliban …,” Rahim-Safavi stated. The US also failed to establish security, progress and peace in Afghanistan, he added.
    He said the US failed to monopolize power in the world, promote unilateralism and establish its desirable government in Iraq and Afghanistan.
    “Most probably, the world will move towards multipolarity such as the power of the Asian continent and no super power at an international scale will remain by 2030,” the commander said.”

    End quote.

    2020 as I stated here time and again or 2030. Well that is truly not that much of a difference.

    Another striking difference between Iranian and US leadership is the latter being utterly incapable to articulate a sound strategy.
    Iranian leaders are speaking directly, logically and intelligibly.
    What we read from Stratfor, CFR or other think tanks on one hand or the military and politicians in the US on the other hand is utter nonsense and lies from basement to roof. Utter fraudulent logic and thinking.
    Only marketing BS.
    Is that democracy when whatever discussion or strategic thinking is undisguised dishonesty.
    The same rotten and fraudulent system which does not seriously reform the financial structure or overhaul the US foreign policy and mindset.

    The Leveretts are too gentle with the crap coming out of the strategic community in the US.
    The Leveretts are right in that the US are in their way toward irrelevance in the ME and Asia and the US leaders or living in fantasy land.

  17. nico says:

    Rd. says:
    October 14, 2013 at 11:10 am

    “If obama were to have his Nixon China moment, there has to be a strong motivation. Nixon had Soviet Union to force him to move to the Chines side. For obama, the only force ‘may be’ the financial disaster and US dependency on the stable energy prices from PG, when it comes to the question of detente with IRI.
    If war is to expensive to maintain such guarantees (as fyi suggests), then at what point the peace becomes the option? Is it fair to say, if and when that financial calculation becomes a concern, then you can expect THE change from US side. Then the question SHOULD be, how bad is the financial stress”

    Are you sure of that ?
    Today’s world dominance is a game between China and the US.
    I guess, no revelation here for anyone…

    Besides the US zionist fantasy, the control over the ME means control over China.
    Now how the US could control the ME when they strategically failed miserably in Irak and Afghanistan ?
    Would the US need Iran against China or would they need to destroy Iran ?
    What are the costs and the benefits in each scenario ?
    What would the US be allowed to do by China and Russia (as per Gav’ prefered formulation)
    And of course what is the strategic alliance that could be carved out between Iran and US.
    If not strategic alliance then what modus vivendi ?

    China is today what USSR was yesterday when Nixon sealed the great bargain.

  18. Sammy says:

    “Fiorangela says:
    October 14, 2013 at 11:02 am
    Anyone who does not recognize that the present USA government shutdown/debt crisis is intricately related to the Iran file…

    Fiorangela , could you please elaborate further , where is the direct connection ?
    Thanks

  19. kooshy says:

    nico says:
    October 14, 2013 at 3:38 pm
    Rd. says:
    October 14, 2013 at 11:10 am

    Nico I can agree with Rd that financials can play as the push incentive for a possible remaking a relationship like what the USSR was in case of China. But I don’t think the current economic difficulties is enough to push US to remake her ME policies. I would think losing dollars as the Fiat petrodollar currency would be more likely for US to shift from support and maintenance of Arab dictatorial monarchies to more stable regional democracies like Iran.

    I also think that is one of the reasons for other world powers like China and Russia not letting dollar to fall they wish to keep US injured for as long as they can while they are remaking their economic, political and military strength.

    In my opinion future of US-Iran relations and a remake of it is the key to many issues going on in current world affairs and geopolitics.

  20. nico says:

    kooshy says:
    October 14, 2013 at 4:37 pm
    “Nico I can agree with Rd that financials can play as the push incentive for a possible remaking a relationship like what the USSR was in case of China.”

    Sure finance and economy are at the heart of the matter.
    For now China and the US are stuck together and major competitors.
    The unbalanced of trade between China and the US is unsustainable.
    China is to be blamed as well when they artificially maintain the Yuan rate pegged artificially low against the USD.
    But China is holding near 3 trillions of USD denominated asset and can default the US and default itself by dumping the T bonds.
    Anyway what is worth whenthe USD position is that much weakened ?
    Everybody is only pretending that the world economy is sound whereas it is gigantic unbalanced and zombi economy.

    The real question is the China-US relation.
    And I agree with you that ME and specially the Iran are sitting just at the crossroad.

    It is common knowledge that China Gdp will be surpass US gdp in few years and that the China already is the biggest oil importer at world stage.

    Everything is tied up together like the petrodollar status.

    The balance of power at world stage is shifting and it is clear that the neocon’s post cold war unilateral Project for a New American Century has dramatically and miserably failed.

    The issue is that now with the US losing world leadership and in such an economic impass, the wrld economy is at stake at at the brink of a major evolution with the concommitent and natural end of the reserve status of the USD.

    That is the real stake and the true background of the US geopolicies.

    As I repeated time and again here, the US made a major mistake after the cold war and shall pay the price.
    The remaining question is how will they manage that politically.
    Will the US feel the need of a world war to throw the chessboard upside down or not ?

    The US and the west still have many assets. As technolgy and inovation capabilities or holding key technologies or market shares in strategic sectors.
    However China is doing gigantic efforts to catch up. And China is not that far behind a maybe soon at the forefront in many domains. Like for example green energies or automotive.

    Case in point is the next conference in Iran where major car manufacturers from west AND China are invited.
    http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13920721001123
    That is not trivial.

    Sure the competition is fierce. Still it is discreet.

    Another question would be :
    1 – positing that the shift in global economy would naturally and inevitably see the end of the USD and major trade unbalances at some point.
    2 – when one see how all is tied up and world complexity
    3 – And positing that all major world powers having a stake in the globilized economy decide to work positively and constructively together (which is quite unlikely – but for the sake of the question please assume that is possible)
    4 – then would it be even possible for such shift to occur without localized destruction and economic collateral damage ?

  21. BiBiJon says:

    Aletho says:
    October 14, 2013 at 9:50 am

    Bloomberg’s editorial page: A Nuclear Deal That [I,] Iran, and the World, Can Live With

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-14/a-nuclear-deal-that-iran-and-the-world-can-live-with.html

  22. Fiorangela says:

    Trita Parsi is high on happy talk — http://www.ted.com/talks/trita_parsi_iran_and_israel_peace_is_possible.html

    Parsi brings his Fukuyama realism to bear sprinkled liberally with “geostrategic” and “historic roots” and “perception of common threats.” The differences between Israel and Iran are NOT ideological.

    Parsi argues that when the Rubics cube turns so that Iran-Israeli geostrategic interests once again align, as they did all through the Iran-Iraq war, Iran and Israel will once again kiss and make up.

    I recall a panel where Ephraim Sneh sat to the left of Parsi and closed the discussion with the declaration, “When Iran is democratic and secular, it can have a–nnn–ything, any nuclear development it wants.”

    In conference with Wendy Sherman and others over the past weeks, Robert Menendez and his cohort on the Senate Foreign Relations committee, Bob Corker, Marco Rubio, John McCain, dictate the conditions that Iran must fulfill before sanctions can be lifted, which the Leveretts summarize:

    “These conditions include requirements that Tehran cut its ties to groups like Hizballah that the United States foolishly designates as terrorist organizations and effectively transform the Islamic Republic into a secular liberal republic.

    Maybe Parsi is not concerned about the shift in identity that people like Sneh and the US Senate demand.

    It seems to me that when you undermine a nation’s cultural identity, you destroy the nation. I believe that is the intent of the Netanyahu faction of Israeli government/populace and by extension the US Senate/foreign policy establishment.

    Points to Parsi for a diplomatically crafted TED talk, but I think he missed a fundamental point and thereby gave away the store.

  23. James Canning says:

    “Turkey indicated last week that it could reconsider the deal [$4 billion purchase of missile defence system from China].”
    – - Sunday Times Oct 6

  24. James Canning says:

    Financial Times leader today argued for a strategic deal between the US and Iran, and not just a tactical one for the short term.

  25. fyi says:

    Fiorangela says:

    October 14, 2013 at 6:03 pm

    Dr. Parsi is a Zoroastrian and perhaps unable to see the reiligious elements that are crashing and have been crashing over Al Haram Al Sharif as well as on Palestine.

    One could hope to see someday a “democratic and secular” Palestine as well; that would be the death of the State of Israel, however.

  26. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 14, 2013 at 6:20 pm

    “We don’t do strategy” with Iran.

  27. Richard Steven Hack says:

    “Will Obama Blow His Diplomatic Opportunity with Iran?”

    Does this question even need to be asked, except to kowtow to the Pollyannas who are STILL drinking the Obama Kool-Aid?

  28. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Who are the “we”, to whom you refer? Dennis Ross? Hillary Clinton?

  29. Smith says:

    It was fake: http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=13920722001441

    These are real: youtube.com/watch?v=nUcFhLfWtcg

  30. Fiorangela says:

    fyi, Gaza DID exercise their democratic preference — for an Islamic-based government.

    My youngest child was a cynic at a very early age. At about 12 years of age, we were discussing democracy and freedom to make choices. The youngster said, “Yes, free to choose — as long as you choose properly.”

    I don’t think secularism is necessarily a desirable state. To my ear, it rhymes with everything-and-nothing.

  31. BiBiJon says:

    James Canning says:

    October 14, 2013 at 6:20 pm

    “We do nothing but strategy” with Iran.

    So much so, every kind of tactical transaction has been sacrificed on the alter of strategy these last decades. Now US strategy is aligning with that of Iran’s. Some may not see the wood (strategic alignment) for the forest (tactical coordination). They need to learn a new tune.

  32. James Canning says:

    New York Times has excellent story Oct 14 on the scheme by John Bolton to get the head of the OPCW fired, in 2002, as part of the neocon plan to set up the illegal invasion of Iraq.

  33. James Canning says:

    The preposterous proposal by ten US senators, that Iran be offered a suspension of new sanctions, for a deal, was signed by Patty Murray of Washington State (to the chagrin of Jim Lobe).

  34. Smith says:

    There will be no deal.

    It is not even about sanctions.

    It is about security. What is the guarantee that if Iran gives up its only functional security tool (nuclear technology), US will not turn around and invade Iran over a cooked up case of human/animal rights or democracy and chemical WMD?

    US congress has made sanctions the law of the land.

    As fyi has said and above Leveretts have written, US is not capable and willing to deliver.

    All sanctions that could have been placed on Iran have already been placed. And they will not be removed. Iran has already paid the price for having nuclear weapons. It is only now rational to pick up the nuclear weapons as well.

    Then US can request to talk with Iran as equals, both having nuclear weapons.

    As US had requested and talked with China when China had made nuclear weapons and beat US in proxy wars.

    With Afghan/Syria/Shia crescent situation ripening, a nuclear armed Iran would be in the same situation as was China back then.

    Then a US republican president can request Iran for visiting the country and come for talks and normalization (that is if US is interested): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cfsI4ZjTbU

    It is not possible right now. Because US (and indeed most Americans) does not want to recognize Iran as an equal nation. And this will not change until Iran has become armed with nuclear weapons.

  35. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 14, 2013 at 12:55 pm

    I think it should be all about equality. Back then US wanted to deal with USSR as if the later was a petty slave nation, intrusively inspecting them while not returning the favor.

    I do not think we can have any kind of a deal if Iran is not considered an equal to US. That is if the teams of white man and his house negroes are to come to Iran for intrusive snap inspection, then there must an equal number of Iranians doing the same intrusive snap inspections in US. Anything short of this is humiliation, boot licking and slavery.

  36. Smith says:

    fyi,

    Malaysia orders non-muslims stop using the world, Allah: http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/10/14/malaysia-court-allah-idINDEE99D00M20131014

    And this is one of the most “technologically” advanced “muslim” nations.

  37. fyi says:

    Smith says:
    October 14, 2013 at 8:30 pm

    No, do not be deceived; Malaysia is in way advanced.

    That country was created by the English – one has to admit that much – but advanced does not characterize that country; not in empirical sciences, not in the Fine Arts, not in Poetry, not in Literature, not in Philosophy.

    But I am not surprised of this – in Indonesia many Sunnis Muslims state that “Al Salam Aleikum” is reserved for Muslims only.

    They say “Hello” to foreigners.

    Reminds me of this Jewish teacher in Iran who refused to teach Hebrew to Muslims; “it is reserved for Jews only.”

  38. Fiorangela says:

    Giandomenico Picco at the NIAC Conference — http://www.c-span.org/Events/Conference-Examines-Upcoming-Iran-P51-Nuclear-Talks/10737442038/

    (@ 8 min.) “In the last 34 years there have been 12 negotiations between the West, mostly US, and the Islamic Republic of Iran; 11 of them were successful. I know about these because I was a part of most of them. The most successful, in my opinion, was not done by me but by the government of the US and Iran at the end of 2001 when Iran and US worked together to reinvent Afghanistan. This was the most successful negotiation between two countries, to, in essence, remake Afghanistan.”

    The video on this page talks about that negotiation http slash slash goingtotehran dot com/iran-and-american-foreign-policy-where-did-the-us-go-wrong-noam-chomsky-and-the-leveretts-at-mit

  39. fyi says:

    Smith says:
    October 14, 2013 at 7:53 pm

    I think that the Hubris of American leaders, like those of General Motors, will cause them to go through analogous situations some time in the future.

    I also think that Iran and US will probably agree on a small complicated deal in 2014 that is going to take years to implement and is strategically meaningless.

    Sanctions against Iran will persist.

  40. fyi says:

    BiBiJon says:
    October 14, 2013 at 6:37 pm

    This is probably part of the small complicated deal between US and Iran.

  41. fyi says:

    Fiorangela says:
    October 14, 2013 at 7:20 pm

    The issue is that they do not have any notion of intrinsic rights.

  42. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 14, 2013 at 8:36 pm

    Yes, I agree. That is why I said: “technological”. Of course no Muslim land has any performance in empirical sciences today, for the simple reason that thinking is not yet allowed in those lands. By “technology” I meant things like manufacturing air-conditioners, surgical gloves (they are a big producer), electronic parts etc etc mostly by plants built, owned and managed by American and Japanese. After all as per COMSTECH, Malaysia has 85% share of all high technology exports of 57 members of OIC. So if this is how they think, then you can imagine the prevalent thinking in places like Somalia or Afghanistan. By the way, Iran is not far behind in these matters as evident even on this forum.

  43. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 14, 2013 at 8:38 pm

    Much like the deal for their pull out of Iran, right?

    As for “nuclear deal” the fools can keep dreaming. It will not happen.

    The only deal will come when US and Iran can talk in equal terms, both holding nuclear weapons.

    Here is why: http://goo.gl/E55WuF

    “In Washington, a bipartisan group of leading U.S. senators said they are open to suspending the implementation of new sanctions on Iran but only if Tehran takes significant steps to slow its nuclear program.

    In a letter sent to President Barack Obama last week and released Monday, the 10 senators said the U.S. and other countries should consider a “suspension-for-suspension” agreement, in which Iran suspends uranium enrichment and Washington suspends the implementation of new sanctions.”

  44. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 14, 2013 at 8:38 pm

    Typo correction: Much like the deal for their pull out of Ira[q]….

  45. Smith says:

    fyi,

    http://goo.gl/E55WuF

    This “suspension for suspension” proposal made me remember your saying about American help with Iran’s transportation sector in 1950′s: “Give us oil and we help you import nice muscular donkeys from Cyprus”.

    Seems, not much has changed since then.

  46. Smith says:

    Geneva talks to being tomorrow: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24527659

    No talk of sanctions relief since sanctions can not be removed as it has become law of kadkhoda.

    There is only non-ending demands from Iran and the expectation for complete and unconditional compliance by Iranians. No reciprocity, no equality.

  47. Fiorangela says:

    The NIAC panel was very smart — some of the wisest arguments and cautions heard in a long time.

    Colin Kahl of Georgetown University outlined the deal that had the best chance of succeeding: enrichment limited to 5%; reduction in stockpiled uranium; and possible temporary closure of a facility.

    Mohsen Milani of University of South Florida said, “We always talk about what Iran should give up. We have to talk about what the US will deliver. Without US offering something in return for Iran reducing enrichment to 5% or closing a plant, it’s not a negotiation its dictating.”

    It was generally agreed that it is more likely that the US will be very hard to move; Saudi Arabia was seen as a bigger problem regionally than is Israel.

    Parsi pointed out that Iran’s leaders are preparing the Iranian public for “heroic flexibility.” Unfortunately, American leaders are NOT addressing the public at all.

    That suggests that the public will have to get active as happened regarding Syria — If the people lead, the leaders will follow.

  48. fyi says:

    All:

    From the National Interest by Mr. Amitai Etzioni – an Israeli citizen –

    http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/iran-opening-keep-it-simple-9226

  49. fyi says:

    Smith says:
    October 14, 2013 at 9:15 pm

    Indeed it has not.

    The original offer to Iran circa 2005 was help with environmental issues.

    As though Axis Powers had any experience with semi-arid environment (Israelis do, but Iranians had already been copying them).

    You see the same thing in Africa where fat rich Whites write about sustainable development.

    They need to teach Africans how to design, build, and service small single cylinder internal combustion engines – running on any combustible liquid.

  50. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 14, 2013 at 10:26 pm

    They will never teach that. Maybe because it will never stop with that, sooner then Africans will demand to be allowed to build nuclear power reactors since Africa is an energy starving poor continent while it is exporting uranium to Europe so that the white man can become fat.

    An old British company used to manufacture single cylinder Lister internal combustion engines and export them to Iran where it was used mainly for agricultural purposes. This is before the revolution. The engines were of a very old design of valveless low efficiency slow RPM type of 1920′s. They could run on diesel, heavy oil, vegetable oil etc.

    UK had been exporting these engines to Iran for about half a century. But by the time of revolution, Iranians had only learned how to operate and repair them, not designing and manufacturing them. After the revolution, with political and financial turmoil and deterioration in British-Iran ties, this British company could no more export its 1920 era engines to Iran anymore. It went bankrupt since Iran was its biggest market. Iranians moved on to buy Japanese diesel engines.

    The Lisers though, still are working in Iran: http://www.utterpower.com/blackstones_of_jask.htm

    I have heard, Iran has now become capable of manufacturing some of its parts (others are imported from India where copies of Lister (Listeroid) engines are produced.

  51. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 14, 2013 at 10:37 pm

    Their time shall come too. It is only a matter of time.

  52. fyi says:

    The Leveretts

    The “self-inflicted wounds” are only so in hindsight.

    Taken together with Mr. Obama’s planned war for Syria, it gives one the impression that the mechanism for the removal of sanctions were considered un-necessary since the expectation was that Iranian resistance would crumble due to the siege war against them.

    That is, no one cared about the sanction-removal mechanisms since they were not expected to be needed.

    Yes, they live in a fantasy island, surrounded by an ocean called Reality.

  53. Smith says:

    fyi,

    Talking about the Lister, it is unfair not to mention today’s news that Peugeot after losing its Iran market is also going to become Chinese eventually. Unfortunately, China had not yet become China of today in 1980, otherwise they would have bought the Lister company too, back then: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24528577

  54. Empty says:

    Fiorangela,

    RE: “Anyone who does not recognize that the present USA government shutdown/debt crisis is intricately related to the Iran file has not penetrated history beyond the barriers signaled by questions and hurdles that Rohani and the Iranian people are forced to respond to such as this one.”

    I am one of those who thinks the “shutdown/debt” has conveniently (for Obama) coincided with the Iran-related theatrics to divert attention (of the US population) to imagine reasons and alternative explanations for the shutdown from what the real reason is until the process is completed. The real reason, I think, is to begin unraveling the social security program and other programs that are providing for intragovernmental debt. I think the US is not in a position to default on the loans it has borrowed from central banks of China and Japan and these countries made it clear that they are no longer open for additional borrowing. Therefore, the humanist, labor activist, looking-out-for-the-poor-and-the-elderly, and a-change-you-can-believe-in President (fully bought and paid for by the very people who set the policies) is preparing the grounds for screwing the senior citizens. Of course, only time would demonstrate what the real reason beneath the reason is.

    Let us not forget that members of the congress themselves have masters who have rented them for a specified period of time to play certain roles.

  55. Empty says:

    …for additional lending, rather. (US is certainly ready for additional borrowing!)

  56. Smith says:

    Event stopping 20% enrichment is not enough to satisfy the white man. He demands more:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/15/world/middleeast/us-iran-sanctions.html?_r=0

  57. Karl.. says:

    Fiorangela

    NIAC is not realistic and have never been. First, who said Iran would stop its right to enrich, whatever number? Who believes its Saudiarabia not Israel that have the most power on this issue?

