Graphic from the Energy Tribune
The World Financial Review has published our latest piece, “America’s Shale Revolution and the Dangerous Myth of Energy Independence.”
–In this article, we explain that the burgeoning wave of discourse among American elites about how the “shale revolution” will let the United States achieve “energy independence” is fundamentally detached from physical and economic reality.
–We also underscore a critical strategic point flowing from this assessment: the proposition that attaining a mythical-yet-still-enthusiastically-sought condition of energy independence will let the United States become even more assertive toward countries determined to preserve and enhance their strategic independence—whether they are major energy exporters like Russia and Iran or major energy consumers like China—is dangerously delusional.
To read the article, click here; we’ve also appended the text (with links) below.
America’s Shale Revolution and the
Dangerous Myth of Energy Independence
Proponents of energy independence enshrine America’s so-called “shale revolution” as a geopolitical game changer, enabling the United States to leverage its prospective exports of shale oil and gas to weaken uncooperative hydrocarbon powers. Below, Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett argue that the shale revolution will not give the United States anything close to meaningful energy independence—something America shouldn’t seek anyway. The authors suggest that embracing the mythology of energy independence reinforces official Washington’s aversion to serious diplomacy with strategic rivals, thereby exacerbating America’s self-damaging and unnecessary confrontations with countries like Russia and Iran.
American elites have talked about “energy independence” for forty years—since the United States became a net oil importer in the early 1970s, around the time of the first major oil crisis. While they have rarely been precise or analytically rigorous in using the term, it seems to mean, in its most ambitious formulation, that the United States would never again have to import hydrocarbon molecules, in liquid or gaseous form. In a more restrained (but still pretty ambitious) version, U.S. demand for oil and gas imports would drop to levels satisfiable with supplies from “friendly” neighbors, rather than countries geopolitically at odds with Washington.
But, in either form, the notion of energy independence is a myth, and a dangerous one. It is a myth because it ignores the realities of today’s international oil and gas markets; it is dangerous because it conditions ill-advised foreign policy choices.
Shifting Visions
For much of the past forty years, American elites have talked about energy independence largely in terms of replacing hydrocarbons with alternative energy sources and/or in terms of managing demand. This vision treats the world’s reliance on hydrocarbons for over eighty percent of its energy as pathological—as an “addiction” needing treatment. In fact, the world’s reliance on hydrocarbons is highly rational. Hydrocarbons are high density, efficient fuels; especially in their liquid form, they are cheaper to transport and store than other kinds of fuel. Moreover, hydrocarbons themselves are cheap: a barrel of oil (even priced over $100) is cheaper than equal volumes of any other liquid on the planet—milk, Diet Coke, shampoo, even water. This makes it very hard to displace crude oil and other hydrocarbons—and explains why demand-based visions of energy independence have had no strategically meaningful impact on the global energy balance.
In recent years, discourse on energy independence has shifted from a demand-based narrative to a supply-based one, positing that America can produce enough oil and gas to obviate the need to import hydrocarbons. Key to this has been the “shale revolution,” wrought by applying hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” in U.S. oil and gas production. Supply-driven visions of energy independence hold that shale will not just enhance America’s energy security, but will revive its global primacy by increasing oil and gas supplies and lowering energy prices, in turn sparking a U.S. economic renaissance while undermining uncooperative hydrocarbon powers by taking market share from them and cutting their export revenues.
Shale Game
To be sure, the shale revolution has had a significant impact on U.S. energy production. As recently as 2007, shale accounted for just five percent of U.S. natural gas production; by 2012, it accounted for thirty-five percent of U.S. gas production, and that figure looks set to rise further. Many hold that shale will make America self-sufficient and then some in gas for years to come.
Conventional oil production in the United States—production from conventional reservoirs without fracking—peaked in 1970 at 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) and then declined, reaching a low of 5 million bpd in2008. But with shale coming on line, the United States rose to 7.5 million bpd of crude oil in 2013, making it the world’s third-largest producer (after Saudi Arabia and Russia); add in natural gas liquids and condensates, and U.S. liquid fuel production topped 11 million bpd. That is reducing U.S. demand for imported oil—in 2005, imports amounted to 60 percent of U.S. liquid fuel demand; by 2011, this figure had dropped to 45 percent; preliminary data for 2013 suggest it may now be down to 35 percent.
What Revolution?