  58. Sineva says:

    Smith says:
    October 15, 2013 at 12:51 am
    The main problem was that irans auto makers were stupidly reliant on foreign exporters for critical components,it will no doubt take time for iran to establish local production lines for the unavailable components as well as switching production away from european designs to asian ones,but I have no doubt that in a year or so production will be back to its previous levels,the biggest losers here have been the european car manufacturers who have in effect had to write off the value of their iranian investments at a time when they needed all the foreign investments and exchange they could get

  59. Photi says:

    “TEHRAN – Tehran’s Jewish community has urged US President Barack Obama to seize an “unrepeatable” opportunity to mend fences with Iran now that a reputed moderate holds the Islamic republic’s presidency…”

    “He added that the small Jewish community has freedom of choice in “wearing jeans and listening to music,” referring to Netanyahu’s remarks.”

    http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=61954

  60. Bussed-in Basiji says:

    SL’s Hajj Message

    http://english.khamenei.ir//index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1831

    (Link posted above opens to page without a text for some reason)

  61. nico says:

    Provocation by US senate.
    Nice to see how the presstitute spin this out: “US senators open to suspending Iran sanctions”

    Http://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/us-senators-open-suspending-iran-sanctions-183243125.html

    But…

    “In a letter to President Barack Obama on Monday, the 10 senators said the US and other countries should consider a “suspension-for-suspension” initial agreement, in which Iran would suspend uranium enrichment and Washington would suspend the implementation of NEW sanctions.” [Emphasis added].

    Meaning even if Iran suspend enrichment which it will never do, then the current unilateral embargo and economic war shall remain in place.

    What a joke.

  62. nico says:

    What about China ?

    http://atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-02-151013.html

    “This is it. China has had enough. The (diplomatic) gloves are off. It’s time to build a “de-Americanized” world. It’s time for a “new international reserve currency” to replace the US dollar. It’s all here, in a Xinhua editorial, straight from the dragon’s mouth. And the year is only 2013. Fasten your seat belts – and that applies especially to the Washington elites. It’s gonna be a bumpy ride. Long gone are the Deng Xiaoping days of “keeping a low profile”. The Xinhua editorial summarizes the straw that broke the dragon’s back – the current US shutdown. ”

  63. nico says:

    China keeping low profile ?
    New international order ?
    No competition with the US ?
    Really ?

    http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2013/10/10/china-eyes-pakistan-as-regional-partner/

    “The Chinese communist party tabloid Global Times has featured an Op-Ed by a research fellow in the Academy of Military Science titled “Sino-Pak ties a testing ground for new global order.” The thrust of the piece is on reorienting China-Pakistan strategic cooperation to cope with the changes in the global order characterized by the decline of the West and the surge of China, and China’s search for a new type of relationship with the US. ”

  64. nico says:

    Mmmh.
    China again.

    http://atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-01-11101.html

    “JOHN PILGER
    Old game, new enemy:
    ChinaThe shopping mall massacre in Nairobi was a bloody facade behind which a full-scale invasion of Africa and a war in Asia are the great game. More than jihadism or Iran, China is now Washington’s obsession. With 60% of US and naval forces to be based in Asia by 2020 – aimed at China – high-level meetings this week in Tokyo of US and Japanese officials accelerated the prospect of war. (Oct 11, ’13) ”

  65. nico says:

    And again…
    http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-01-111013.html

    “Obama no-show isolates allies
    A sudden sense of solitude among the United States strategic Asian partners is palpable after Barack Obama’s no-show in the region this week. Doubts over the US commitment to Asia amid oncoming US defense budget cuts are leaving many of its allies to wonder if the US has the political and economic wherewithal to counterbalance China’s growing regional clout. - Richard Javad Heydarian (Oct 11, ’13)”

  66. nico says:

    And the Sinai’s idiot all hell bent against Iran.
    While the US is shutting down and losing ground in their worldwide struggle…
    When the US will be marginalized against China, it would NOT be for Israel benefit…
    What a stupid and shamefull leader.
    Does he understand that the good ol’ days are vanishing.
    Or he only is in panick mode ?

    http://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/israel-warns-against-nuclear-compromise-iran-074044269.html

  67. Smith says:

    Sineva says:
    October 15, 2013 at 5:10 am

    That is right, and one can hope. But a persistent and damaging problem which till now no government or entity has been able to solve in Iran, has been the industry’s reluctance to pour money into research and development. Even the industry’s that have research and development departments are mostly for jokes. The problem is recognized by Mr Khamenei but, I do not think others in Iranian government, legislature and judiciary have any understanding of its importance (actually many of these corrupt people are involved in import businesses with exclusive licenses for their friends and family). Much like poor developing countries, Iran’s R&D is done almost exclusively by universities with almost no connection with industry and its needs.

    Then there is the problem of law which does not allow the development of entrepreneurship around R&D and a judiciary that does protect the intellectual property right of an Iranian inventor/discoverer. The story is long. Maybe because of current economic pressures, the situation changes in a year time as you say. I personally do not think so. There are so many corrupt people that do not want Iran to develop a proper knowledge based economy since this would kill their exclusive and personal rent they obtain in current inefficient and western dependent economy.

  68. BiBiJon says:

    http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/10/15/what-to-make-of-saudi-hand-wringing/gqey
    ===============================================================

    Or, for that matter, what to make of anybody else’s hand wringing.

    Expect the worst at first. KSA, Israel, UK, and France will be desperate and will sound all manner of alarms. It means absolutely nothing.

  69. fyi says:

    Smith says:

    October 15, 2013 at 12:10 pm

    Iran is not much different than many other non-Western countries excepting Japan.

    In Korea, the professors used to take the research money from the Korean Government and spend it on themselves; rather than on books, supplies, graduate students, equipment etc.

    It has become better lately because the political and industry leaders understand the importance of innovation to the physical survival of a resoure-poor country.

    In Iran, the constant oil income, has made people lazy.

    Thanks to the sanctions regime, that is changing now.

    But decades of work lies ahead.

    They need to model themselves on the United States and its permissive culture of innovation, experimentation, and risk-taking.

    I recall a computer program that had run for 24 hours incurring a large sum of money in computational costs.

    I offered to pay that cost but one of the professors stated: “Even if you are willing (regardless of my meager income), we won’t let you since that would/could lead to a culture in which no one would dare take a risk.”

  70. BiBiJon says:

    Among the reasons that US-Iran rapprochement is no longer just a nice to have:
    ==========================================================================

    http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=61990

    We read:

    “The emerging Saudi-Israeli alliance also reflects a recognition that the two countries have complementary “soft power” strengths that – when combined – could create a new superpower in the Middle East and arguably the world.”

  71. fyi says:

    BiBiJon says:

    October 15, 2013 at 12:25 pm

    Just propaganda.

  72. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 15, 2013 at 12:24 pm

    [[I recall a computer program that had run for 24 hours incurring a large sum of money in computational costs.

    I offered to pay that cost but one of the professors stated: “Even if you are willing (regardless of my meager income), we won’t let you since that would/could lead to a culture in which no one would dare take a risk.”]]

    Wow. This story must be written on a wall of gold. In a country like Iran, they would have skinned you for the money. That is why, we never see the emergence of something like the Bell Labs in a country like Iran. They would rather lick the boot of Americans like dogs and beg for American made implantable cardiac pace makers than pouring money into research and develop a risk taking and experimenting culture.

    After all, thinking is not encouraged, nor it is allowed in such societies, as even evident on this forum. Only money, rent, lies, hypocrisy, extortion, threats, torture, famil bazi and foul mouths are encouraged and propagated. God forbid the day that innovation, entrepreneurship and honesty see the day of light in Iran.

  73. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 15, 2013 at 12:29 pm

    I don’t think so. So far UK, France, KSA and Israel have been content to work through the US to secure their perceived advantages. Since the $12 billion grant to Egypt’s military dictator, the false flag CW operation in Syria, attempts by Bandar to bribe/threaten Putin, etc. they are starting to act on their own. It has become essential to put limits to this alliance of the allies and remind then who’s mother duck.

  74. Smith says:

    Qaddafi had warned them of this day specifically saying that after his regime there would be no one to keep check on security of the Medi waters: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24537376

  75. Smith says:

    A fast emerging field that has the potential to change industrial production in near future: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24528306

    One can only hope, Iran would pour money into research in this field. By pouring, I rather mean tsunami of funds for it. Since it is a new field, a country like Iran would be able to reach its forefront in a short period of time. It will have profound effects on the economy of Iran. But alas, import mafia corrupt hypocrites will never allow it. They would rather torture, kill and use sexual profanities to defend the “in-people” and promote fesad on earth.

  76. fyi says:

    BiBiJon says:

    October 15, 2013 at 12:47 pm

    Israel-KSA have zero potential of being any kind of superpower in the Near East.

    They could make problems but have no power of advancing enduring solutions.

  77. Smith says:

    More licking will be required as US has released another state of the art pacemaker: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-24535624

  78. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    Did the ten senators who sent that foolish letter to Obama, simply want to demonstrate they are loyal stooges of Aipac? I know that some of Patty Murray’s supporters were dismayed she signed that letter.

  79. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 15, 2013 at 1:41 pm

    I am not one to be impressed with zero this and infinity that.

    Advancing enduring solutions is not part of their agenda. Making problems is their forte, I agree. With the amount of money, foot soldier jehadis and sophisticated military hardware at their disposal, the ‘problem making’ can become/has become a major issue in need of countering, immediately.

  80. James Canning says:

    The Financial Times today reports that Zarif and Rouhani think they can make a deal with P5+1. Zarif had some interesting comments posted on Facebook.

  81. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Obama clearly was trying to avoid getting sucked into civil war in Syria. In the face of heavy pressure to get stuck into that war.

  82. Karl.. says:

    James

    And Bush was trying to avoid war in Afghanistan and Iraq too?

  83. James Canning says:

    Smith,

    You are dead wrong, to claim “all sanctions” already have been applied to Iran. Aipac wants a cutoff of all Iranian oil exports.

  84. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    After “9/11″ attacks, chances were zero the US would not attack the Taleban in Afghanistan.

    G W Bush in fact had serious reservations about the merits of attacking Iraq, and in national security meetings Bush noted a number of times Iraq had nothing to do with the “9/11″ attacks. Bush was played, manipulated, duped, etc etc etc. Thanks in no small way to gross incompetence on the part of Condoleezza Rice.

  85. Fiorangela says:

    Empty at October 14, 2013 at 11:55 pm

    Adam Szubin, of US Treasury Department Office of Terror Finance, will be present at the Geneva negotiations with Iran. His boss, Jack Lew, will remain at home to shake the last piggy bank.

    US appears to be running out of options: even by clipping its dollar til it’s worth only pennies, a scam as old as the ancient Romans, the US still doesn’t have enough pennies to short-change its creditors. Maybe that’s what the Pacific Pivot is all about — setting up the defensive barrier in anticipation of some very angry ombres cruising the Indian ocean. with guns.

    = = =

    I spoke too soon in including Colin Kahl in the category “smart, wise.” A member of the NIAC audience asked why it is that Iran, which has not attacked anyone in a few hundred years, and is signatory to NPT, is punished, while Israel, which has undeclared and unmonitored weapons, and has acted aggressively numerous times in its short life, gets favorable treatment and calls the shots on dealings with Iran.

    I have never heard a panelist respond to a question from the audience with the level of disrespect that Kahl displayed. Prefacing his response with the statement that he “had been to Israel 14 times in the past 3 years,” Kahl recited that Iran was an existential threat to Israel; Iran must live up to its obligations under NPT; Iran HAD, in the past, concealed activities and could not, therefore, be trusted; the US must guarantee Israel’s security and the rest of the litany one learns on trips to Israel. Ora pro nobis.

  86. Smith says:

    If Iran’s oil and gas exports are completely cut off, it would be the best thing that has happened to Iran in the past 400 years.

    Let’s pray that Iran no longer would be able to export even a drop of oil. Please dear God, stop this oil export business and associated garbage import business.

    Until, oil is being exported out of Iran, the Dutch Disease will never be cured. It is as if trying to cure a poisoning patient while still feeding him poison.

  87. Smith says:

    Fiorangela says:
    October 15, 2013 at 2:03 pm

    Only nuclear weapons can secure Iran.

    Not political activism of a few Americans in US.

    Not the conferences in expensive hotels.

    Iran is under existential threat by US and its cronies.

  88. nico says:

    James Canning says:
    October 15, 2013 at 1:47 pm
    “Did the ten senators who sent that foolish letter to Obama, simply want to demonstrate they are loyal stooges of Aipac? I know that some of Patty Murray’s supporters were dismayed she signed that letter.”

    I guess they are simply degenerated.
    I mean to keep some level of credibility one needs to have sensible position with some finesse.
    They simply believe in their own scam.
    However that could also be interpreted as an idioticly harsh position in order to play the bad cop.
    Anyway their position is totally bankrupt and everyone know that.
    I think, they will not be able to defend it if confronted with a reasonable alternate position from the US government.

  89. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    One can understand why a senator from New Jersey or New York would be eager to be seen as an Aipac stooge, but the same circumstances do not obtain for Washington State. Possibly, Patty Murray has little understanding of the nuclear negotiations with Iran.

  90. Fiorangela says:

    Smith says: October 15, 2013 at 2:15 pm

    Agreed, Smith: Iran is under existential threat by US and its cronies.

    ===

    Today NIAC hosted Prince Faisal, Aaron David Miller, Shireen Hunter, and an aide to Ehud Barak (iirc).

    No one represented the people of the United States of America.

    Kahl travelled to Israel 14 times.

    Wonder how many times he travelled to Chillecothe, Ohio, or Berkeley Springs, WVa, or Minotte, Minnesota to listen to and speak to the American people who function at street level — raise children, support schools, volunteer for Meals on Wheels, fundraise for the local library. Perhaps Kahl thinks we are not smart enough to think the big and complicated thoughts it takes to cast Iran as a demon and Israel as a saint.

  91. Fiorangela says:

    Does anyone know anything about an innovative banking system being test-driven in Utah?

  92. Smith says:

    fyi,

    Lately I have been thinking about scientist-priest phenomenon. People like Gregor Mendel who contributed immensely to material sciences while being priests. And it is not only Christianity, there are scientist-priests in Judaism and even Ramanujan though not a priest per say had strong Hindu religious background so much so that he used to claim his discoveries in mathematics used to come to him in his dreams through avatar of Hindu goddess Lakshmi. Why we do not have scientist-akhond? Why akhonds have not contributed to modern material sciences?

  93. fyi says:

    Smith says:

    October 15, 2013 at 4:41 pm

    Western Christians polities – not the United States – are the exceptions to the rule of mankind; which seems to be to reach a certain level of spiritual and material comfort and then atrophy there.

    The period of time between the 9-th Century to late 13-th Century was marked by the Christian Brethren – especially those organized in the Franciscan and Dominican Orders – who were pursuing a “scientific” program to construct a coherent understanding of the World as well as the Revelations.

    They were the Doctors of Philosophy whose advice was sought for centuries by the Church leaders as well as the Princes, Dukes, and others.

    The formula used by Galileo for a body sliding down an inclined plane was first derived by one of those Doctors 2 hundred years earlier.

    The scientific program that they were pursuing died for 2 reasons; in my opinion: the Black Death that killed the best minds and 2: the failure of the Medieval Psychology in devising a system – based on the categories of the Aristotle’s philosophy – to account for human mind and human understanding.

    The specific person you have mentioned, the late Gregor Mendel actually was an anomaly since by his time empirical sciences was an inhospitable place for believing scientists. The late Abbe Lemaitre and the late Pierre Duhem also were anomalies – the last one suffered at the hands of the scientific establishment in France who sent him to inner exile for much of his professional life; bestowing honors and riches on lesser men.

    As for Iranian mullahs; 800 years ago Reason died and with it any vestiges of scientific thinking in these ancient schools in Iran and elsewhere; schools organized on the pattern of Plato’s Academy. Specifically, the Platonic Trivium of Logic, Grammar, and Rhetoric was kept but without any reference of Philosophy – which was considered “Haram” in deed if not in fact.

    But the other 4 out of the 7 Liberal Arts, the Platonic Quadrivium of Arithmetic, Geometry, Music, and Astronomy was abandoned.

    You lose the use of that which you do not exercise.

  94. kooshy says:

    Fiorangela says:
    October 15, 2013 at 3:17 pm

    Fior

    Things one can find in Utah that can be called innovative, are mostly god given good powder snow, and beautiful scenery.

  95. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 15, 2013 at 5:05 pm

    Thank you so much for you elaborate response. I really appreciate it. I must say it is also sad to realize that in contrast there is not even a single “anomaly” among akhonds even compared to Hinduism. Is there any way to revive reason in Iran, now that it has been dead for 800 years?

  96. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 15, 2013 at 5:05 pm

    And since current generations in Iran are lost and about to be gone, what would you recommend the coming generations? What they should read, learn, educate themselves about to revive reason amongst them? How can they become risk loving world class scientists?

  97. Smith says:

    fyi,

    Your point on rarity of the phenomenon raises another problem. I used to think the epitome of human progress depended on fusion of spiritualism of one kind or other with empirical sciences and a citizen of such a human society would be by default a scientist-priest. Does this rarity mean that such a vision is wrong? Since empirical sciences have reached a unitary consensus (unlike religions) which among world religions and spiritual practices you see as most compatible to create scientist-priest? (Or rather most amenable to adjust to sciences)

  98. Smith says:

    روحانی افزود: مگر دانشگاهی می‌تواند به مراتب والای علمی خود دست یابد، اما استاد کلاس در بیان عقاید خود آزاد نباشد؟ برخی تلاش می‌کنند ۷۵ یا ۷۶ میلیون جمعیت کشور را ضرب در دو کنند؛ یعنی همه دو چهره داشته باشند. یک جا که بحث نمره و ارتقا و شغل است با یک چهره. آنجا که زندگی آزاد است با چهره دیگر. این را ما نمی‌خواهیم.

    عزیزان من، دانشجویان عزیز و بزرگوار، اساتید، مسئولان، وزرا، نمایندگان مجلس، فرهیختگان؛ شما بدانید اگر جو را امنیتی کردید، نفاق را توسعه دادید.

    Some sense?

    http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/351198/%D8%B4%D9%85%D8%A7-%D9%85%DB%8C%E2%80%8C%DA%AF%D9%88%DB%8C%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%B1%D9%88%DB%8C-%D9%BE%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C%D9%85-%D9%82%D8%A8%D9%88%D9%84-%D9%88%D9%84%DB%8C

  99. Fiorangela says:

    kooshy says:
    October 15, 2013 at 5:17 pm

    kooshy, safe bet you are a skier?

    Don’t ski too near to Salt Lake City –

    The NSA data center is just outside Salt Lake City, and about a hundred miles west, in a valley inhabited by a few dozen remnants of the Tooele indian tribe is Dugway, the US military’s highly toxic testing ground for everything from firebombing techniques & materiel used to destroy Germany in WWII, to US chem-bio research, to drone testing. http://www.dugway.army.mil/ The Indians are considering plans to use Dugway as a nuclear waste dump. They need the money, but the scheme will kill the natives.

  100. James Canning says:

    Fiorangela,

    Colin Kahl apparently has a course at Georgetown U this academic year: “SEST-652 Iran and the Bomb”.

  101. fyi says:

    Smith says:
    October 15, 2013 at 5:44 pm

    Empirical sciences do not have a unitary consensus; their aims, methodologies, ontologies, and philosophical categories are a vastly different an cannot be reduced to one another – not even in principle.

    I think the only viable vision is a human society in which every one could be a saint and is a saint.

  102. fyi says:

    Smith says:
    October 15, 2013 at 5:59 pm

    Yes, that is why it has been a catastrophe that the 8-th Article of Iranian Constitution has not been implemented.

    Evidently, only harassing women for their clothing is worth raising a stink about – poisoning the population does not come under the “Prohibition of Vice”.

    Deplorable.

  103. fyi says:

    Smith says:
    October 15, 2013 at 5:32 pm

    I have no idea.

  104. fyi says:

    Smith says:
    October 15, 2013 at 5:29 pm

    I do not find India’s record that remarkable: 100 years and we have the late Bose, the late Ramanujan, the late Raman, the late Chanrdasekhar – over a hundred years in a population of 1 billion.

    You need to take a look at the scientific output of Holland, or Israel to get a sense of the vast chasm that exists between the Western Civilization and everyone else.

  105. Fiorangela says:

    James Canning — remember Matthew Kroenig who enjoyed his 15 seconds of fame by writing that Iran MUST be bombed?

    Colin Kahl was his mentor and boss at the Pentagon.

  106. kooshy says:

    “Breaking: Glenn Greenwald Will Leave Guardian To Create New News Organization”

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article36539.htm

    I remember when CNN started; under Ted Turner I hope this will not become another tool of propaganda like CNN or Aljazeera back stabbing those who hope for a new window to breath fair and balance,
    I hope he makes a pledge not to sell himself and his media to US/Western News making Entertainment Corporation likes of Fox and Time and NBC

    Fior
    With or without NSA, salt lake is still a depressing city to live in, there is more life in any small town in central or South America or Europe. They can do that city a lot of good if they can be innovative to create a little life for that city.

  107. Rehmat says:

    On October 2, 2013, American Jewish writer and author, Stephen Lendman, posted on his blog: “Israeli and US anti-Iranian hostility is longstanding. Nothing suggests likely change. Obama’s telephonic outreach to President Rohani means nothing. Hardline US policy remains firm. Netanyahu’s demands are way over-the-top. No nation would accept them. None should. He insists Iran forego its legitimate rights.”

    http://rehmat1.com/2013/10/16/rouhani-obama-and-the-scrooge/

  108. nico says:

    http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs/middle-east-north-africa/328477-obama-administration-says-its-ready-to-quickly-lift-sanctions-on-iran

    “The Obama administration said Monday it’s ready to “quickly” lift sanctions on Iran if the country answers the international community’s concerns about its nuclear program.
    The comments on the eve of new negotiations in Geneva are at odds with the position of many lawmakers of both parties in Congress, who want to increase — not decrease — the pressure on Iran.”

  109. Karl.. says:

    nico
    October 16, 2013 at 3:38 am

    More nonsense. Besides obama cant even lift sanctions.

  110. BiBiJon says:

    Nasser says:
    October 16, 2013 at 1:03 am

    Paul Pillar’s answer: http://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/nixons-principles-multipolar-middle-east-9245

    “What the United States needs is not Nixon’s drama but rather observance of Nixon’s strategic principles, including the principle that none of the foreign interlocutors of the United States should have a veto over the shape of relations with any of its other interlocutors. Observe those principles, and U.S. interests in the Middle East will be far better served than they have been for a long time.”

  111. BiBiJon says:

    Karl.. says:
    October 16, 2013 at 6:42 am

    Bloomberg’s Alix Sreel reports that Robert (Bob) McNally, international energy market consultant and President of The Rapidan Group, says Obama can issue 180 day wavers to oil importers, or simply turn a blind eye to sanctions violations essentially allowing China, for example, to import as much Iranian oil as she likes. Either way, she reports, Iranian oil will be getting to the market unhindered with those ‘purely’ presidential actions.

    See at 1:29 mark http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-president-obama-can-lift-iran-oil-sanctions-sPI_80bRSOGjvx7R6MoTTw.html

    In addition, I am not aware that POTUS needs congressional permission to table or revoke sanction resolutions at the UN Security Council.

    If you have any specific information negating the above, please share. Fyi had previously cited Mr. Hass in terms of sanctions ‘legislations’ are outside of Obama’s control. Rather an an obvious point, but not germane to Obama’s freedom of ‘executive’ action.

  112. fyi says:

    BiBiJon says:

    October 16, 2013 at 9:09 am

    Mr. Obama cannot alter the sanctions against the Central Bank of Iran.

    The best he could do is to instruct the US Treasury Department to ignore the sort of arrangements that evidently has been put in place in Oman to receive Indian oil.

    This serves the Americans as well; they have been harming their so-called allies for a while with the oil sanctions.

    I think in practical terms these sort of things correspond to a sort of financial/economic cease-fire but not peace.

    Iranians still have to try to wean their economy from oil; they have to eliminate their dependence on imported fuel and spare parts, they have to selll all of their oil and gas on the spot market.

  113. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 16, 2013 at 9:20 am

    Good. We are getting somewhere. The point I am trying to make, and you seem to affirm, is that, SHOULD Obama want to cut a deal which would involve cessation of economic war on Iran, then he DOES have the levers at his disposal. Right?

  114. fyi says:

    BiBiJon says:

    October 16, 2013 at 7:04 am

    The late Richard Nixon’s advise, to which the US leaders have adhered to ever since it was proferred back in 1980s, has been for the United States to only cooperate with Islamic Republic of Iran tactically.

    I wonder if he would have altered his advise now?

    Probably not, given the fact that Iran and America are on opposite sides of so many issues.

  115. fyi says:

    BiBiJon says:

    October 16, 2013 at 9:36 am

    No he does not.

    He cannot dismantle the war.

    Imagine a walled-city under siege.

    This basically means that the besieging soldiers are still there but some paths are available for commerce between the city and the outside world which are not too rigorously patrolled by the besieging soldiers.

    You can look at the Spanish Armies in the Netherlands….

  116. Karl.. says:

    Bibijon

    My understanding is that he need congress either way (for lifting both unilateral+ UN sanctions), taken in regard how hawkish congress is on IRan I dont think obama will neglect the support by the congress on this one, that could backfire on him.
    But thats my understanding, I dont know if it is factual correct.

  117. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 16, 2013 at 9:52 am

    Just to be on the same page, let me define a term or two. A state of war in its customary usage does not exist between Iran and US. There’s an economic siege, there’s cyber war, there was special ops/assassinations, and there is diplomatic isolation tug and pull.

    Last first. On the diplomatic side we have telephone conversation, and pleasantries proffered; Indeed as far as straight out acknowledgement/praise of Iran’s “election”, and Rouhani’s popular mandate.

    Unless cyber war, and assassinations rear their ugly heads again, we can assume there’s a ceasefire that is holding.

    In short, there is no “war” for him to dismantle.

    There is an economic siege, which with punching a hole here and there, will be no seige at all.

    I recognize the subject matter is much larger. But again, are you affirming or denying Obama does have unilateral control over all the levers he needs to stop the economic/diplomatic siege of Iran?

  118. fyi says:

    BiBiJon says:

    October 16, 2013 at 10:20 am

    He does not have unilateral control over the levers of economic siege war.

    Like the Spanish Armies in the Netherlands, he and the United States are stuck.

    Keep telling yourself that there is no war, you may come to believe it.

  119. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 16, 2013 at 10:28 am

    “Keep telling yourself that there is no war, you may come to believe it.”

    And I thought in among your many consistencies was your having a penchant for polite, reasoned discourse.

    I am (painfully) aware of your thesis predicated on relegious war, fallen man, General Motor’s disease infiltrating American elites, Islamic disaster, etc. I find all of that exquisitely inapplicable to real world situations.

    China’s Xinhua brazenly, publicly and in English no less, called for “a de-Americanized world.” KSA, UK and France are running about doing their own thing, first in Libya and then in Syria. Obama was a no show at the Asian summit. Afghanistan continues to be a disaster. South America has taken decidedly left, anti-American turn. Russia sent warships to counter the US in the Med.

    US cannot afford crisis of choice. It can barely cope with ntural conflagrations. Iran looms large as a low-hanging fruit. Obama is about to pick it. The dividends are substantial and irresistible. The voices against rapprochement are inconsequential, indicated by how loud they are screaming. You would not need to be this loud if you were let inside the room.

    Obama does have unilateral authority to make peace, and quickly.

  120. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 16, 2013 at 11:00 am

    Thanks, but I cannot handle cheese.

  121. Karl.. says:

    There is no need to talk about lifting sanctions anyway that is not in the offering.

    What we will see is rather that US etc offering plane parts and other useless reward.

  122. fyi says:

    BiJon says:

    October 16, 2013 at 10:52 am

    Resolution of US problems with Iran is not worth that much to US leaders; indeed all of the Axis Powers leaders.

    Since they are convinced of the ultimate success of their objective of regime implosion, a la USSR, they are not ready for settlement with Iran.

    The economic war against Iran by the Axis Powers started in 2008.

    It peaked in 2011 and has continued since then.

    France, Spain, Italy, Greece, South Korea, India, Japan have suffered and absorbed losses due to this war – yet they were willing to go along with this war since they were assured by the King and the Barons that the victory is just around the corner.

    By early 2013, it became clear that there was no victory in sight against Iran.

    Some of the Satraps – namely in Korea and Japan – started complaining about a war with no end in sight.

    Likewise powerless states such as South Africa, Sri Lanka, Italy and Greece.

    And by August of this year it became clear to the entire world – outside of the Axis Powers – including Iranian leaders – that destruction of the Islamic Republic – economically or militarily – remained the foremost strategic objective of the Axis Powers.

    Given all of these considerations, I find it unpersuasive to the extreme to think Mr. Obama or the Barons in the European Union are on the verge of declaring defeat and going home.

    The most I could agree with is that Mr. Obama has got too much on his plate at the moment to pursue the current course of action to the exclusion of other pressing matters; specially after the revolt of the peasants in the House of Commons against the English Baron(s).

    A tactical cease-fire, until the war could be resumed with more vigor later, is all that is in the cards; in my opinion.

    You have to understand countries like India and France who bore huge costs in the war against Iran and now they are angry that the assurances given to them by Americans turned out to be false.

    Iranians are going to make a few strategically meaningless concessions, Americans are going to ease-up on the repatriation of oil revenue to Iran, and that would the end of this.

    I expect more US sanctions against Iran:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-16/america-s-plan-to-reward-iran-without-lifting-sanctions.html

    which would prolong the life of the sanctions regime against; I expect the sanctions against Iran to have become largely neutralized – in practice – by 2017.

    But like any war, the legacy of this war will have consequences both for Iran and for others – almost all of them negative for the International System.

  123. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 16, 2013 at 11:22 am

    Second time you’re linking Jeffery Goldberg’s piece which is channeling Mark Dubowitz. An Israel-firster telling us what another Israel-firster thinks. How informative.

    Answer me this. What is US going to get out of all this war business, destruction of Iran as unitary state, etc?

  124. BiBiJon says:

    MSM on why US needs to bridge the gap of mistrust
    ============================================

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/10/16/the-forgotten-story-of-iran-air-flight-655/

  125. fyi says:

    BiBiJon says:

    October 16, 2013 at 11:50 am

    Ask US leaders.

    The Oman channel for repatriating funds from India has been established per Mr. Goldberg’s allusions.

    Expect more of them.

  126. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 16, 2013 at 11:56 am

    “The Oman channel for repatriating funds from India has been established per Mr. Goldberg’s allusions.”

    You get it backwards. The Oman bank story happened first. Goldberg is catching up trying to make out it is Dubowitz’s idea. It isn’t. This is part of a series of covert ‘stand downs’ by US to gain Iran’s trust; no KSA/UK/France/Israel representatives were consulted.
    .

  127. Karl.. says:

    EU says its the most detailed proposal ever by Iran, oh so good huh, lets see if EU themselves have presented the most detailed proposal too or are they stuck in the old thinking?

  128. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 16, 2013 at 11:56 am

    Also, lets not belittle the Oman bank story. Obama and Rouhani need only one trusted channel. It will do nicely for all future transactions. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bank Markazi officials didn’t take residence in Muscat to directly supervise the money flow.

  129. kooshy says:

    Bibijon

    A sign that this round of negotiations has advanced to a stage of a possible reciprocation deal is that for the first time, technical staff from the AEOI and also Sanctions experts from US’s DoT were in the negotiation team.

    We soon will know if US/Obama needs a DEAL or an EVENT, the sign would be WH/Rice reaction, if she can close her big mouth.

  130. nico says:

    http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GECON-01-161013.html

    A good summary of the western abysmal financial situation with historic background.

  131. Karl.. says:

    Wasnt kerry supposed to be part of the talks?

  132. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Obama can be taken at face value when he says he does not seek regime change in Iran.
    Aipac wants regime change in Iran. Israel too. Obama could be forced to seek regime change in Iran, however.

  133. James Canning says:

    Fiorangela,

    One wonders whether donations to Georgetown U are linked in any way, to Colin Kahl’s academic programme there (“Iran and the Bomb”).

  134. Karl.. says:

    James

    Who said obama as an individual seeks regime change?

  135. James Canning says:

    Fiorangela,

    Matthew Kroenig is also at Georgetown University, where he campaigns against any reduction in US nukes. “A smaller [American] atomic arsenal isn’t just wishful thinking – - it’s bad strategy” (Foreign Policy 2012)

  136. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 16, 2013 at 12:43 pm

    “Russian Assessment of the past 2 days of talks in Geneva [no guarantees]”

    I am shocked. Russia pouring cold water on Iran-US thaw in relations?

    Alternatively:

    http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/US-official-lauds-most-intense-detailed-straightforward-and-candid-talks-with-Iran-ever-328890

  137. James Canning says:

    Jim Lobe today (at Lobelog.com) has pertinent comments about P5+1 negotiations. He notes that Obama administration is “hinting” it will tacitly accept Iranian enrichment to low levels, and that some Gulf Arabs, especially from Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are concenred a deal with Iran will enable Iran to grow considerably in power even while Iran supports the Syrian government in its civil war.
    Unstated, is obvious concern about potential for more unrest in Shia areas of KSA, and in Bahrain.

  138. James Canning says:

    BiBiJon,

    I think Lavrov has made it clear Russia would like to see an improvement in US relations with Iran, as part of a deal with P5+1.

  139. James Canning says:

    BibIJon,

    Good report (that you linked, from Jerusalem Post).

  140. James Canning says:

    Leading neocon warmonger, John Bolton, in the Guardian today: “Ignore the ‘moderate’ smokescreen. Sanctions have failed, so our choice is stark: use military force or let Tehran get the bomb.”

  141. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 16, 2013 at 2:14 pm

    That is the correct assessment by Mr. Bolton.

    All of this could have been avoided if one listened carefully to Sir John Quinlan’s speech so many years ago in Herzliya.

  142. James Canning says:

    The Cable reports today that Aipac has mobilised powerful Democrats in the US Congress, in support of its effort to wreck the negotiations with Iran.

  143. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    John Bolton has earned his reputation as a warmonger. And he is simply dead wrong. As are you. Chances Obama would allow Iran to build nukes are zero, in my view.

  144. Karl.. says:

    James

    Iran have rights to enrich. You still havent learned that they will not become dependent on US or any other power for 5+% enrichment. What Iran offer is apparently a possible Additional Protocol signing in a dal.

  145. Karl.. says:

    James
    October 16, 2013 at 2:29 pm

    Its zero chance Israel will leave West bank too, do you support that too perhaps?

  146. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 16, 2013 at 2:17 pm

    Back in 2008,

    Michael Quinlan, senior consulting fellow on South Asia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and guest lecturer for the Department of War Studies at Kings College London, ruled out military force against Iran as an option to stop the radical regime. And he said in order to have a long-term effect, there needed to be regime change in Iran.

    In the case of imposing economic and political sanctions, they have to be carefully designed, said Quinlan, who has held senior positions in the British defense establishment and NATO.

    The first level of sanctions could include measures such as a boycott of Iranian students, athletes and cultural exchanges, as well as trade embargoes, said Quinlan. But he admitted that Iran was not likely to bow to such pressures.

    The second level would need to be much more severe, including economic sanctions that would also be hard on countries with which Iran has trade relations, said Quinlan.

    At this level, the West might have to agree not to use force to try to change the Iranian regime and not to support those who would attempt to do so as part of a deal. A necessary element in a long-term bargain would be to ensure Iranian compliance through agreements, he said.

    See more at: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/europe-doesnt-grasp-iranian-threat-israeli-lawmaker-says#sthash.LdzBN2ld.dpuf

  147. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    I think you are wrong to think there is “zero” chance Israel will get out of the West Bank. I think Israel will be obliged to get out of most of the WB.

  148. fyi says:

    BiBiJon says:

    October 16, 2013 at 2:53 pm

    And in 2002, in Herzliya, he concluded his presentation by stating that Iran will get nuclear weapons essentially because the conditions for guranteeing her security cannot be met.

  149. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    The late Sir Michael Quinlan surely was right to say in 2008 that a deal with Iran would need to provide for long-term assurance of compliance. And an assurance of no regime change.

  150. Karl.. says:

    James

    Ok but there is no obligation on obama to accept Iran’s legal rights you say?

    You see, just as Israel is wrong on settlements, so is Obama on Iran.

  151. fyi says:

    Karl.. says:

    October 16, 2013 at 2:42 pm

    I agree with you.

    The type of pressure that would cause Israel to leave West Bank is not politically possible.

    Everytime a German official goes to Israel, he is taken to Yad wa Shim and then Germans dutifully give another U-boat to Israel.

    Likewise with Italy, France, Romania, Hungary, Poland, Holland, Belgium.

    With the United States, they do not have to do anything to get what they want; there are very many Jews and non-Jews in US who have doubtful loyalty to the United States but firm loyalty to State of Israel.

  152. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 16, 2013 at 3:26 pm

    Long term deal with Iran – based on Axis Powers’ parameters – is not feasible.

    Temporary deals might be viable, depending on their contents.

    The only long-term deal with Iran is what I have outlined before.

  153. kooshy says:

    Bibijon

    Another change is the name of 5+1 formation no longer is called 5+1 it seems now is officially called E3/EU + 3 meaning that UNSC Permanency is no longer emphasized why?

    http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/10/16/329731/most-detailed-talks-held-with-iran/

  154. Karl.. says:

    kooshy

    Its because EU is not a member of UNSC, thus for EU its always EU3+3

  155. kooshy says:

    Looks like frame work of a deal has been agreed to otherwise sanctions and Other technical experts wouldn’t start this early

    “Representatives from the two sides are to meet again in Geneva for talks on Nov. 7 and 8. Nuclear and sanctions experts from the two sides are to meet before then to discuss technical issues.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/17/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-talks.html?_r

  156. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    Germany is not a permanent member of UNSC, thus E3 (or EU3) + 3. Or, P5 + 1.

  157. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    Surely you comprehend Obama could not possibly accept “Iran’s rights”, as part of a deal. Politically impossible.

    The nuclear dispute has made it much easier for Israel to continue to grow the illegal colonies of Jews in the West Bank, and to refuse to get out of WB.

  158. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    I think it is clear Iran can have a domestic nuclear power programme, but an effort to enable building nukes quickly likely would mean no deal, and ultimately, no nuclear programme.

  159. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 16, 2013 at 6:39 pm

    Define “quickly” please.

  160. fyi says:

    All:

    A 1000 MWe atomic power plant, operating 90% of the time, requires about 125,000 – 140,000 kg SWUs per year of enrichment capability.

    It takes about 4500 – 5000 kg SWUs to make some sort of a nuclear bomb.

    Thus a facility that is sized to support a single power plant can instead make the fuel for about 30 bombs per year. Or one every 12 days.

    And if Iran instead starts from 4.0% enriched U that they have on hand, only about 1400 kg SWUs are needed, a bomb about every 4 days.

    This evidently presents a problem if Axs Powers want to keep many months away from enriching enough uranium for a nuclear weapon.

    On the other hand, Axis Powers claim that eventually they also want to “permit” Iran the right to provide fuel for its reactor(s), as a member in good standing of the NPT.

    Their aims and their declarations are incompatible.

    Oh, yes, Iranians can have a toy enrichment facility for playing – that is about the sum of it.

  161. kooshy says:

    fyi says:
    October 16, 2013 at 8:11 pm

    I don’t know if a detente will happen or not but all evidence shows you are getting to uncomfortable and acting too irritated about it be cool no one is going to level Haifa, not now. Just keep your hopes high the rest will be up to whatever you believe in. I am not too optimistic but hopeful for a good outcome. You are not? Like I thought you got exposed a while back just be comfortable and say the way you wish to be no need for cover of wanting all good for Iran.

  162. Karl.. says:

    James

    Surely you comprehend Israel could not possibly accept “International law”, as part of a deal. Politically impossible.

  163. A concerned world citizen says:

    Observing the recent ongoing talks in Geneva, and the tectonic plates shifting across board, I can’t help but laugh at how Russia, China, assorted Gulf Arab Sheikhs feel cheated by the US..

    These countries signed up on the US initiated bellicose diplomacy with Iran and hoped to reap the benefits within the shortest possible time. They’d hoped Iran will fold within months, like they thought Syria would fold withing weeks(Obama’s words). Of course neither of these fantasies happened and reality’s now staring at their collective faces. The cost is becoming too high to bare. It’s become clear that any Iran-US rapprochement is bad news for all the states involved.

    Russia lost billions in defence contacts with Iran due to this. Iran’s never signed any defense contract with Russia since Medvedev stupidly prevented the sale of S-300 to Iran on US orders. I heard Iran’s also reviewing some business deals signed with India during Mahmoud jan’s time in office. They now have to pay fair price for oil and such. What were they thinking?

    There’s reason to be optimistic about the outcome of the recent talks. Both parties are simply tired of fighting. A partial ceasefire is now needed for both sides to go back to their drawing boards and come up with better plans for hurting the other – the war’s not over by any stretch, just a slight pause. The US can’t dismantle the Islamic republic despite all attempts, for 30+ years – even to the detriment of their own allies.