This is all good news, as far as it goes. Over the last decade or so, energy imports have accounted for roughly half of America’s massive trade deficit. To the extent America has to import less oil and gas, it is clearly positive for the U.S. balance of payments. There are also measures of GDP and job growth associated with shale production. Still, there are strong reasons for skepticism as to the shale revolution’s scope and sustainability—and whether supply-based energy independence will be as strategically empowering for Washington as some say.
Certainly, the idea that the United States will ever export enough shale gas in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at sufficiently low prices to undercut the enormous built-in advantages that an established major gas producer like Russia enjoys in gas export markets in Eurasia seems highly fanciful. The U.S. government has so far approved five applications for LNG export projects, with another nineteen pending. But it is far from clear how much U.S. gas will actually be available for export in coming years.
Companies have gotten very good at producing U.S. shale gas—and, in the process, have driven North American gas prices so low as to weaken the case for more investment in new production. (Big energy companies that followed smaller independents into U.S. shale gas are now losing money on their plays.) And for those who think the United States could be exporting gas to Europe and the former Soviet Union within months, if Washington would just issue more licenses, developing a LNG train takes, literally, years.
It is also dauntingly expensive. By the time the first of the LNG trains to which the U.S. government has given export licenses comes on line next year, it will have cost at least $10 billion; costs for future trains will be at least that high. High upfront costs mean that investors only finance projects for which there are customers committed to buy the off take, for twenty or twenty-five years—which is why most of the LNG trains for which export licenses have been sought will never be built. (Some producers apply to boost low North American gas prices by fostering perceptions of overseas demand.)
Even if several trains come on line, their production will be a fraction of Russia’s gas exports to Europe. And, while European gas prices are higher than North American prices, it is virtually certain that most U.S. LNG will go to Asia, where prices are even higher than in Europe.
There are similarly serious questions about America’s shale oil boom. The International Energy Agency projects that U.S shale oil production will peak by 2020, plateau for a few years, then decline. U.S. conventional oil production continues declining, as does Gulf of Mexico production. This means that the cannibalisation of shale to replace lost production in other arenas will accelerate; after a decade or so, shale oil won’t keep overall U.S. oil production from peaking—and declining—again. Thus, the IEA expects that the world will continue looking to the Middle East for incremental oil production over the long term.
Dangerous Delusions
Pursuing energy independence, in defiance of reality in today’s oil and gas markets, is not just quixotic—it is counterproductive for America’s standing and influence. It is counterproductive most immediately because it reinforces official Washington’s longstanding conviction that the United States doesn’t have to engage in real diplomacy with strategic rivals—that is, diplomacy which recognises and accommodates their legitimate national interests (e.g., Russia’s interest in not having the West turn other post-Soviet states into anti-Russian platforms, or Iran’s interest in developing safeguarded but indigenously managed nuclear fuel cycle capabilities).
More broadly, American political and policy elites should understand that the opposite of energy independence is not energy dependence—it is energy interdependence. Since World War II, the stabilisation of energy interdependence has been a critical element in America’s standing as a great power.
For decades, America’s interest in stabilising energy interdependence has been embodied in its commitment to defend the free flow of Persian Gulf hydrocarbons to international markets. But the U.S. interest in Persian Gulf oil, from its origins in World War II, has never been primarily about America’s own energy needs.
The United States came out of World War II self-sufficient and then some in oil production—it was, by the definitions laid out above, energy independent. It would not become a net oil importer until the early 1970s, more than a quarter century after the war’s end. And even after becoming a net importer, America has never met that high a percentage of its own oil demand with Middle Eastern imports. America’s interest in the Persian Gulf has never been about Persian Gulf oil to satisfy its own energy demand—it is about the ability to control who gets access to Persian Gulf oil.
Coming out of World War II, America wanted to guarantee Persian Gulf oil flows to Western Europe and Japan, because it judged (well before the Cold War) that providing secure and cheap energy supplies to these states would be essential to their postwar recovery—and their recovery was deemed essential to America’s own long-term economic prospects. In wider perspective, U.S.-provided energy security would lock Europe and Japan into long-term economic and security partnerships with the United States. For nearly seventy years—even after the OPEC revolution of the 1970s ended the West’s ability to control energy prices—this has remained the real foundation of America’s interest in maintaining determinative influence over the production and marketing of Persian Gulf hydrocarbons: to bolster its strategic standing in other important parts of the world.