    On the other hand, IF no deal is reached(worse case scenario) , the implication in the region will be disastrous. The Saudis and their minions, Turks, Israelis are all pissed at how the US cut them out of the picture and went straight to negotiate with Iran without consulting them first – the nerve!!! Turkey’s already made that clear by opting for a CHINESE missile over US ones.

    Sigh…..Interesting times… :)

  164. BiBiJon says:

    The Human Rights Cottage Industry
    ==============================

    On the same day that a new study finds “approximately a half million deaths in Iraq could be attributable to” Tony Blair’s invasion and occupation of Iraq because he ‘dossiered’ that Saddam could mount a chemical attack on UK in 45 minutes (1), the Guardian reports “At least 125 people have been executed in Iran since Hassan Rouhani took office as president in August.” (2)

    I can assure Saeed Kamali Dehghan that not a single one of the half million who died because of Tony Blair’s invasion of Iraq happened to possess a a kilo of crystal meth, had a lawyer representing them in court, had been charged, prosecuted or sentenced according to a penal code approved by people’s representatives in a Parliament.

    The fastidious, hand wringing, heart aching folks at the Guardian are so (not) meticulous with their propaganda that they continue to list Nasrin Sotoudeh as a prisoner of conscience, even though Saeed himself reported her release from prison on September 18, a month ago.

    I am not without sympathy. The heart aching cottage industrialists have deep psychological needs too. A little exaggeration here, a bit of a flat out lie there is a small price to pay to have something, anything to feel righteous about.

    (1) h/t Juan Cole http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.1001533#abstract1

    (2) www dot theguardian dot com/world/2013/oct/16/iranian-man-execution-hanged-alireza-meth

  165. Karl.. says:

    James

    Its EU3+3

    Check for yourself.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU_three

  166. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 16, 2013 at 8:11 pm

    There’s a simple solution to this dilemma. A Swiss-owned and operated uranium repository. It would have a binding contract to receive all UF6 feed stock from Isfahan, and all enriched Uranium from Natanz and Fordow. It will release these materails for the sole purpose and to the exact quantity required for fueling reactors. It would be authorized to export any excess, and import to cover any short-fall of necessary materials. It could also own and operate a plant for converting enriched UF6 into uranium oxide. Its operations would be under strict Iranian and IAEA inspection regimes. It can be in operation as soon as a suitable secure warehouse can be found, i.e. within days.

  167. fyi says:

    BiBiJon says:

    October 17, 2013 at 10:04 am

    Iran is a sovereign state and does not need these types of colonial arrangements.

    “Binding COntract” means nothing to the Axis Powers leaders and planners.

    They have abused international treaties and instruments for far too long.

  168. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 17, 2013 at 10:15 am

    ‘Things’ are what they are. There’s a lot to be said for being skeptical, and pointing out problems, potentials for abuse, etc. And, there’s lot to be said for finding solutions, resolving an “unnecessary crisis.”

    I continue to hope that the optimists and the pessimists hang on to their shirts as this preordained agreements unfold.

  169. fyi says:

    All:

    Mr. Abrams on Evangelicals support for Israel:

    http://mosaicmagazine.com/supplemental/2013/10/two-words/

  170. fyi says:

    BiBiJon says:

    October 17, 2013 at 10:32 am

    There is no solution; there is no arrangement that could satisfy the Axis Powers, and, at the same time, to secure the cohesion and continued existence of Iran.

    Like many others, you think this “un-necessary” crisis is something that Iranian action – short of surrender – can resolve.

    You are wrong.

  171. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 17, 2013 at 10:35 am

    Keep your shirt on, I say.

    DNI, Clapper, and POTUS acknowledge Iran is a threshold nuclear state. It has everything it needs to make nukes if it decides to.

    Not only it is not a surrender, it is hugely to Iran’s benefit to assure the international community that it has not made a decision to build nukes. Any ambiguity in that regard, is as bad as testing an actual device; it will open the floodgates to every despot in the mid east to acquire weapons of their own; they just need to call Shimon Perez, he will be as happy to oblige as he had been when peddling nukes to fellow apartheid SA.

  172. fyi says:

    BiBiJon says:

    October 17, 2013 at 10:52 am

    You wrote:

    “floodgates to every despot in the mid east to acquire weapons of their own”

    That is a canard.

    Which despot in the Middle East has the technological and organizational ability to build nuclear weapons?

    Iraq? which is destroyed.

    Egypt? not ever.

    Algeria? Yes, a very distant maybe – but then she will not be a threat to Iran.

    Saudi Arabia? You best travel there and gauge their technical capabilities.

    Turkey? Not as long as she is a NATO member.

  173. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 17, 2013 at 11:28 am

    In case you lost your shirt before getting to this part, I repeat:

    “they just need to call Shimon Perez.” Acquiring does not require building your own.

  174. Richard Steven Hack says:

    A more realistic appraisal than the wishful reporting I’m seeing everywhere…

    Russia tepid about results of Iran nuclear talks
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/16/us-iran-nuclear-russia-idUSBRE99F0P920131016

    “The positions of the Iranian side and the group (of six powers) are wide apart from each other – the distance can be measured in kilometers, while advances forward can be measured in steps – half a meter each.”

  175. Karl.. says:

    RSH

    Strangely Russians are often the most positive, now west seems more positive. Maybe Russia loose ‘something’ in a deal..

  176. kooshy says:

    Look who are the most pessimistic guys here RSH,FYI and his warmup white man act. Relax guys nothing happened yet they may even agree to keep Haifa ( if they can convince SL)
    But If this goes through you guys learn what Iranians have been saying about politic for centuries that is
    “Politics doesn’t have mother and father” meaning it can change in a dim for you or against you. If this goes through and situation goes to a milder relations would you guys support the detante and stop your irrelevant BS. I am asking for a SFU

  177. kooshy says:

    Karl.. says:October 17, 2013 at 12:03 pm

    They will lose some leverage on both sides. He later offered to take out all sanctions on exchange for western control of Iran nuclear energy . There is a Persian word for that is call “billakh” meaning go and F yourself

  178. James Canning says:

    The Financial Times today has a very interesting report on the business interests of the Revolutionary Guards, in Iran and elsewhere. Well worth reading.

  179. Karl.. says:

    Chad, Lithuania, Chile, Nigeria, Saudiarabia picked to the Security Council.

    All handpicked by the US?

  180. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    I think you are virtually delusional about Iranian “surrender”. Surrender of what? The benefits of a stunted economy etc etc?

  181. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Interesting comments by Eliott Abrams that you linked. He refers to the “liberal ‘mainline’ Protestant groups [with] pervasive and deep hostility to the Jewish state.” You agree with Abrams?

    Some American Jews are a bit embarrassed that the fanatical “pro-Israel” Evangelical Protestants often pray for hellfire and damnation for all Jews who failr to convert to Christianity.

  182. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Elliott Abrams is concerned that Palestinian Christians are increasingly educating American Protestants to see that Israel is oppressing Christians in the West Bank, thanks in good part to foolish “support” from American Evangelical Christian Zionists.
    Not to mention discrimination against Christians in Israel itself.

  183. James Canning says:

    BiBiJon,

    Tony Blair clearly helped deceive the American public, to set up illegal invasion of Iraq. I am not sure he favored the idiotic disbanding of the Iraqi army and security services, which of course produced civil war.

  184. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    I agree Israel will not accept international law, and that forcing Israel out of the West Bank will take many years.

  185. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    Russia strongly supports a deal on Iran, but is aware of difficulties. Likely decline in oil prices if deal achieved, is relatively minor “loss” for Russia.

  186. fyi says:

    BiBiJon says:

    October 17, 2013 at 11:45 am

    You are virtually delusional if you think someone is going to sell nuclear weapons to anyone outside of a very strict alliance structure.

    Israel did not sell nuclear weapons to South Africa.

    The way it is, no nuclear technology will be transferred to any Muslim-majority polity anytime soon lest someone in those polities gets the bright idea of using nuclear materials in a suicide operation.

    For the same reason, no nuclear weapons will be sold to Saudi Arabia or any other Arab or Muslim state.

    Imagine an attack on the United States by UAE citizen using a nuclear weapon bought from Pakistan.

    Perez can stuff it.

  187. Karl.. says:

    James

    So we should “force” Israel but not obama for not following international law?

  188. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    Yes, in the interests of peace in ME: force Israel out of the West Bank. And in interests of peace in ME: make a deal with Iran that necessarily does not allow all rights arguably available under NPT.

  189. James Canning says:

    Scott McConnell at the American Conservative today bashes Senator Paul Kirk of Illinois (who made the foolish claim in the Daily Telegraph that Geneva in 2013 was same situation as Munich in 1938).

  190. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Israel was helping South Africa to obtain nukes.

  191. kooshy says:

    Karl if you can read Persian just TODAY Fars News happen to published an amylases on Russia /Iran relations, very much the question you asked
    * آیا مسکو واقعا نگران تنش‌زدایی بین تهران و واشنگتن است؟
    پاسخ این سؤال را به طور خلاصه می‌توان چنین داد: «تقریبا خیر». به عکس برخی تحلیل‌های سطحی کوچه و بازاری، تحلیل روس‌ها از ایران به نظر صاحب‌ این قلم، تحلیلی هویت‌محور است. این تحلیل هویت ایرانیان را در بازی بین‌المللی ترکیبی از دو هویت ملی و هویت اسلامی باز می‌شناسد:
    - See more at: http://farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=13920725000486#sthash.FkqQuR1H.dpuf

  192. Unknown Unknowns says:

    In Teheran, the daily newspaper Keyhan, of which the director is none other than the Supreme Leader’s spokesperson, stirred a sharp controversy. According to the paper, the Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister, Mohamad Javad Zarif, and the president, Sheikh Hassan Rouhani, are allegedly in the middle of a serious disagreement over how to approach the dialogue with the United States.

    Mr. Zarif supposedly would have disapproved of the 15-minute telephone conversation between the Iranian and American presidents, as well as the prolonged meeting with the Secretary of State John Kerry.

    Although M. Zarif denied theses allegations, Keyhan maintained them. The minister later declared being drained by this affair, and was admitted to the hospital.

    The comments attributed to Mohammad Javad Zarif aren’t the only criticisms leveled against the president. General Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, while congratulating sheikh Rohani for his diplomatic initiative, has qualified the telephone exchange as a ’’tactical error’’.

    Translation
    Alizée Ville

  193. James Canning says:

    I highly recommend Peter Oborne’s column in the Daily Telegraph Oct 16: “Iran is not Nazi Germany, whatever low-calibre American lawmakers might think”. (Telegraph.co.uk)

  194. James Canning says:

    An interesting question is whether Senator Kirk of Illinois is in fact so appallingly ignorant about history, and Munich, as he represented himself to be (in his article saying Geneva 2013 was like Munich in 1938). Or is Kirk pretending, so that he can act as a stooge of Aipac in trying to block any deal with Iran?

  195. James Canning says:

    Unknown Unknowns,

    Surely it was not a “tactical error”, for Rouhani to accept a telephone call from Obama.

    You might enjoy the report on business operations of the Revolutionary Guards, in today’s FT.

  196. BiBiJon says:

    fyi says:
    October 17, 2013 at 1:59 pm

    “You are virtually delusional if you think someone is going to sell nuclear weapons to anyone outside of a very strict alliance structure”

    According to the book “Rendez-vous – the psychoanalysis of François Mitterrand”:

    “Margaret Thatcher forced François Mitterrand to give her the codes to disable Argentina’s deadly French-made missiles during the Falklands war”

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/nov/22/books.france

  197. fyi says:

    kooshy says:

    October 17, 2013 at 2:21 pm

    I really do not think that Iran can get much out of Russia under Mr. Putin.

    I think the current situation between Russia and Iran could persist indefinietly in which UNSC is paralzyed against Iran and bilateral trade between Russia and Iran stays less than $ 1.5 billion a year.

    Several years agao, Iranians suggested setting up a Joint Venture/Joint Stock Corporation with all littoral states of the Caspian Sea to deal with its resources.

    That was a clever and creative idea for sharing inthe Caspian Sea’s resources without getting bogged down in intricate political problems of demarcation of the sea and its legal status.

    It went nowhere; nobody likes Iran nor wants to cooperate with Iran.

    Iran is an unpleasant fact for most of the countries around her – excepting Christian Armenia.

  198. Karl.. says:

    James

    According to whom? Yourself? Why do you say Israel must follow international law but not obama?

    kooshy

    Thanks for the link, will look into that.

  199. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    I said Israel should be forced out of the West Bank, in interests of Middle East peace. Same reason I support a deal with Iran that Obama will be able to proceed with. Otherwise, obviously, there would be no deal.

  200. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    I think Putin is doing his best to facilitate a deal between Iran and P5+1. This is a good thing for Iran, on part of Putin.

  201. James Canning says:

    Marco Rubio, an especially ardent Aipac stooge in the US Senate, is pushing jor more sanctions against Iran. Rubio is from Florida, which in itself says a good deal.

  202. kooshy says:

    BiBiJon says:
    October 17, 2013 at 5:50 pm

    Bibi this exact deal they could have get 2 years ago, I remember debating with Arnold, voluntary stop 20% convert to fuel plates what is stocked, inspection to the roof, etc.
    Now out of desperation, with a nicer gentler smiley new president it is the deal we the west always asked for and wanted but the Iranians didn’t give!!!!, I say great, take it don’t spoil it again. I don’t think Iran’s SNSC will accept less no matter if the president is Walt Disney.

  203. kooshy says:

    Asked by CNN why Szubin came, Sherman said, “The purpose of having our sanctions team here with us is because … Iran wants to get sanctions relief. But they also have to understand what the range of our sanctions are, what they require, how they work, what it takes to implement sanctions relief, what sanctions we believe need to stay in place.”

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/10/iran-nuclear-freeze-proposal.html#ixzz2i1SHslXu

    The guy is there to show Iranians how they can use the loopholes and backdoors since legally removing the sanctions needs the American Knesset’s permission

  204. kooshy says:

    Here is another pissed-off Iranian wanting to get even with western propaganda outlets.

    “eBay Founder Commits $250m to New Media Venture with Glenn Greenwald”

    “Pierre Omidyar says decision to set up news organisation fuelled by ‘concern about press freedoms in the US and around the world’”

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article36561.htm

  205. kooshy says:

    Sounds like the UNSC just got ready with her new Halloween “decorations”, it is a new special setup named “Return of Unelected, Uncontested western lovely little Dictators”

    “Rights groups lament Security Council seats for Chad, Saudi Arabia,” and Nigeria

    http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-un-security-council-saudi-arabia-chad-20131017,0,5200025.story

  206. kooshy says:

    Who could believe that these guys are supposed to be a fair representation for the security of the world? This need and will have to change can’t be continued as is

    Chad, Chile, Lithuania, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia were elected Thursday to seats on the 15-member United Nations Security Council for two-year.
    The new Council members replace Azerbaijan, Guatemala, Morocco, Pakistan and Togo.

  207. Unknown Unknowns says:

    Kooshy-san says, “American Knesset”. Good one! I hope and pray you (and Bibi Khanum) are right. Also interesting about Omidyar. Chaker.

  208. Unknown Unknowns says:

    Saheb James:

    The various premises in the article on the Guards you recommended in the FT are, predictably, absurd. This paragraph reveals the patent absurdity of the swill your favorite rag continues to peddle:

    “The suspicion is rooted in the 2009 election when the opposition Green Movement accused the Guards of engineering an “electoral coup” to have Mr Ahmadi-Nejad re-elected through allegedly large-scale fraud. But analysts believe Ayatollah Khamenei ordered the commanders not to interfere in this year’s contest.”

    Pitiful. Except I do not pity you and your cohorts. Nor will God, as He has made abundantly clear.

    But let us put aside all the false assumptions and false premises and assume for the same of the argument that Iran’s economy is hopelessly flawed from within due to corruption of its Praetorian Guards. Fine. But what about the state of affairs of YOUR miserable little system which, even when it is working at full efficiency, does nothing more than enslave 99% of the populace to the will of the 1% who skim the cream (and the 1% of that 1% who further bloat their clogged arteries in their continuing consumption orgy)? What about the state of affairs of your miserable little system, whose sole *purpose* is the enslavement of mankind? Go ahead and prance about on the global stage, Gav’nar Dorian Gray, as your Portrait gets more and even more grotesque in the attic of your soul.

    For my part, I’ll put on a couple of extra logs on the Fire for you, just to keep things toasty.

  209. nico says:

    http://news.antiwar.com/2013/10/17/details-emerge-of-irans-nuclear-proposal/

    Good sum up of the Al Monitor article already linked previously here.
    That seems workable and as stated by Iran will truly test western goodwill.
    No agreement on that offer with full lifting of the embargo would provide a rationale to leave NPT.

    After Mahmoud time as mresident and Iran gaining ground in its program and destroying western hope about no enrichment in Iran, now Iran is in good position to barter chips.

    However nothing is done yet. One only need to see the NK example where the US forsake their own words and commitments.
    Sure the US had no interest in peace there and need hotspots to maintain their policy of meddling in others affairs.
    Specialy that close to China and with Japan and SK as their minions to be kept under the Empire control.

    Let’s see if the same calculus obtains in the Iranian case with the sheikdoms and Israel as the minions and SCO as the enemy.

    “While the proposal itself remains confidential among the nations involved in this week’s conference, details of Iran’s nuclear proposal to the P5+1 have leaked into the regional press, with many things we had already assumed, and some that hadn’t been discussed previously.
    Under the plan, Iran would agree to a full stop of its 20 percent uranium enrichment, and would convert all of its existing stock to fuel rods for the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR), the US-built medical isotope reactor. All enrichment at Fordo would end, and the underground facility would be converted into a research center. Natanz would remain open for enrichment, though the negotiations are discussing the level and scope of that enrichment still.Regarding previous reports of Iran offering additional transparency above and beyond that required by their current safeguards agreement, the report now is that Iran will ratify the Additional Protocol to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), which governs more stringent reporting requirements.Serious discussion is also being had about the still-under-construction Arak reactor, with Iran agreeing to leave handling spent fuel at the site to the IAEA. This is important because the spent fuel would contain plutonium, and with reprocessing could be weaponized (though Iran has no such reprocessing facility either existing or planned).
    Officials have to a man expressed optimism about the negotiations, though Western diplomats sought to tamp down expectations that a deal could be finalized at the November 7-8 meetings, saying there’s much more discussion before a deal is done.That’s in keeping with Iran’s position as well, as they have reportedly sought to finalize a deal within six months, and a lot of details about timetables and sanctions easing have to be worked out, which will take time.”

  210. BiBiJon says:

    BS, Public BS, PBS
    ==================

    Stephen Walt: “a key part of the problem is a lack of accountability within our entire political system, and maybe even our entire society.”

    Prof. Walt doesn’t mention it, but a crucial element of ‘accountability’ is a free independent press. If journalists are not accountable, then surely the rest of the crap will follow.

    Case in point is a Michael Gordon of the NY Times. Some may recall his breathless, frontpage stories in the NY Times which helped lead the country to a war of aggression on Iraq (1). Forget about the half million Iraqi men, women and children who perished because of that war. Just consider that US suffered some 30,000 dead and wounded, trillions (with an S) spent, and US’ international standing and credibility took a nose dive all with the help of Mr. Gordon’s so-called reporting.

    Accountability? Mockingability!
    —————————–

    Fast forward. On PBS’ News Hour we get this (2)

    Quote:
    —–

    RAY SUAREZ: From the very beginning of this confrontation, Iran has insisted it is not seeking the means to make a nuclear weapon, that it is enriching radioactive materials in order to have electric power plants and medical uses.

    The rest of the world has been saying, if you need those things, we will get them for you and don’t want you to enrich. Has Iran explained why it must retain the ability to enrich to the levels that you have been talking about?

    MICHAEL GORDON: Well, Iranian officials have made a number of arguments.

    Sometimes, they say they have invested so much in these facilities, they can’t just write off that investment. Sometimes, they say it’s a matter of national pride. Basically, they say they have the right. They claim they have a legal right to enrich under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, a point that — on which the Americans haven’t conceded, at least in these talks, although they have sometimes acknowledged it in the past.

    You know, the point is, if there’s going to be a compromise, it seems very likely that Iraq — Iran will have to retain the right to enrich to some degree, but that it will have to be done under very tight monitoring and very close scrutiny.

    End Quote
    ———

    That’s right folks. Michael Gordon actually said “Iraq” (old habits become immortal when there’s no accountability). Is it possible Suarez doesn’t know that denying Iran nuclear fuel plates used for the sole purpose of making nuclear medicines for 800,000 cancer patients was used as a way of political coercion? Sometimes they say this, sometimes they say that, Gordon gets to impugn. No, there’s a 20 year history of nuclear fuel embargo, see http://original.antiwar.com/sahimi/2009/11/02/can-iran-trust-russia-and-france-with-its-uranium/

    Frankly, Prof. Walt, you are barking up the wrong tree. It is Ray Suarezes, and Micheal Gordons of this world that primarily make it impossible to “run this country.”

    (1) www dot nytimes dot com/2002/09/08/world/threats-responses-iraqis-us-says-hussein-intensifies-quest-for-bomb-parts.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

    (2) www dot pbs dot org/newshour/bb/world/july-dec13/iran2_10-16.html

    (Walt) walt dot foreignpolicy dot com/posts/2013/10/17/can_anybody_run_this_country

  211. Karl.. says:

    kooshy

    Weird, apparently Saudi dont want a seat now according to the news.

  212. kooshy says:

    البته می دانیم که گروهی مایل به نتیجه رسیدن این مذاکرات نیستند. بیشترین واهمه از موفقیت مذاکرات را صهیونیست ها دارند و با توجه به حضور پررنگ این گروه در رسانه های غربی احتمال تلاش های متنوع و بعضی وقت ها عجیب و غریب آنها برای برهم زدن مذاکره بسیار زیاد است. حتی دیده ایم که تازگی ها رسانه های صهیونیستی حامی بازدارندگی ایران شده اند و هرگونه توافق هسته ای را برهم زننده این بازدارندگی توصیف کرده اند. این ها همه نشانه استیصال جنگ طلبان است، و من یقین دارم که حنای این عده رنگی برای مردم ما ندارد.
    - See more at: http://farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=13920726000181#sthash.gz315mnY.dpuf

    Mr. Zarif’s new facebook entry, he basicly denies what was published by Barbara Slavin’s as what was Iran’s offer acording to her reliable Iranian source, he also mentiones that some and specificly the zionists arent happy if negotiations comes to an agrement and they are gone haywire. He says with zionist colorfull and strong presence in western media they will try various methods to distroupt the negotiations , even in a way that newly they are woried if Iran is losing and giving up her rights, these all is sign of despration ( sounds familiar, hum any body here is gone off balance thinking of a possible soloution). At the end he uses a very popular Iranian proverb he says I am sure “ their hana has no more color left in it” for our pepole.

  213. BiBiJon says:

    Nikolas K. Gvosdev: Foreign Policy is a reflection domestic policy
    ============================================================

    http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13308/the-realist-prism-u-s-global-politics-align-to-make-iran-deal-possible

    Actually, it is simpler than that.

    Iran is beyond developing, she is a rising power. Look at its scientific growth, HDI growth, industrial growth, and growth in technology in aerospace, nano, and yes nuclear fields. That she has wracked up this growth DESPITE sanctions, and every manner of hostility and demonization thrown at her is testament to a simple fact: Iran’s human potential has been unleashed, and there’s no stopping it.

    Here we come to a “decision point.” Does the US want to be a petulant witness to Iran’s rise while maintaining an exquisite, but irrational enmity towards her?

    Iranian officials, including the SL repeatedly have said for three decades Iran wants nothing but a friendly relations with all countries, including the US.

    If the US is lucky, she has made the right decision.

  214. James Canning says:

    BiBiJon,

    Michael Gordon of NYT should have mentioned Iran has offered to suspend enriching to 20%, a number of times. (If he did not, on PBS Newshour programme you mentioned.)

  215. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    Are you actually claiming the US “had no interest in peace” in Korea? Absurd.

  216. James Canning says:

    Unknown Unknowns,

    Obviously there were allegations from the “Greens”, that the 2009 election had been rigged. Allegations, but no proof.

    You think Khamenei did not suggest no effort to block election of Rouhani should be made?

    I think the more interesting bits of the FT report on the Revolutionary Guards were the various apparent business interests and dealings.

  217. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 18, 2013 at 1:25 pm

    The leaders of the Green Movement lied; they lied to the Iraian people and mostly to their followers.

    I do not understand why they are not tried under the same laws that have been used to jail so many others; namely “defaming the Islamic System”.

    I suppose they have powerful friends…

  218. James Canning says:

    Unknown Unknowns,

    I do not think the FT reporter who did that piece believes Iran’s economic system is “hopelessly flawed”, due to the obvious power and influence of the Revolutionary Guards.

    Understanding the workings of any country’s economy necessitates identifying the primary players, and the sources of their power and influence.

  219. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    I very much regretted all the noise put forth by the “Greens”, after the 2009 Iranian presidential election. A good deal of it was ill-advised, in my view.

  220. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 18, 2013 at 1:33 pm

    Mostly the politically alienated from Tehran….

  221. James Canning says:

    Unknown Unknowns,

    The Financial Times this week has a very interesting report on holdings of US Government debt, by foreign countries. China holds the most, and increased its holdings by 10% this past year.

  222. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    One can have sympathy for the discontented, but regret the damage they did at the time. (Greens, in their reaction to 2009 Iranian election)

  223. nico says:

    James Canning says:
    October 18, 2013 at 1:21 pm
    “Nico,Are you actually claiming the US “had no interest in peace” in Korea? Absurd.”

    Where do you get the idea that the US do not aim to keep meddling in others businesses ?
    Does hundreds of US military bases around the world support your claim ?
    What is absurd ? your position or mine ?

  224. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    The Saudis are not pleased the UNSC fails to get Israel out of the West Bank. We know why UNSC is unable to get the job done.

  225. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    I of course dislike the proliferation of US bases around the world, but the US obviously wants peace in Korea. As does China. And Russia. And Japan.

  226. Karl.. says:

    James

    Saudi give up UNSC because they care about palestinians? Come on man.
    Saudiarabia have probably more ties to ISrael than it have to the palestinians.

  227. nico says:

    James Canning says:
    October 18, 2013 at 2:15 pm
    “Nico,I of course dislike the proliferation of US bases around the world, but the US obviously wants peace in Korea. As does China. And Russia. And Japan.”

    As usual you play with words and spohism.
    Do the US want war ? No.
    Do the US play dirty game in order to keep the region subjugated in a divide and rule policy ? Yes.
    Is such US position morally justifiable. No.
    Do you support such US immoral policies. Obviously yes. It is right line of UK devide and rule, colonialist and supremacist policies you support so much. And your leading and sophistic questions are one more proof of that
    No need to have further exchange with you.
    You are intellectually dishonest. And your play of word is offensive and insulting.

    Get off.

  228. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    “Divide and rule” what? US in fact supports reunification of Korea.

    The divisions in the ME are partly the fault of the US, true. Other countries play key roles, however.

  229. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    The Saudis want Israel out of the West Bank. Iranian blunders have forced the Saudis to get closer to Israel. Iran in effect has interfered with efforts to get Israel out of the WB.

  230. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    The Guradian today reports the anger of Saudi Arabia at UNSC inaction on Israel/Palestine problem.

  231. kooshy says:

    Unknown Unknowns says:
    October 17, 2013 at 11:35 pm

    Kooshy-san says, “American Knesset”. Good one! I hope and pray you (and Bibi Khanum) are right. Also interesting about Omidyar. Chaker.

    UU Jaan Salam

    Hope all is well, on the other hand I think better to call the congress “Knesset west” since this one is just the western subsidiary of the one in in east of Atlantic.
    I think this is an easy sell to the Americans if you remember during Regan his SB ranch was called the western white house, so for them seat of government being here in the states or in Tel Aviv works as long as
    They can drink beer and watch football.

    On being hopeful, I am in the same boat as you are just hopeful and not with willing to compromise any of Iran’s long-term rights (a Technical heroic flexibility move is ok) if the O guy needs and can take that and justify he got what he always asked for (same as his case in Syria), that is ok with me and I would think that is about same line as Bibi goes by. From what I understand Iran for some time has the japan option capability, therefore she can tactically show some technical short term flexibility without giving up any of her treaty rights, that is if the other side for her domestic consumption finds necessary to show some form of winning, that is fine with me since I believe ayatollah Khamenei is not the man willing to give up any of Iran’s rights, if he was he would have done so a long time ago regardless who is the president and what pressure is on.

  232. nico says:

    James Canning says
    :October 18, 2013 at 3:24 pm

    Liar.
    You mean like malvina or gibraltar ?

  233. Karl.. says:

    James

    Well obviously you believe everything Saudis say. Saudis blunders in the region have caused Iran to become more suspicious of that regime.

  234. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    You should remember I think Saudi support for civil war in Syria is not a good thing.

    But I think it is not in doubt that Saudi Arabia would like to see Israel out of the West Bank.

  235. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    “Liar” as to what? You contend the US does not want Korea reunified?

  236. Smith says:

    Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy on Islam and Science: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th5JSZVWjKE

  237. fyi says:

    Smith says:
    October 18, 2013 at 8:19 pm

    I was sorry to watch this young man still avoiding to face the historical reality.

    Yes, someone invented Logarithms in Isfahan before Napier but there was no use for it in Iran and it died.

  238. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 18, 2013 at 8:47 pm

    He is stretching to prove an untruth. A great cause of anomalies of these people are their consistent falsification of history and overstretching it to fit their biases. Hypocrites. Worshipers in a “cargo cult”.

    Recently it was discovered that even plants are capable of arithmetic calculations and use logarithms; actually employing it in their daily lives. But they are incapable of using it to affect anything beyond themselves in the world. Even if someone had invented transistor and tenecteplase in Shiraz and Isphehan 1100 years, without realizing a use for them then, his performance was worse than even the plant’s which actually use their “knowledge” of math to their advantage in their daily lives even without having “consciousness”.

    It is said, that during a UNICEF conference in 1960′s about educational goals in developing countries, the representative of Pakistan introduced a proposal to ban the teaching of philosophy in developing countries. The proposal was rejected. But Pakistan went ahead with its program to curtail the teaching of philosophy and logic. The case of countries like Iran or even Turkey is no more different. Despite huge differences between these people, their faith and their lives, one thing that binds them together is their long standing animosity to thinking and allowing the use of reason. They do not, can not and will not risk the possibility of a thinking society/culture.

  239. M.Ali says:

    I still don’t know why fyi and Smith want Iran to have nukes, given all the negativity that is assigned to these Iranian natives.

    If what you guys say is right about Iranians, then them having nukes, will have these consequences:

    1) Corrupt import/export bazaris will sell the nukes to terrorists to make themselves richer, because thats all they care about

    2) Bearded basiji idiots won’t understand the technology that well and one of them will blow it by mistake

    3) The Islamic Disaster will be strengthened, because when the IRI hits the people on the heads with batons for stupid, Islamic reasons, imagine how harder they will use the batons once they are confident their government is here to stay

    I just can not imagine two people who have so many bad things to say about a country, they are idiots, they are corrupt, hypocrites, are thousand of years behind technology, none of their views on science, religion, material world, spirituality, family, society is even CLOSE to the brilliant western viewpoints, and that these people have no hope, no future, and no way out. But then these people say, okay, lets give these people nukes!!

    For two people who seemed to love the west for their Logic, you two don’t seem to be able to use it much yourself.

    But hey, I guess, if according to you guys, Iranians are illogical, corrupt, stupid, backward, hypocrites, I can’t say its a completely wrong statement. We do have, at least, two Iranians here as proof of that. I’m not sure about the rest though.

  240. Karl.. says:

    Traitor lindsay graham push for more sanctions.

    Quite sickening when you have american politicians going against their president to serve another regime.

  241. Rehmat says:

    Sheera Frenkel, staff writer for the Jewish BuzzFeed, posted an article on October 17, 2013, saying: “What If Iran Already Has A Nuke?”. On which American Jewish blogger Roger Tucker commented: “And what if that bomb was where it would do the most good, in the heart of Tel Aviv? Well, one can daydream”.

    http://rehmat1.com/2013/10/19/iran-may-have-planted-a-nuke-in-tel-aviv/

  242. fyi says:

    M.Ali says:
    October 19, 2013 at 6:38 am

    You do not seem to grasp the main cause of my concern; the nuclear test of Pakistan and India in 1998.

    Those 2 countries share many problems with Iran yet one must arm himself.

    As for Islamic Disaster in Iran; you know very well that someday it will come to and end; once the state’s security organs stop intimidating, humiliating, and otherwise beating people on the head in their misguided attempt at imposition of some sort of Islamic Piety acceptable to a brick layer.

  243. nico says:

    M. Ali

    The degenerate free mason “philisopher” wanna small elite to lead toward the enlightment against the populace will.

    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/10/house-stenographer-yanked-from-chamber-ranting-about-god-freemasons/

    fyi is godless and surely a free mason. Insulting everyone not happy with his civilizational project to be hitler and mao worshipers. Exactly in the same way as the proponents of the shoah business, the gay propaganda and the neocons comparing a US Iran deal to a new Munich.

    Someone said the degenerate western way ? Well fyi is fully into that.

  244. Jay says:

    M. Ali and Karl,

    My post is not directed toward your discussion with others, rather it is touches upon the general subject being discussed.

    Ignorance and prejudice is a condition of man. Belief system, a man made device, has been used for good and evil – men and women have been at the helm of both uses. Conflating the condition of man with his or her place of birth or system of belief strikes one of a form of suppressed racism.

    It is not that the man is from Pakistan or that he is a muslim – we all know good scientists of Pakistani muslim origin! The real threat has always been the absence of full accountability – this holds under any man made system. To gain a sense of balance, one need consider the rising tide of anti-science in the US as an example – and, the increasing science-hostile trends in Canada under Mr. Harper as another.

    One cannot deter ignorance and prejudice with nuclear weapons! An omnicidal weapon, justified on the basis of an untested theory of deterrence, appears to be a thin argument to me. Some may recall the running debate regarding the legitimacy of the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the West. A military man may theorize that a primitively armed nuclear weapon state will not respond to the use of a tactical nuclear weapon. How does that jibe with the argument for deterrence? As technological tools improve, a not too distant future holds the possibility of small nuclear weapons built by non-state actors. How does deterrence work then?

    Which brings me to Lindsay Graham. Mr. Graham is using the ignorance and prejudice of his constituency to serve himself! HE is the only regime he serves! His religion serves HIM, his district serves HIM, his alliance serves HIM. He is no longer held accountable, in any real sense, because the system of accountability in the West is broken at so many levels.

  245. fyi says:

    Jay says:
    October 19, 2013 at 11:48 am

    You wrote:

    “One cannot deter ignorance and prejudice with nuclear weapons!”

    Certainly one can deter the ignorant and the prejudiced who wish one ill with nuclear weapons; it will concentrate their minds like a death sentence.

    Wars are fought on an escalation ladder.

    Iran does not have enough ladders on her escalation ladder nor she has the industrial and scientific prowess to create them in less than 50 years time.

    This fact must be faced.

    Further, she was attacked by WMD and her population centers were threatened with WMD attacks.

    This fact must also be faced.

    Iran is within striking distance of 4 nuclear weapons states without any strategic understanding or cooperation with any of them.

    This fact must also be faced.

    A financial nuclear bomb has been used against Iran by Axis Powers (they tried to do the same thing against Russia; they were threatened back by Russia).

    This fact must be faced as well.

    Iran is surrounded by unfriendly or hostile states – excepting Christian Armenia and hopefully Iraq.

    That must also be faced as a fact.

    Now you go ahead and theorize as much as you like about infeasibility of MAD, nuclear deterrence etc.

    A warrior’s is only backed by his sword.

    Put other way, preparing oneself for national extinction is not a sane national strategy.

  246. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 19, 2013 at 12:32 pm

    Nuclear deterrence is the only deterrence that has ever worked in the history of humanity. It is backed by solid mathematical proofs unlike the ignorants who are talking here.

    Even Pakistan has a sound nuclear deterrence doctrine: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_doctrine_of_Pakistan

    We read as part of the doctrine, Pakistan’s escalation ladder:

    * A public or private warning.

    * A demonstration atomic test of a small atomic device on its own soil (preferably at weapon-testing laboratories).

    * The use of (a) nuclear weapon(s) on Pakistan’s soil against foreign (or Indian) attacking forces.

    * The use of (a) nuclear weapon(s) against critical but purely military targets on foreign (or Indian) soil, probably in thinly populated areas in the desert or semi-desert, causing the least collateral damage.

    Thresholds of Pakistan nuclear deterrence:

    Military threshold:

    The complete knockout or comprehensive destruction of a large part of Pakistan Armed Forces, particularly and most importantly the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), could lead to a quick nuclear response if Islamabad believed that it was losing the cohesiveness of its defence and feared imminent defeat. A senior ranking PAF officer maintained that “orders given to PAF (and its missile command) are identical to the guidelines given to the NATO commanders during the Cold war crises. This criterion is even more important for the Pakistan Armed Forces because of its critical role in maintaining the country’s stability. As noted above, an attack on a nuclear installation has also been posited as a threshold. According to PAF, this level of threshold also included the chemical or biological weapons attack against Pakistan, would also respond to massive retaliation

    Spatial Threshold:

    The armed and military penetration of Indian Armed Forces into Pakistan on large scale may elicit a nuclearize massive retaliation, if and only if the Pakistan Army is unable to stop such intervention. For instance, many analysts, including some Indians, believe that the Indus Valley— the “lifeline” of Pakistan— is one of many other “red lines” that Indian forces should not cross. The capture of key objectives in this crucial northeast–southwest axis might well provoke nuclear retaliation by Pakistan.

    Economic Threshold:

    This level implicitly and explicitly refers for the countermeasure operations of Pakistan Navy. The economic strangulation and economic blackade is also a potential threat to Pakistan, in which if Pakistan Navy is unable to counter it effectively (for example, see operations: Trident and Python in 1971). This primarily refers to a potential Indian Navy blockade of Sindh Province and coastal cities of Balochistan Province, or the stopping of the Indus water flow. It could also refer to the capture of vital arteries such as the Indus.

    Political Threshold:

    Finally, Pakistan’s geostrategist, game theorists and political strategists and planners suggest that a destabilization of the country by India could also be a nuclear threshold if Islamabad has credible proves to believe that the integrity of the country were at stake. Stated scenarios are political destabilization or large-scale internal destabilization in which if Pakistan Marines (along with other paramilitary command) are unable to stabilized it effectively. One example would be encouraging the breakaway of one or more Pakistan’s provinces.

    And do not bring in drones at all. As the recently released UN report says, Pakistani military has been giving permission to US for the drone attacks: m.dawn.com/news/1050387/strong-evidence-pakistan-military-approved-us-drone-strikes-un-report

  247. Smith says:

    Iran remains defenseless surrounded by countries that have nuclear weapons. US (or the world for that matter) will not come to help Iran if anyone of them launch a nuclear attack against Iran. As it is today, Iran is too dehumainized and demonized for any help to be forthcoming. Pakistan, India, Israel, Turkey, Russia and China are all nuclear armed around Iran’s geography. NATO and US also surround Iran.

    My simple question is this: If tomorrow a country or an alliance launches half a dozen nukes at Iran hitting Tehran, Shiraz, Tabriz, Mashhad, Isphehand and Badar Abbas and the attacking force orders Iranians to commit mass suicide or else there will be more nuclear attacks, what would be the response of a non-nuclear Iran?

    a) beg Israel to protect Iran

    b) suck sexual organs of US to protect Iran

    c) write a letter of protest to Ban Ki Moon

    d) start crying like a baby in a crib

    e) admit defeat and commit mass suicide

  248. James Canning says:

    Reports by Wall Street Journal and New York Times today, on Saudi Arabia’s rejection of UNSC seat, failed to mention Saudi Arabia’s denunciation of the failure of the UNSC to pressure Israel to get rid of its nukes and force Israel out of the West Bank.
    Los Angeles Times report did cover this key aspect of the story.

  249. fyi says:

    Smith says:
    October 19, 2013 at 1:02 pm

    With the rise of the NAZI Germany in Central Europe, UK, France, Poland, and USSR had to decide how to deal with a new strategically autonomous power.

    USSR advocated a policy of containment based on a tri-lateral USSR-UK-France entente.

    UK rejected that policy, her planners, not grasping the salient lessons of the Peace of Vienna, opted for the trite notion of balance of power against the Revolutionary USSR.

    Munich was supposed to be the culmination of British Diplomacy – acknowledgement of the rise of the new power.

    Significantly, Americans were always willing to work with the NAZI Germany but not with USSR, which they considered to be illegitimate.

    They also considered PRC to be illegitimate until they had to acknowledge her existence.

    On the other hand, the English had no problem recognizing the new power in East Asia – People’s Republic of China.

    No analogy, specially historical ones, are perfect or quite matching.

    But I think it is safe to say that there is now a state with significant strategic autonomy that has emerged in West Asia – a state that has been capable of creating an alliance structure ab initio.

    Nothing like that had obtained in West Asia since the demise of the Ottoman Empire or perhaps since 1830.

    The emergence of this state has been an inconvenient fact for US, UK, France, USSR and her successor state, the Russian Federation.

    Unlike NAZI Germany, US, the Imperial Power of Today – does not see a need for this new power in balancing any other state.

    Neither does Russia or India.

    The planners of all these states think in the unsustainable balance of power terms rather than peace interest terms.

    The only Great Power that is not ill-disposed to this new power is People’s Republic of China.

    All of this means that the opposition of the Axis Powers, as well as the Russian Federation and the Indian Union, to the new Shia/Irani power – ushered in by the US Revolutionary War against the Ba’athist State of Iraq in 2003 – will remain as a corner-stone of the strategies of those states for the foreseeable future.

    Iranian leaders and planners should be under no illusion that the opposition to Iranian strategic autonomy by Axis Powers and by Russia or India is going to end any time soon – certainly not during the coming generation – 20 years or so.

    These states estimate that a strategically autonomous Iran is more of a threat to them than an opportunity.

    Since for more than 100 years Axis Powers and Russia have been playing their games at the expense of Muslim polities, they are not used to dealing with a state that opposes their hare-brained schemes and games.

    These are habits of thought that will not dies easily; men and women weaned on them must first die and a new generations of leaders come on to the scene who are not attached to ancient customs and views.

    That will take time.

  250. James Canning says:

    Report by Reuters, on Saudi rejecction of UNSC seat, also covered the key aspect of Israeli nukes and continuing occupation of the West Bank.

  251. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Russia, China, Germany, France, Britain and the UK all recognise that Iran would be more powerful today if it had not restarted enrichment of uranium etc etc and not incurred the sanctions.

    So, a more powerful Iran is not the problem you try to make it out to be.

  252. fyi says:

    Smith says:
    October 19, 2013 at 1:13 pm

    I think Iranian planners understand that; even Mr. Rafsanjani who advocates a “détente” policy with any and all understands that when people fled Tehran to avoid possible chemical attacks, nary a beep came out of any leader anywhere in the world.

    I think what must be grasped by the Iranian leaders and people, as well as the allied states and populations, that there is no détente possible with Axis Powers.

    Axis Powers, with close to a billion people, fully have expected and still expect to crush the new Shia/Irani power.

    Even though their financial nuclear war against Iran did not work; they expect to prevail nevertheless in an analogy with the demise of Warswa Pact and USSR.

  253. fyi says:

    James Canning says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:06 pm

    You are entitled to your opinion, as I am to mine.

  254. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Munich Sept. 1938 would have been a great success, had Hitler not been a madman. Basic problem was Htiler’s insane drive for power.

  255. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Of course you are entitled to your opinion, and of course I welcome your expression of it.

    Fact remains: Iran would be much richer and stronger todaqy, had it not restarted enriching uranium etc etc etc.

  256. James Canning says:

    Smith,

    Iranian leaders quite rightly see next to no danger Iran will be attacked by nukes sent from another country. Obviously would be insane. Loose nukes from Pakistan is probably the biggest potential danger.

  257. Jay says:

    fyi says:
    October 19, 2013 at 12:32 pm

    “Iran does not have enough ladders on her escalation ladder nor she has the industrial and scientific prowess to create them in less than 50 years time.”

    I understand the sentiment but suggest to you that this is an unproven assertion. There are numerous instruments for fighting a war that do not involve annihilation. All conflicts cause death and destruction, and conflicts in human history have a standing like no other. Yet many strategies have proven effective which do not involve superiority of weaponry.

    “Put other way, preparing oneself for national extinction is not a sane national strategy.”

    A dichotomous standing is not a sane strategy either. Rejecting a nuclear strategy is not tantamount to “preparing oneself for national extinction”. Prior to the de facto doctrine that declared nuclear weapons as the reason for pre-emptive war, a rational planner could have argued that MAD theory – as unproven as it is – is a viable strategy since its cost-benefit analytics favor its implementation. I assert that this is not the case today, and alternatives exist that deal with the facts that you suggest “must be faced”.

    In closing, I hope you recognize that the tone of my conversation is not personal, not agitated. I disagree with the assertions made regarding the MAD strategy, but am willing to have a discussion.

  258. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    You tend to overlook the fact the civil war in Syria to some extent was a direct outgrowth of Iran’s ill-considered decision to treble production of 20% U.

  259. Fiorangela says:

    fyi says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:02 pm

    With the possible exception of “the”, “and”, and “a,” every word you wrote was historically inaccurate rubbish, matched only by James Canning [saying what he] says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:10 pm which was even less accurate more rubbish-y cant.

    HDS© strikes again.

  260. Fiorangela says:

    James Canning says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:12 pm

  261. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    You claim Germany, UK, France and the US “threatened Russia”? In what way? Are you referring to some of the ardent stooges of the Israel lobby?

  262. fyi says:

    Jay says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:16 pm

    Thank you for your comments.

    I responded to your earlier hopes and assertions by certain facts about recent Iranian experience.

    Significantly, I have did not state anything about the sense of anger shared by almost all Iranians at their shabby treatments by Axis Powers, USSR, and now Indians and Arabs and Georgians and others.

    I had not mentioned the pervasive feeling of “Never Again” in regards to WMD attacks and threat thereof against Iran.

    History cannot be relived; the situation is what it is, and if you wish to have a discussion you need to address, at a minimum, the factual items that I have raised.

  263. fyi says:

    James Canning says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:20 pm

    Until late in 1939, the Imperial General Staff’s war plans called for war with USSR and not with Germany.

  264. fyi says:

    Fiorangela says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:18 pm

    Well thank you for your very detailed response to the opinions that I had expressed based on my reading and thinking.

  265. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:02 pm

    I agree. US even used to supply computers for sorting out Jews and other minorities out of German population.

    The aim of these imperial powers is not peace. It is war.

    Iran must have a fool proof shield protecting it from these crazies.

    Only nuclear weapons can construct such a shield for Iran.

  266. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:22 pm

    So true. When Iran was under WMD attack by Saddam, these guys were helping him.

    If tomorrow Israel/Pakistan or US nukes Iran, no body in the world would miss a beat.

    In fact they would blame Iran for it.

    As I have said times and again, Iran can build a fool proof nuclear deterrence by pointing nuclear weapons at England. A small isolated island. It would form an exceedingly effective MAD.

  267. James Canning says:

    Given the handling by the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, of the story of Saudi Arabia’s rejection of a seat on the UNSC, should one ask if those newspapers would prefer to ignore King Abdullah’s deep displeasure at Israel’s continuing oppression of the Palestinians and continuing possession of nukes, with nothing done by the UNSC to resolve these grave problems? Are these newspapers helping the US Congress in its continuing stupidity regarding these grave problems?

    Interestingly enough, a number of those who post on this site claim the Saudis are not concerned about Israel’s oppression of the Palestinians.

  268. fyi says:

    James Canning says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:17 pm

    You either have to accept Iran the way she is and work with her or oppose her.

    The King and the Barons – ever since the Mad King’s War of Conquest’s failure in Iraq – have decided to oppose Iran tooth and nail.

    The Vassals and Satraps, cunning as they are, have aided and abetted that.

    Once the Mad King’s War results came in, the King and the Barons could have decided to cut their losses and move on.

    They chose to do otherwise; they had committed a lot of resources – military, political, financial to write them off as very bad investments.

    I do not see any signs of any course correction yet among the King and his Barons – the minor revolt of the peasants against yet another Mad War – this time in Syria – not withstanding.

  269. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Yes, I agree. Accept Iran the way she is. I think this is obvious. But make sure no nukes, or ability to build nukes quickly.

  270. fyi says:

    Smith says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:31 pm

    Members of my family fled Tehran on a few occasions during Iran-Iraq War.

    At times, I had to call parents of school friends to verify that they were safe.

    And one has to recall the 100,000 soldiers who died due to chemical weapons and the tens of thousands who have been dying every day for the last 25 years.

    They had no chance.

    And they deserved better.

    Well, Never Again.

  271. fyi says:

    James Canning says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:33 pm

    Then you are not accepting Iran the way she is – a nuclear-weapon-ready state.

  272. Smith says:

    The Iranian nuclear weapons on 5 minute red alert pointed at England would ensure the peace. Only then any meaningful negotiation is possible for cooperation in the area of mutual global disarmament. I propose those who first got nukes, disarm first. Without such a model, Iran will be destroyed.

  273. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:35 pm

    I have many such stories too. Some of my own family, some of others. It was horrifying.

    When US intentionally shot down flight 655 sending a strong message to Iranian military commanders, Saddam as per Rafsanjani (chief commander of war at the time) sent a private warning to Iran, to accept UN security council resolution for ceasefire written by US or else he would start using chemical weapons on Iranian cities including Tehran.

    Iran capitulated. Leaving hundreds of square of kilometers of Iranian territory under occupation of Saddam forces. These territories were only returned to Iran when out of a divine miracle, Saddam was about to be attacked by US and Saddam pulled back his troops from Iranian territory.

    The Iranian commanders at the time had reached the conclusion that only nuclear weapons are effective at protecting Iran. No amount of blood and flesh could protect Iran. This lesson was learnt after over 100,000 tonnes of human flesh, bone and skin were destroyed.

  274. James Canning says:

    Smith,

    Surely you are aware Iran could have ended the war with Iraq years earlier.

    Your contention the USS Vincennes intentionally shot down the Iranian civilian airliner in 1988 is not proven. Best information I have seen is that it was a serious blunder, but not intentional.

  275. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Yes, Russia and China, and other powers, do not want Iran to be “nuclear-weapons ready”. This in fact is the core issue.

  276. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:25 pm

    She can do that.

    She can afford it.

    She is protected by a thick nuclear shield.

    She is safe.

    We are not.

  277. fyi says:

    James Canning says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:51 pm

    Well, Life is Tough, deal with it.

    The Power to undo the current nuclear-weapons-ready Iran does not exist in the International Arena – where Force and Legitimacy go hand in hand.

    Perhaps a nuclear-weapons-ready Iran is unacceptable to Axis Powers, Russia, India, and China.

    But I suggest to you that “Unacceptable” here means something like the Chinese Annexation of Tibet rather than Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.

  278. Smith says:

    Yesterday Iranian kids were seriously injured with some amputated after they hit a land mine in a playground. The mine, laid by Saddam and supplied by Europeans (Saddam used an Italian variant which was very difficult to detect due to its all plastic composition). Till this day, Iran is under sanctions and can not get modern demining equipment to eradicate mine infested areas with high certainty of sanitation. Expecting the same people who supplied these mines and then prevented Iran to clean them up to protect Iran is a folly: http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/352155/%D9%87%D9%81%D8%AA-%DA%A9%D9%88%D8%AF%DA%A9-%D9%85%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%AB%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%B2%D8%AE%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%B4%D8%AF%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%B1

  279. Karl.. says:

    James

    US, that had nukes first, didnt want anyone else to have them, did the world go under?

  280. Jay says:

    fyi says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:22 pm

    There is little dispute about facts on the ground. Iran lives in a “bad” neighborhood and must deal with an expansionist power axis.

    The proposed remedy is questionable, however.

    In the prevailing preemptive war paradigm, nuclear weapons pursuit is impractical because the timeline for MAD nuclear parity cannot be met – at least at this juncture. This is a calculable fact, and not a theory. There are other considerations as well.

    The dichotomous choice between nuclear weapons pursuit and surrender is false. Other choices that integrate a strategy of complete, decentralized, mostly autonomous, sustainable, and targeted conventional strike capability using high density warheads is entirely within reach. In other words, there are alternatives that convince a nuclear enemy state of the lose-lose proposition in case of war.

  281. fyi says:

    Jay says:
    October 19, 2013 at 3:45 pm

    The technological ability that you are alluding to – complete, decentralized, mostly autonomous, sustainable, and targeted conventional strike capability using high density warheads – does not exist in Iran and will take decades longer to create.

    Tunnels have to be dug and hardened, thermo-baric explosives developed etc.

    The current course of action, in my opinion, the most feasible one.

    Iran does not need MAD with continental USA or EU; what she needs MAD in such a manner that Axis Powers will be rendered a 3rd rate power in their war with Iran.

    In other words, Iran may be killed but Axis Powers come out of it severely crippled.

  282. Smith says:

    fyi says:
    October 19, 2013 at 4:00 pm

    That is true and one way of looking at it.

    Another would be to concentrate 70% of Iran’s nuclear fire power at one isolated small concentrated target eg. England. Due to its small geography even Iran’s small arsenal would be enough to kill such a target. Then MAD would hold. Specially taking into account that England has still quite a large potential for diplomacy left in it to try to stop Iran’s enemies from attacking Iran. Israel, Pakistan, India, America were all created by England. For the rest (China, Russia, N.Korea) England can bribe to keep them away from Iran. Iran’s survival would be tied with England’s. I am sure, English gentlemen would then know what they have got themselves in.

  283. Smith says:

    Pictures of Iranian kids suffering grave injuries (amputations) by European mines supplied to Saddam: http://iranwire.com/fa/ostanwire/news/3157

  284. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    In unfortunate event of hostilities, “killing” Iran would not be the object. That would be ridiculous.

  285. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Are you arguing that Iran can get by with no oil exports?

  286. Smith says:

    US help for Saddam against Iran in pictures by a foot soldier: http://francona.com/travels/iraq/

  287. James Canning says:

    Smith,

    Do you agree with FYI that Khomeini was wise to continue the war with Iraq for years after it could have been ended?

  288. Smith says:

    US releases 1.6 billion dollars in military aid to Pakistan: http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/19/politics/u-s-pakistan-aid/

    The US military aid to Pakistan is to be resumed after a two year lull when Osama was found living comfortably near a Pakistani military base.

  289. Sineva says:

    James Canning says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:06 pm
    No James,Iran may have been wealthier but that does not mean she would have been more powerful,wealth does not equal military power,indeed I think having a credible japan option with the real threat that any military action against her could lead her to take that final step is a pretty good deterrent,combine that with irans existing conventional arsenal and you can see why the axis powers would rather not pick a fight

  290. Sineva says:

    James Canning says:
    October 19, 2013 at 2:10 pm
    Yes,a great success pity about the betrayal of the czechs tho`.For gods sake it was hitlers insane drive for power that caused the Sudetenland crisis in the first place.The only success in that whole shameful episode was hitlers and it only embolden him further

  291. Avg American says:

    James Canning says:
    October 15, 2013 at 1:47 pm
    “Nico,

    Did the ten senators who sent that foolish letter to Obama, simply want to demonstrate they are loyal stooges of Aipac? I know that some of Patty Murray’s supporters were dismayed she signed that letter.”

    James,
    Even if Patty Murray did not understand the full magnitude of what she was signing and therefore endorsing it would be no excuse on her part. She holds a very powerful position and if she did not fully understand the full magnitude of this letter in terms of historical or current facts, as well as implications of the letter she should have done her constituents the least of all by basically “doing her job.” Perhaps she should be making informed decisions regardless of re-election concerns. Unfortunately, this is the theme among the US senate or US congress as a whole. Which is why the country is in a dreadful place currently. If I decided to do my own job like that, making uninformed decisions, I would be homeless. However, I am sure she did know exactly what she was doing.
    The US population needs to go on a diet, go back to school, cut up some credit cards, and read a book once in a while. Only then senators will have to be more accountable to a more educated population. Oh gosh, that might mean doing some work on both ends!

  292. Jay says:

    fyi says:
    October 19, 2013 at 4:00 pm

    “The technological ability that you are alluding to – … – does not exist in Iran…”

    The technology does not exist but the ability does. Note that the technology for deliverable nuclear warheads does not exist in Iran either.

    A defensive MAD strategy, even one without intercontinental capacity, requires system-level survivability through a first strike. A non-trivial system and infra-structure development! Iran cannot assume an offensive MAD position. In addition to technological obstacles, there are severe political obstacles, one of which is the pre-emptive war posture of the West.

    With respect to the overall technical ability, I believe Iran is closer than most suggest. For example, metal polymer mixture explosives may be in production in a couple of years.

  293. James Canning says:

    Avg American,

    Thanks for commenting on Patty Murray’s signing of that appallingly foolish lettter. (Foolish in terms of realistic US foreign policy.) Being seen as an Aipac stooge is the way to an easier time in the US Congress, apparently. Sadly. I agree she had an obligation to know just how stupid the policy recommendation in that letter was.

  294. James Canning says:

    Sineva,

    Yes, Hitler’s mad drive for total power in Europe was sadly fostered, by the deal at Munich in Sept 1938. If Hitler had been sincere, the adjustment of the Czech border would have been a reasonable price to pay for peace in Europe. Lord Louis Mountbatten, for example, feared Hitler was a madman, and this proved correct.

  295. James Canning says:

    Sineva,

    Wealth has a great deal to do with power. For example, Syria’s gov’t was running low on cash, and this crisis helped to bring about the vicious civil war. Iran was short of cash and unable to provide the support Syria needed.

    Iran’s economy is smallerby at least $1 trillion, due to the nuclear programme. This hurts.

  296. James Canning says:

    Sineva,

    Britain and France do not want war with Iran. Nor does Germany. Nor does Obama. Aipac apparently does want US war with Iran. So does Netanyahu. I think Iran easily can avoid war, simply by not trying to get too close to ability to build nukes quickly.

  297. nico says:

    Top economic advisers warn that economic factors could lead to a new world war.

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/forecast-war-economic-depression-and-social-unrest/5354871

  298. nico says:

    China’s Largest Conglomerate Buys Building Housing JPMorgan’s Gold Vault

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-18/chinas-largest-conglomerate-buys-building-houses-jpmorgans-gold-vault

    “None of this is particularly newsworthy What is, however, is what Zero Hedge exclusively reported back in March, namely that the very same former JPM HQ at 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza is also the building that houses the firm’s commercial gold vault: incidentally, the largest in the world.”

    “That’s right, ladies and gentlemen, as a result of our cursory examination, we have learned that the world’s largest private, and commercial, gold vault, that belonging once upon a time to Chase Manhattan, and now to JPMorgan Chase, is located, right across the street, and at the same level underground, resting just on top of the Manhattan bedrock, as the vault belonging to the New York Federal Reserve, which according to folklore is the official location of the biggest collection of sovereign, public gold in the world.
    At this point we would hate to be self-referential, and point out what one of our own commentators noted on the topic of the Fed’s vault a year ago, namely that:

    “Chase Plaza (now the Property of JPM) is linked to the facility via tunnel… I have seen it.  The elevators on the Chase side are incredible. They could lift a tank…”

    but we won’t, and instead we will let readers make up their own mind why the the thousands of tons of sovereign gold in the possession of the New York Fed, have to be literally inches across, if not directly connected, to the largest private gold vault in the world.”

  299. James Canning says:

    Jim Lobe, on issue of whether Obama can control powerful Democrats in US Congress who are ardent “supporters” of Israel, so that negotiations with Iran are not wrecked:

    http://www.lobelog.com/iran-hawks-down-but-not-out-after-geneva/#more-21530

  300. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    According to the Financial Times last week, China bought a further $100 billion of US Gov’t debt (USD) this past year.

    You think China should switch to Euro debt, from EU countries?

  301. Karl.. says:

    James

    War could easily be avoided if the states that threat, penalize, support terror against Iran stop doing it. Such a country is the UK.

    Do you claim that women that wear short skirt have themselves to blame if they are getting raped?

  302. Smith says:

    Some realities: http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=13920728001410

    Note that the situation will inevitably go towards the same point where Shariatmadari was shouting for Iran to pull out of NPT. It is now only a matter of time since there is snow ball’s chance in hell for people in group 3 like Leveretts becoming policy makers in US.

  303. Smith says:

    More on import mafias and their squandering of the wealth of the nation instead of funding R&D for manufacturing pistons and ECU so that Iran would not need to beg US, Germany and China for their import: http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/352178/%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B4%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AC%D8%B2%D8%A6%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%E2%80%8C%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%B1%D9%88

  304. nico says:

    James Canning says:
    October 20, 2013 at 2:56 pm

    Ineeed, did I suggest something ?

  305. Karl.. says:

    UK, US, France, Germany goes to Israel.

    http://presstv.com/detail/2013/10/20/330429/us-britain-brief-israel-on-iran-talks/

    West really want the talks ruined..

  306. James Canning says:

    Karl,

    EU 3 and thee US do NOT “want the talks [with Iran] ruined.” You might surmise some political leaders in these countries would like to see less pressure from Israel.

  307. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    Britain does not support terror attacks against Iran.

    You think Iran’s getting closer to ability to build nukes quickly is the equivalent of a woman wearing a short skirt?

  308. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    You didn’t try to suggest China wanted to lower the value of the US dollar?

  309. James Canning says:

    Smith,

    The Leveretts appear to be making progress in their effort to bring more common sense to US policy toward Iran.

  310. Karl.. says:

    James

    Yes apparently you deny women (to wear a skirt) and Iran’s right to have a nuclear program. Are you afraid to state your own views?

  311. Kathleen says:

    Applying pressure on Israel and the racist and discriminatory group Jewish National Fund who are having a conference in Denver Colorado this coming weekend by having a counter conference and protest. We will be protesting Colorado Governors’s luncheon that he is hosting for some of the JNF attendee’s. We are asking Governor Hickenlooper why he would as the top official of Colorado support such a racist group?

    Come join our protest and come hear Rabbi Weiss who will be speaking at a Mosque on Thursday evening about how the Jewish State is in total contradiction to Jewish religious beliefs. How there is no separation between synagogue and state in the so called democratic state of Israel.

    Please share with others
    Rabbi Weiss will speak at Denver Mosque

    Thursday, October 24th​​
    6pm​
    Schedule of events
    http://www.coloradobdscampaign.org/

  312. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    You appear to overlook the fact I strongly support Iran’s civilian nuclear power programme, including control of fuel cycle of power plants.

    In my opinion, if Iran tries to gain ability to build nukes quickly, and refuses to make a deal, Iran may end up with no nuclear programme.

  313. Karl.. says:

    James

    No you dont respect their rights besides Iran already have the knowledge to build nukes “quickly” if they want.

  314. Sineva says:

    James Canning says:
    October 20, 2013 at 2:07 pm
    Wealth may have a lot to do with power but it does not necessarily translate to military power,iran may have been wealthier but that does not mean it would have been militarily stronger
    “Iran’s economy is smaller by at least $1 trillion, due to the nuclear programme. This hurts.”
    No one has ever said that standing up for ones rights would be cheap or easy,but the hurt has not just been confined to iran,I`d love to know just how much the sanctions have cost the eu nations or the cost of the concessions the west had to make to russia and china for them to go along with un sanctions

  315. fyi says:

    Sineva says:

    October 21, 2013 at 7:08 am

    Yes, all of those costs by Axis Powers must be included; a war has been joined but at the moment the costs of that war to EU Baronetcies – as well as such satrapies and Japan and Korea – is hidden.

    I think the idea was that Iranians – after the financial “nuclear bomb attack” on their central bank – were going to fold quickly and thus those losses could be recovered quickly – at Iran’s expense.

    In 2012, the Axis Powers realized that the road through negogiations – if they chose to do so – would be long and hard.

    That and the fact that their indentical calculation in Syria had also failed made them switch to actual war; first against Syria and after the destruction the Ba’ath state in Syria against Iran.

    The revolt of the peasants in UK, followed by the unease at the Court of the KIng among certain courtiers, stopped the war train – at least for now.

    Now I surmise that they are seeking a cease-fire in Syria as well on the nuclear-front until they can regroup and resume their agenda for egime change in Syria and in Iran – 5 or 10 years from now.

    I think Iran should align herself with China; the only great power that could live with an strategically independent Iran.

  316. BiBiJon says:

    Sineva says:
    October 21, 2013 at 7:08 am

    Even if fyi despite his faulty analysis, is correct with his conclusion, “5 or 10 years” of peace , then there’s 5 to 10 years to cement in that peace to be a permanent condition, just as there is 5 to 10 years to prepare for war.

    fyi’s depiction of the US and the countries in her orbit as king, barons, satraps and their respective peasant populations obscures the many moving parts of self-interests, varying degrees of hard/soft power to attain those interests, confluence of domestic/foreign policies, etc. Any of these constitute an avenue for effecting direction of future realities.

    The only country I know who has boxed herself into a security dilemma where nothing but absolute regional supremacy/hegemony will give her peace of mind is the state of Israel.

    US is not in that straightjacket. She can choose on a dime (as Kooshy would say) to turn on/off antagonism and friendship towards any country.

  317. fyi says:

    All:

    A Norwegian’s take on attacking Iran:

    http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/understanding-irans-nuclear-breakout-options-9267

    [I ask myself, why is Iran a threat to Norway?]

  318. nico says:

    James Canning says:
    October 20, 2013 at 5:13 pmN

    “Nico,You didn’t try to suggest China wanted to lower the value of the US dollar?”

    Did I ? Or experts, China itself (with swap deals) and other commentators did ?

  319. Karl.. says:

    fyi

    Here is what one need to know..

    “He is a post-graduate of the MA program in Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.”

  320. fyi says:

    Karl.. says:

    October 21, 2013 at 11:52 am

    Thanks.

    Another young European who is “Lost” like Henzel and Gretel – with neither Tao nor God to giver him either Balance or Direction.

    Likely his guidence, such as it is, comes from that new idol – the semi-religion of Shoah; being completely oblivious to how preposterous what he writes really is.

  321. James Canning says:

    In a leader today, the Financial Times again calls for the P5+1 to accept Iranian enrichment to low levels, to facilitate a deal.

    The FT on Saturday reported Saudi Arabia’s objections to the UNSC’s failure to end the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and to pressure Israel to get rid of its nukes. Wall Street Journal and New York Times omitted these two elements of the story (rejection of seat on UNSC).

  322. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    China would be wise to seek alternate places to put its huge reserves, but China tries to keep the US dollar relatively high. To facilitate its own exports to the US.

  323. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    The piece you linked was an analysis of how to make sure Iran is not able to build nukes quickly, as part of a deal to resolve the nuclear dispute. (Norwegian analyst)

  324. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    I support a negotiated resolution of the nuclear dispute. This necessarily means Iran would give up any ability to build nukes quickly.

  325. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    China wants to make sure Iran is not able to build nukes quickly. Ditto Russia.

  326. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    I will say this again: William Hague and David Cameron wanted to improve Britain’s relations with Syria, and Iran, when they came into office several years ago. They were not seeking “regime change” in Syria.

  327. James Canning says:

    Sineva,

    My point specifically was that Syria’s cash crisis was not alleviated by Iran, because Iran itself was short of cash. Ergo, civil war in Syria was partly the result of Iran’s nuclear dispute with P5+1.

    Yes, higher oil prices hurt consumers in many countries. Nuclear dispute means higher oil prices.

  328. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 21, 2013 at 1:50 pm

    The piece by the misguided Norwegian was a journalistic discussion of war against a sovereign state as well as a central and historical pillar of a major world civilization as well as religion.

    Per my comment earlier; Iran, in terms of absolute enrichment capacity, is already nuclear-capable; that horse already has left the barn.

    My recommendation to you is to internalize the current irreversible Iran-as-a-threshold-nuclear-weapons-state.

    What P5+1 desire is not achievable unless they are prepared to invade Iran and occupy her for 40 years.

    Le jeux sont fait.

  329. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 21, 2013 at 1:53 pm

    Did any of the Barons forcefully or otherwise confront the King as to his mad policies?

    No.

    They agreed with those policies and thus were willing ” to ride bicycles” in Spain to harm Iran and her allies.

    Do not kid yourself, it was the peasants in England – rich or poor, educated or un-educated – who dashed the war plans of the King and the Barons against Syria first and Iran second.

    I state with empirical certainty that war against Syria would have been followed – perhaps after a hiatus – with war against Iran.

  330. James Canning says:

    A letter to the editor appearing in the Financial Times today makes a good case for concluding that perhaps $1 trillion in the debt of the US Government can be attributed to the cost of protecting oil exports from the Persian Gulf. China is the largest importer of oil from the PG. In other words, the US is squandering huge sums.

  331. nico says:

    James Canning says:
    October 21, 2013 at 1:34 pm
    “Nico,China would be wise to seek alternate places to put its huge reserves, but China tries to keep the US dollar relatively high. To facilitate its own exports to the US.”

    Thank you for that trivial statement.

  332. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    A Russian analyst in The New York Times recently observed that Obama appeared to have a gun pointed at his head, when he argued in favor of a US atttack on Syria. Obama did not want to attack Syria. And bravo, British Parliament. And bravo Obama, for accepting advice from Vladimire Putin.

    Aipac wanted the US to attack Syria. Still does.
    Aipac wants US to attack Iran.

  333. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    Trivial? A number of posters on this site claim China wants to undermine the American economy, US dollar, etc etc etc etc. Rubbish.

  334. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    I agree a US war with Syria was intended to set up a US war with Iran. This is Aipac’s programme. Why? So Israel can continue to scr*w the Palestinians.

  335. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 21, 2013 at 2:06 pm

    hyperbole….

    I suppose the late Sir Winston had a gun pointed to his head when he ordered the attack on Norway?

  336. fyi says:

    All:

    I would like to note this momentous point on this forum:

    James Canning says:

    October 21, 2013 at 2:09 pm

    fyi,

    I agree a US war with Syria was intended to set up a US war with Iran. This is Aipac’s programme. Why? So Israel can continue to scr*w the Palestinians.

    That is, US remains committed to the destruction of the Islamic Republic of Iran – through actual war if she has to.

    Iran (and Syria) got lucky this time because of the anger of the English people.

    It is extremely imprudent, I should think, for the Iranian planners to count on being saved by the English people or anyone else.

    US war against Iran must now be assumed to be a matter of time; if not under Mr. Obama under his successor.

  337. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Let’s not forget that a major reason Saudi Arabia, UAE and other Gulf countries have sought to overthrow the Syrian government is Iran’s disputed nuclear programme. Iran in this way helped to bring on civil war in Syria.

  338. Karl.. says:

    James

    Let’s not forget that a major reason Iran have supported the Syrian government is because the takfir terrorists funded by the gulf regimes (and also the UK) all over the middle east. Saudiarabia in this way not only helped to bring on civil war in Syria but in principle started it.

  339. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 21, 2013 at 2:13 pm

    The oil-wells-with-flags that you have mentioned above will always fee threatened by Iran.

    If Iran were not there, they would next feel threatened by Iraq.

    And if Iraq were not there, the smaller ones would feel threatened by Saudi Arabia and so on.

    There is nothing Iran can do to alter those facts of her existence to assuage assuage such fears.

    None.

    At the time of the Shah, there were many young men who would illegally enter Kuwait from Iran – sometime jumping from motor-boat outside of Kuwait’s territorial waters and swimming the rest of the way.

    Some drowned, some were killed by sharks, and some made it inland.

    Those who survived, would often work for other Iranian business men.

    They young men were tough.

    The rumor in Kuwait, at that time, was that those men are members of the Shah’s secret army, waiting for their orders from Tehran to someday don the Iranian military uniforms and take over Kuwait.

    So, this is an old canard that the cunning Arab is using to manipulate the simpleton Anglo-Americans – just like the Jews in Israel – to do their bidding.

    There is a big ditch between Iran and the Southern Persian Gulf.

    Iranians cannot easily launch any invasion south.

    Now; pay attention here.

    Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Finland cannot be secured, at any price, against the Russian Federation.

    Yet, they are not conspiring to cause problems for Russia in Kaliningrad, in Chechnya, or in Belarus.

    That is because retaliation against them, in such a case, would be swift and ruthless.

    They know that and they do nothing of the sort.

    It is Iranian weaknesses, in multiple areas of national power, that emboldens the midgets to cause all these problems.

    Arabs lost the Al Haram al Sharif to Israel on the field of battle and thus, single-handedly, transformed an ethno-linguistic conflict over land into a religious war.

    If I were you, I would put very little stock in Arabs and Arab leaders – their record has been an unmitigated disaster since 1956.

  340. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Yes, a richer and more powerful Iran would pose problems for some Gulf countries, but this siutation would not have prompted them to seek the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, were in not for Iran’s nuclear programme.

    You are uncomfortable with the FACT, that civil war in Syria is virtually a direct outgrowth of Iran’s effort to get close to ability to build nukes quickly.

  341. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    Russia generally tries to have good relations with the EU. Including EU countries that formerly were part of the Russian Empire.

  342. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 21, 2013 at 2:34 pm

    The fact is that Anglo-Americans have been manipulated by the cunning Arab “I have the Black guy doing my bidding in Syria” says the Arab.

    “I have the gentiles doing my bidding against Iran.”, says the Israeli.

    That is all.

  343. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    I agree with you that civil war in Syria was made possible by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Dreadful situation in my view. But Iran fomented the trouble by its ill-advised effort to gain ability to build nukes quickly. Huge blunder.

  344. nico says:

    James Canning says:
    October 21, 2013 at 2:07 pm
    “Nico,Trivial? A number of posters on this site claim China wants to undermine the American economy, US dollar, etc etc etc etc. Rubbish.”

    Could you enlighten me on who said that ? I saw nothing close to that here. That is surely coming out of your imagination.

  345. Karl.. says:

    James

    Saudiarabia blundered by arming funding anti-shia groups all over the middle east and Iran have approached saudi accordingly.

  346. fyi says:

    Karl.. says:

    October 21, 2013 at 2:50 pm

    It is actually much worse than you wrote.

    Saudi Arabia’s long-term programme is destruction or domination of any and all non-Wahabi/non-Hanbali Muslims – including the Shia, the Druze, the Alawi, and the Ahmadis.

    In their new dispensation, if ever successful, thousands will be killed or forced into fleeing Islamic Lands controlled by them.

    They found a receptive ears in the Court of the Mad King and his barons for that program.

  347. Karl.. says:

    fyi

    Correct I just, simply, reversing James ignorant comments.

  348. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    I do not support Saudi funding of Sunni terrorists. Obviously. And I regret the civil war in Syria, and Saudi backing for the rebels. Chaos in Iraq is also not welcome, in my view.

  349. Rehmat says:

    On Monday, Brig-General Farzad Esmayeeli, Commander of Iran’s Khatam ol-Anbia Air Defense Base, presented an Iranian-made model of American ScanEagle, to Lt. General Viktor Bondarev, Russian Air Force Commander.

    The Iranian version of ScanEagle is based on the low-cost, long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle built by Insitu, a subsidiary of Boeing for the Pentagon. One of these drones was captured by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. (IRGC) in December 2012. Watch a video below.

    http://rehmat1.com/2013/10/22/russia-gets-iranian-made-scaneagle-drone/

  350. Bussed-in Basiji says:

    Ol’ Dirty Bandar doing what he does best…squeezing America’s balls.

    From WSJ:

    Spy Chief Distances Saudis From U.S.
    Prince Bandar’s Move Raises Tensions Over Policies in Syria, Iran and Egypt

    Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief told European diplomats that he plans to scale back cooperating with the U.S. to arm and train Syrian rebels in protest of Washington’s policy in the region.

    http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-360028/

  351. Karl.. says:

    Bussed in Basiji

    Great, the more distanced US gets to Saudi and Israel the greater chance of an actual deal with IRan.
    Bandar apprently bite the hand that feeds his regime.

  352. fyi says:

    Karl.. says:

    October 22, 2013 at 9:22 am

    That is just a tantrum; the first wife cannot stand the concubine sort of situation.

    Consider: Saudis do not trust other Arabs, they do not trust Iranians, and certainly not Pakistanis either.

    They only have Americans to protect them and they know it.

    1300 years ago, Abassid Caliph – who also neither trusted the Arabs nor Persians (Iranians) – brought the Turkic military slaves to shore up the Caliphate. In time, the Turkic generals became the dominant force in the Caliphate and the Caliph a figure-head.

    I expect nothing less here.

  353. Bussed-in Basiji says:

    The US needs Saudi more than Saudi needs US.

    US is “protecting” Saudi against what?

    “Iranian attack”? Nope.

    “Internal opposition”? No significant one exists.

    “Al-Qaeda”? The average Saudi does not want them to take over and would resist.

    “Saudi military”? Maybe in the past but SANG has that covered.

    With dollar hegemony dependent on Saudi oil sales denominated dollars, the US has effectively handed its balls to Ale Saud.

    Ol’ Dirty Bandar knows this…and is firmly squeezing.

  354. James Canning says:

    Bussed-In Basiji,

    Quoting an oil price in US dollars does not mean payemnt for oil must be in USD. Why would quoting oil price in euros “hurt” the USD?

  355. James Canning says:

    Wall Street Journal today has a good report on the likely proposal Iran will make to P5+1 next month.

  356. James Canning says:

    Karll..,

    “Ignorant” about what? You claim in effect that Iran has been hostile toward Saudi Arabia due to Saudi “anti-Shia” programme. You implicitly discount to zero Saudi fears regarding Iran’s nuclear programme. And of course you are dead wrong on that score.

  357. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 22, 2013 at 1:47 pm

    Karl is correct; you do not comprehend the hatred for Shia among certain ruling circles in Saudi Arabia as well as their affiliated tribes.

    That is why no fundamental rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia is possible.

    In fact, fundamental rapprochement between US and Iran – along the lines that I have stated twice already – is more likely than one between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

  358. James Canning says:

    At LobeLog, Robert E. Hunter has interesting thoughts on what a P5+1 deal with Iran could mean:

    http://www.lobelog.com/the-end-of-the-beginning/#more-21553

    Financial Times today carried interesting report on what will likely be required to bring Iranian oil production back to former production levels.

  359. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    I think I have a pretty good feel for the “anti-Shia” element in Saudi opinion, on part of Saudi leaders.

    You obviously prefer to discount severely the significance of Iran’s nuclear programme, in the deterioration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

  360. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 22, 2013 at 2:08 pm

    Put a percentage on it.

  361. Bussed-in Basiji says:

    Buying oil in other than US dollars takes away US’ relative advantage because then the US has to- like other oil importers- work to earn cash to pay for basic energy costs- as opposed to currently where it just “prints” money to pay for it’s fuel putting it at an “unfair” advantage over others who can’t just print money to pay for fuel.

    Also when everybody else is “forced” to buy dollars in order to buy oil then demand for dollars will always remain high even if other factors would otherwise reduce demand for dollars.

    Of course this is not “absolute”, but “relatively” advantageous enough to keep US afloat in an otherwise dismal economic situation.

    If Saudi stopped denominating its oil sales in dollars and/or stopped buying US debt instruments secretly (not on the open market)/buying billions worth of US weapons/investing in US capital markets- the US economy would collapse.

    US balls firmly in Ol’ Dirty Bandar’s hands…and he’s squeezing.

    Again, US is protecting Saudi against what?

    Like Amb. Chas Freeman said about US policy in Saudi:

    “Access, Transit and Strategic Denial”, in other words “this huge oil dump in the Arabian desert is the real physical backing for US economy without which the US dollar would eventually crash with all the consequences that that has.”

  362. James Canning says:

    Bussed-In Basiji,

    China holds about $1.25 trillion in US Gov’t debt, according to a report in the Financial Times last week. And this huge holding increased by 10% this past year.

    US taxpwyers provide security, in effect, for China’s huge volume of oil buying in the Perisan Gulf.

    I see no reason the dollar would suffer from pricing oil in Euros (or some other currency) rather than USD.

  363. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    I woukld venture that at least half the fear element in Saudi ruling circles, regarding Iran, stems from Iran’s nuclear programme.

  364. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 22, 2013 at 2:45 pm

    So 50% is about Iran and the other about Shia?

    Consider:

    Until invasion of Kuwait in 1991, Saudis had no concern about nuclear development in Iraq.

    And they are buddies with Pakistan – with her nuclear weapons.

    In light of this, I would say, 10%.

    the other 90% because Iran is a Shia country with pedigree.

  365. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    You overlook the intense reaction in Saudi Arabia to the announcement by Iran of intent to treble production of 20% U several years ago.

    The Saudis surely had good reason to believe war might well come to the Gulf, due to Iran’s stepping-up of its effort to get closer to ability to build nukes quickly.

  366. nico says:

    “KSA plans major shift in US dealings”

    http://edition.presstv.ir/iphone/detail.aspx?id=330788

    The US beginning to fell the note for decades of idiotic policies in the ME.
    This being the collateral result of the US major policy failure in Irak and Afghanistan.
    The US position is that weakened now that the even the KSA dare to defy them…
    I said months if not years ago that the US will pay the price of their failure and that the US are losing ground in the ME.

    Some people still think the US demise is decades away in the future.
    Whereas it is much much closer if current US policies economic and foreign policies are maintained.
    My own assumption is less than 5 to 10 years left for the US as a global imperial power.

    However what KSA would be able to do alone and without the US alliance in the case of palestine or the shia crescent ?
    Not much indeed.

    What would be KSA position when the current demonization of Iran turn east toward KSA ?
    Would the KSA regime be as resilient as the Iranian one ?
    No chance.

    Would it not be easy for the Anglo with their intelligence services to foment a putsch in KSA by having an alliance and supporting a branch of the saud family ?

    KSA did not win its independence through war and decades of struggle yet.
    They are arrogant and think they are not slave whereas in effect they still are.

    Another question that arises is whether the KSA are not supporting the USD anymore or whether it is the other way arround with KSA knowing that the USD is already agonizing then it feels the need to diversify its currency reserves as well as its alliances ?

  367. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 22, 2013 at 3:16 pm

    You are entitled to your opinion.

    We will need to defer this case to the future historians….

  368. nico says:

    Bussed-in Basiji says:
    October 22, 2013 at 1:10 pm

    “US is “protecting” Saudi against what?”

    Mmmmh …
    Do you know how mafia works ? You know, when they ask money for protection ?
    Ask Canning, as an expert of realpolitik and Anglo supremacism, he surely is expert in such matter.

  369. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    Surely the US is “stronger” for not having attacked Syria (assuming this would have led to intervention in the civil war on a much-larger scale. So, the US is stronger for not doing something certain Saudi leaders very much sought.

  370. Karl.. says:

    James

    Are you naive?

    If saudiarabia and israel fear the nuclear program of iran as you claim, why then are both these regimes against US talks with Iran?

    Apparently you dont know that radical salafist saudiarabia is against Iran pretty much because of their mere (shia)being.

  371. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    You imply that huge arms purchaes help Saudi Arabia gain influence in the US and other countries. Few would doubt this.

  372. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    Saudi leaders saw danger of war in the Gulf, arising from Iranian nuclear dispute. Good reason for those fears, obviously.

    Israel wants to continue to grow the illegal colonies in the West Bank, and the nuclear dispute with Iran helps distract attention from this progamme.

    Some Saudis worry about subversion from Iran, involving Shia communities in Bahrain and KSA.

  373. nico says:

    Karl.. says:
    October 22, 2013 at 9:22 am

    “Bandar apprently bite the hand that feeds his regime.”

    Well said.
    That is surely a wrong and arrogant move from the KSA regime.
    It can precipitate a de facto Iran-US detente with the US feeling the need to rebalance their idiotic ME policies.
    Or it can precipitate a US sponsored putsch in a foggy succession in KSA.
    Of course, no comparison with other historical events in the region intended… As you know tge Mossadegh was only to save the world againdt communists… ask Canning he will tell you history.

  374. nico says:

    James Canning says:
    October 22, 2013 at 3:47 pm
    “Nico,You imply that huge arms purchaes help Saudi Arabia gain influence in the US and other countries. Few would doubt this.”

    You mean the weapons with US commanded deactivation code ?
    Like the Malvina war exocet ?
    Evidently you have difficulty to grasp my posts.
    I surely need a translation device.

  375. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    I confess I find it hard to ascertain if you think the Saudis are extorting the Americans, or that the US is doing that to the Saudis. Both?

  376. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    I think Eisenhower backed the coup against Mossadegh because he actually believed Mossadegh was too friendly toward the USSR. Others think Eisenhower only pretended to believe Mossadegh was too friendly toward the Soviet Union. Your view?

    Obviously, access to Iranian oil was a significant factor. Please foces on the above, however.

  377. Karl.. says:

    James

    October 22, 2013 at 3:50 pm

    Non sequitur as usual.

    As soon as you understand why Israel/Saudiarabia dont support talks, you will understand whats going on.

  378. Karl.. says:

    nico

    About KSA, I think its just KSA having its tantrum (as fyi said).

  379. nico says:

    James Canning says:
    October 22, 2013 at 4:22 pm

    “Nico,

    I confess I find it hard to ascertain if you think the Saudis are extorting the Americans, or that the US is doing that to the Saudis. Both?”

    Do I need to lecture you on which country is the Empire ans which is the vassal? Which country is strategically independent and the other not ?
    Which country has military bases on the other soil ?

    Obviously the sheikdoms are spending much money in western weapons. What are the US and other western military doing in the PG to begin with ?

    KSA is arrogant in thinking one second they are not slave.
    That is, sweet slavery, but slavery nonetheless.
    The US pretend to be KSA friend and support them. And KSA pretend to believe it or maybe believe it for real – they are stupid enough for that… But for all important matter the US act their own way.

    Saudi are stupid losers.
    They accepted their golden plated geopolitical servitude for a century.
    And now one nice and beautiful morning they wake up and want to stand up like giants when they are political dwarves.

    The Saudi temporary rebellion is only due to the US current weakness and hegemonic failure in the region.
    To be spit at by such losers tells MUCH about the US losing ground in the region.

    Well, at least, KSA mood provides hint at the reality of the detente process between Iran and the US. Even if there is obviously no guarantee of success yet.

  380. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    Who has the financial power? Gulf Arabs, to a very large extent. Their financial power actually has grown considerably, thanks to the nuclear disputee with Iran.

  381. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    Silly claim on your part, that I “do not understand” why Israel is trying to prevent an improvement in US relations with Iran.

  382. nico says:

    James Canning says:
    October 22, 2013 at 5:49 pm

    “Nico,

    Who has the financial power? Gulf Arabs, to a very large extent. Their financial power actually has grown considerably, thanks to the nuclear disputee with Iran.”

    Do you mean the billions in US T Bond and western bank vaults or the few digit in western bank computers ? Or maybe the asset they bought in western country lile luxury estates ?

    What are the sheikdoms good at other than sitting at the top of a oil wells lost in the middle of deserts ?

  383. nico says:

    China, France sign deal to construct nuclear power reactors in UK

    http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/10/22/330785/deal/

    interesting comment on the page…

    “Anthony Forster
    Oct 22, 2013 7:7 PM
    In near future they will beg on Iranians to build their nuclear power reactors.”

  384. kooshy says:

    Bussed-in Basiji says:
    October 22, 2013 at 2:27 pm

    You got that right brother; this empire of ours is built and raised on supreme financial hegemony (an uncontested economic supremacy when it can raise liquidity at no cost to her not even the cost for the paper and ink).
    The backup for the paper money was agreed to be gold, but when that ran out it became to be the black kind, which happens to someone else’s oil in somewhere totally else. The structure of all that financial stability was based on a bench with four legs,
    one of the two financial/economic bench stabilizer legs was Iran which is long gone. Therefore for some time no longer a bench, is been a while we only have an e legged stool. The main and the biggest of the three remaining legs, the only one keeping up the empire and the other two legs, is Saudi Arabia, she in her traditional setup format is old, deformed, unstable and is lingering, one of the other two legs who have the task of keeping the Saudis stable by making everyone else confused, disable, dissipated, deceived and unstable, is in chaos, that’s Egypt, and the forth one is so apartheid and illogical that has effectively made herself and her few western supports completely isolated, in a way that no longer any insulation can protect her and her supports from negative global public opinion. So you see my friend, our little empire here in Wishfulestan is based on a paper money that her only backup is when people continue to buy their energy needs with this paper which we can print as much as we wish with no end in sight, to keep up the demand for our green paper we need to protect a medieval dictatorship that now effectively is run by the Bandar Bush the prince of Al Qaeda.

    But people like Smithy warm up act and fyi the main course, because of the empire shouldn’t become depressed and unstable, I would think still there is a few years left, to have open white man street orgies in Haifa , but even if by any mistake Haifa is leveled, not to worry, with new law in effect one can always catch a cross sex orgies in streets of New Jersey (Joerzey).

    Cheers

  385. Rehmat says:

    Chris Zambelis wrote at Asia Times: “As Africa’s stock rises, Iran is poised to continue to spread its influence across the continent. Despite its impressive gains to date, Iran cannot match the inroads made by other major players angling for influence in Africa, namely the United States and China. Iran can nevertheless strengthen its hand in its confrontation with its foes by interjecting itself into African affairs. Tehran’s new interest in Africa, however, is not fleeting. It follows that Iran has much to gain by engaging Africa down the road.”

    http://rehmat1.com/2013/10/23/us-gambia-needs-a-regime-change/

  386. Fiorangela says:

    Sammy says: October 14, 2013 at 4:28 pm

    1. The US Federal Reserve bank is the world’s central bank, and the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency.

    2. Federal reserve IOUs (aka dollars) are collateralized by the labor of US taxpayers.

    3. Unemployment is a mounting problem in the US.

    4. The health care industry has supplanted industry/manufacturing as the predominant employment source in US.

    5. If you liked the housing bubble, you will love Obamacare, the coming insurance bubble.

    6. The health insurance bubble is absolutely essential to maintain the collateral behind the US dollar. Thus, Obama HAD to take the position that changing or delaying Obamacare was non-negotiable.

    7. The other threat to the dominance of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency is Iran and its soft power capacity to persuade enough of the world to remove itself from the dollar.

    8. Iran also has collateral to back up its bid for sovereignty and independence from the dollar: natural resource/oil.

    9. Iran’s nuclear program has symbolic value: it signifies Iran’s ability and determination to rest on international law and rights to defend its sovereignty. For Rouhani and Iran, the right to enrich uranium and pursue nuclear projects is non-negotiable. (see #6 above).

    10. There exists a circle-inside-the-circle: while US gov. was shut down, US Treasury department “guerillas in grey suits” whose work it is to destroy Iran’s economy, were not at work. (Presumably, they have returned to their tasks. One would like to be a fly on the wall as these bandits attempt to coerce international bankers to refrain from doing business with Iran.)

    According to Juan Zarate, former charter member of the “guerillas in grey suits,” the ability of the US to financially destroy Iran in a bid to (ahem) bring it into compliance with its nuclear obligations, is entirely dependent on the strength of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

  387. Fiorangela says:

    11. Recall that F and H Leverett explain that “soft power is the ability to get others to want what you want.” Iran has the ability to influence enough of the rest of the world to want what they want — or at least, to resist US hegemony and dollar dominance — witness China: surely not entirely influenced by Iran to think about trading in renminbi, but once one uppity country demonstrates the ability to resist the Empire, others may tend to follow, particularly when the Empire demonstrates a weakness. Iran’s nuclear file is its symbolic demonstration of resistance to US dominance.

  388. Sammy says:

    Fiorangela says:
    October 22, 2013 at 9:26 pm

    Dear Fiorangela , very nice and accurate sum up of the situation , thanks.

  389. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    That proposed new nuclear power plant will charge double the market cost for electricity that obtains in Britain, which some observers think is not a good thing.

  390. James Canning says:

    “Lebanon is divided between an enfeebled [Saad] Hariri-led Sunni coalition backed by Saudi Arabia, and a Hizbollah-led Shia bloc backed by Iran and allied to Syria, with Christian factions led by superannuated warlords split between them.”
    David Gardner, in the Financial Times today

  391. James Canning says:

    Nico,

    You apparently do not follow the enormous business deals of one sort or another, all over the planet, funded by very rich Gulf Arabs. Their fantastic oil wealth provides them with significant power and influence in many countries.

  392. James Canning says:

    “Iran appears to be moving towards an enhanced international role and relevance.”
    – - Philip Giraldi, in the American Conservative Oct 22

  393. James Canning says:

    Pertinent comments by Ali Reza Eshraghi, on current political situation in Iran and its relationship to nuclear negotiations:

    http://www.lobelog.com/irans-hardliners-weaker-but-louder/#more-21568

  394. James Canning says:

    Fiorangela,

    China tends to do what it can to keep the US dollar relatively strong.

    Euro increasingly is used for government debt insturments, and it is taking a larger share of global debt issuance by governments. Still trails USD.

    Martin Wolf at the Financial Times tracks this issue very well. He has a good piece today in the FT.

  395. fyi says:

    Fiorangela says:

    October 22, 2013 at 9:32 pm

    No I think you are correct; the nuclear financial war against Iran was a shot across the bow of China as well as Russia.

    UK revoked maritime insurance from this Russian ship that was carrying something for the Syrian Government to prevent Russia from helping Mr. Assad’s Government.

    The Russians turned around and insured that vessel themselves.

    I suspect there is a now work going on all over the world to setup maritime insurance companies to reduce or eliminate reliance on UK or EU insurers.

    [Given the dismal prospects of the capital markets, it is unclear how re-insurance markets could work in the Axis Powers countries either.]

    Chinese can unload more dollars this way – by making their currency convertible.

  396. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    I very much doubt that China views economic sanctions against Iran as a “shot across the bow” for China itself. To some extent, China has gained from the sanctions against Iran. In the same way, China gained from the sanctions that formerly were in place against Burma.

  397. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    You appear not to be able to explain why China would increase its holding of US Gov’t debt this past year, by more than $100 billion. (If China in fact wants to weaken the USAD.)

  398. James Canning says:

    “Saudi Arabia is understood to be upset at perceived US weakness over Iran – - and wants more aggressive steps taken to prevent Tehran’s nuclear weapons technology. . . ”
    – - Guardian report today

  399. fyi says:

    James Canning says:

    October 23, 2013 at 1:57 pm

    This is another Long March for China.

    As for the increase in their T-Bill holdings; they have not much choice; they have to get the dollars out of circulation else Yuan will appreciate against other East Asian currencies.

    Chinese intention is not the weakening of the US dollar; it is reduction of their reliance on it as a reserve currency.

    They are spending their dollars to buy assets all over the world since they know the paper they held is going to depreciate anyway.

    China is not a stake-holder in the Anglo-American system, she is riding it until she can detach herself from it.

  400. James Canning says:

    fyi,

    I agree China will try to diversify its debt holdings. “Detach herself” from the global economy, I very much doubt it. Putting too much money into Euro instruments poses risks also.

  401. Smith says:

    England has started to steal Iran’s share in North Sea gas field from today. The Iranian money will be given to British banks so that they can balance their bad accounts. Just like billions of dollars of Iranian money in British banks “frozen” in order to keep those banks floating and avoiding bankruptcy: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/22/britain-iran-rhum-idUSL5N0IC31G20131022

  402. thecelticwithinme says:

    Here is what Kerry had to say yesterday about Syria:

    “The path of war will lead to the implosion of the state of Syria.
    It will lead to the rise of extremist groups and extremism itself,
    it will lead to more refugees spilling over the borders and putting strains on surrounding countries,
    and it will further destabilize the region,
    and lead ultimately to the disintegration of the Syrian state.”

    “We cannot stop there.
    Removing CW does not remove the crisis.
    It doesn’t remove the humanitarian catastrophe that is unfolding before the world’s eyes,
    it doesn’t change the situation for people who are under fire from Assad’s artillery or his bombs, his airplanes, his scuds.
    Assad continues to deploy ballistic missiles and other conventional weapons
    and is using his air force to rain down terror on the people of his country.”

    “Innocent men, women, and children are starving, while the Assad regime continues to block humanitarian access.”

    “The killing,
    the destabilization of an entire region,
    the displacement of millions of people inside of Syria
    the creating of refugees outside of Syria,
    and the potential for a beautiful and ancient country to be fully destroyed by sectarian and extremist violence is what is at stake here.”

    If one were to substitute Iraq for Syria couldn’t the exact same thing be said of what the U.S. did to that country 10 years ago?
    Weren’t there hundreds of thousands of people killed, millions displaced, an ancient and beautiful culture destroyed?

    Didn’t the U.S. invasion of Iraq serve to destabilize the region and result in more extremism and sectarian violence?

    And what about raining down terror on innocent civilians? Isn’t that exactly what the U.S. is doing right now with drone strikes in Pakistan, Somalia, and Yemen?

    But the U.S. ignores these acts of terror because when the U.S. does it, it’s legal and is a course of action that, in the words of the WH Press Secretary yesterday, is “least likely to result in the loss of innocent life… and is consistent with U.S. values and U.S. policy.”

    These, of course, are not consistent with the true core values that the people of the U.S. believe in. Rather, they represent the willful intention of the ruling elite to control peoples’ lives and international affairs come hell or high water. The level of U.S. hypocrisy continues to astound.

  403. Smith says:

    One of the most serious, most powerful and biggest lobbyist in US politics, proposes to nuke Iran in order to stop its nuclear program: http://swampland.time.com/2013/10/23/sheldon-adelson-nuke-iran/

    The question is not about the exact probability of such an event occurring in the next two decades which actually might. Specially if one remembers that US officially has not ruled out nuking Iran in order to stop its nuclear program and effect a regime change (whether directly or through a proxy as US did with chemical weapons against Iran).

    The question here is, what will be Iran’s response and what deterrence Iran has to prevent such a thing. The answer is clear. Iran does not have any response option, neither it has a deterrence. Just like, it did not have a deterrence against Saddam’s WMDs.

  404. thecelticwithinme says:

    Smith,

    what will be Iran’s response?

    That’s not the question at all. By that time, it won’t matter what Iran does to respond.

    In 2008, Bush was taught a lesson. Remember what Gandalf said: “do not be too eager to deal out death in judgement.”

    Think about it.

  405. Karl... says:

    Smith-
    Actually nothing new, atleast since Clinton nuclear weapons have actively been used a threat against certain states (Iraq, North Korea, Iran).

  406. fyi says:

    Smith says:

    October 23, 2013 at 5:16 pm

    Yes, the Americans, by and by, have degenerated so much and dragging everyone else with them to the bottom.

    The police just killed a 12 year old boy who was carrying a pellet-gun toy – thinking it was a real gun.

    Americans see an enemy behind every bush; being angry at the same time that the “Exceptional” People are not being loved “Exceptionally” by the rest of mankind.

    America is indeed an Empire, still, and paying for the maintenance of that eroding world dominance is undermining the health and wealth of the country at home.

    Americans are pursuing a collective dream -nightmare to others – they don’t want to give up: American exceptionalism.

    Britain was the same around 1900 or 1930: the glory days of Empire were behind, but it took another 40 to 60 years to sink in, i.e. until the 1970s or 1980s.

    Britain/UK finally gave up that ghost last year, after the financial crash of 2011.

  407. Don Bacon says:

    Smith says:
    October 23, 2013 at 5:16 pm
    The answer is clear. Iran does not have any response option, neither it has a deterrence.

    An ignorant statement. Iran has many options. To begin with–

    First, the UN would have to be warned to remove all inspectors, as in Iraq. Then all US warships would have to be removed from the Persian Gulf to positions at least 50 miles south in the Arabian Sea. They are sitting ducks for cruise missiles in the Gulf. So Iran gets advance notice.
    Ships are movable, land facilities are not. They are all soft targets for Iran’s extensive arsenal of missiles.
    – al-Minhad air base in Dubai, UAE
    – Fifth Fleet HQ – Bahrain
    – Kuwait, three bases, 15,000 US troops,, including a couple of brigade combat teams and a combat aviation brigade.
    – Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar, forward HQ of US Central Command
    – Overall in the region there are reportedly 40,000 American servicemen

  408. fyi says:

    Don Bacon says:

    October 24, 2013 at 11:22 am

    Yes, basically, US, just like UK after World War II, ought to remove her military forces from the Middle East.

  409. Karl.. says:

    Don Bacon

    You really think Iran pose a military threat to United States in a war? You really believe Iran could push american fleets out of the persian gulf? You really believe Iran will act as a madman if attacked?

    Indeed as Smith said, Iran have no deterrence and you just made it more clear.

  410. fyi says:

    Karl.. says:

    October 24, 2013 at 11:38 am

    The “madman” is not Iran.

    Indeed, if I had talent, I would have written a Symphonic Poem “In the Halls of the Mad King” – something between the ugliness of the “Rite of Spring” and the burlesque of the 5th movement of the Symphonie Fantastique.

  411. BiBiJon says:

    Karl.. says:
    October 24, 2013 at 11:38 am

    recommended reading:
    http://www.npr.org/2008/10/02/95285396/ex-cia-operative-discusses-the-devil-we-know

  412. kooshy says:

    Karl.. says:
    October 24, 2013 at 11:38 am

    Karl-

    You must be intelligent enough to know you are consciously using a wrong analogy/analysis, why I say that?
    Because according to yours, FYI’s as well as his warm up white men street orgy act Smithy boy,
    Iran is been in proxy war and a cold war with US and her allies for over 34 years, I believe up to hear every one on this board is with you guys.
    Where we depart is when you guys like RSH refuse to use past experience to model your future analysis, which in reality this is due and necessary for any planer before recommending Iran should spend her valuable economic and political resources to be prepared for a coming hot war with US. If you continue with your current stand, you would first need to explain to your audience why and when Iran was weaker in a time when US was much much stronger this 34 year old cold proxy war was never turned to a hot war, you need to share what were those preventive forces that prevented a hot war then and why they no longer are in play.
    In my opinion one important analyses for both side of this 34 year old conflict is an analytic calculation on the level and limit of tolerance for each side before committing and turning this cold conflict to a hot war, being it human casualty, military casualty, various internal, external or international economic casualties, have you thought about these and came to a conclusion that if a hot war get started, who’s going to start the war is it Iran, or the US, if is the US, do you have any idea why and when and where US’s tolerance will be limited and why that has not happened yet.

  413. James Canning says:

    Karl..,

    So-called U.S. “threats” to use nukes are in reality no such thing. Zero chance of U.S. first-strike nuke attack against another country.