The perceived need to dominate Persian Gulf hydrocarbon flows has also prompted Washington to try assiduously to suppress the emergence of independent power centers in the region (e.g., the CIA’s 1953 coup that brought down a democratically elected nationalist government in Iran). Since the Cold War’s end, the United States has unwisely doubled down on this approach, seeking a level of hegemonic supremacy in the Persian Gulf it was constrained from seeking during the Cold War. Hegemonic aspiration has led U.S. administrations to pursue policies that have actually decreased the security of Persian Gulf hydrocarbon flows to international markets—e.g., keeping substantial military forces on the ground in the region after the first Persian Gulf War, maintaining international sanctions on Iraq that killed over a million Iraqis (half of them children), invading Iraq in 2003 and occupying it for years, and threatening to impose extraterritorial (hence illegal) sanctions on third-country entities transacting with Iran.
As such policies have worked against global energy security, they have also damaged America’s international position. But the negative impact of these policies doesn’t mean that achieving a (mythical) condition of energy independence would make the United States stronger. It would actually reduce the tools available to U.S. policymakers to promote America’s standing and influence around the world.
The flip side of the claim that the shale revolution will enable America to undermine uncooperative hydrocarbon powers is the assertion that supply-based energy independence will let the United States wash its hands of the Middle East and its challenges. This is misguided; even if the most optimistic projections of shale gas and shale oil production in the United States are realised, U.S. shale producers will still be operating in a global market, especially for oil. Therefore, the United States is still going to have to care what happens in the Persian Gulf—because what happens there has a big effect on energy prices.
More fundamentally, those who say that the shale revolution will enable the United States to become less interested in the Middle East are basically saying that the United States should remove itself from the great power business. In reality, the United States needs to abandon post-Cold War delusions of hegemony, and get serious about being a great power—by engaging in strategically grounded, balance of power diplomacy with other important global and regional states, and by working with others in a genuinely cooperative way to secure the global public good of energy security.
–Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett
The case for shale gas and its future potential are no more about technicalities, prospecting or even economics. It is about hubris. It is about being stuck in 1991 (and/or 2001). It is about a particular variety of religious prophesies.
On the other hand, say for the sake of a thought experiment tomorrow through a “miracle” US becomes self sufficient in cheap gas and oil. Say also, we discard the consequences of Jevons paradox. Say US even provides all the gas and oil of EU too. Even Ukraine’s too. Will this mean, everything is going to be ok? Not at all. In 1960’s when US was self sufficient in oil and gas, the US was manufacturing not only all of its needs in its truest sense (from clothes to toys to auto-parts etc etc) but also exporting them as well.
Today, US is importing almost all of its needs from countries which in turn are importing oil and gas to manufacture the needs of America. Just because your slaves are now buying the oil and gas on your behalf and satisfy your needs, it does not mean that you have become self sufficient. The days of energy self sufficiency for US are gone. The only way for US to turn the clock back while keeping its economy growing would be a technological leap so profound that would push humanity past into type 1 civilization on Kardashev scale. A leap that would need either large scale feasible fusion or antimatter reactors. Despite being a believer in American ingenuity and scientific vigor, I am highly skeptical that US would be able to lift this one anytime soon if ever, (though I would not be at all surprised if this came from US).
Nasser says:
June 4, 2014 at 11:53 pm
And thank you to you sir,
I agree fully, needless to say. All these large and fundamental projects need government support regardless of their private or public nature. Be it an imaginary foundry in Iran or the Bell labs in US. Even Kotex let alone Kleenex would not have been possible without US Army support. Though the efficient and smart way would be for the government to support private entities specially in super-corrupt countries like Iran where sag does not recognize its saheb. We have to have private industrial entrepreneurs (in competition with each other) whom government funds to command the industrial growth of the nation. The government by itself has utterly failed in this regard.
And you are correct that there will be no turn-key ToT anymore at least from the west. Those days are now gone. But an effort can be made towards China and Russia before even these options disappear as well. But more important than this, is the fact that at the end of the day, it comes to Iranians to take up R&D and develop their own solutions to their very own problems. As a believer in equality of all humanity, I can assure you that not only Iranians but also any other nation can also produce high quality and even higher quality products. For this we just need to get rid of cago cult. The rest is going to be easy. The part to get people thinking and asking questions is the real difficulty (as you can see here). We need more people like fyi and less of mofos kind. Specially among the youths.
Excellent post, perhaps the best of the year so far.
Brings to mind Daniel Yergin’s book “The Prize: Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power,” which was the basis of a 1993 PBS documentary series. Here is episode one of which all are available on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qspu35JG59Q&list=PLjkQwFGo73ueJqF6q5AntrWoHrvlGiCLe
However, on the flip side, not necessarily taking into account the geopolitical ramifications but the ecological where it concerns the burning of fossil fuels, I strongly advocate viewing the Cosmos: A SpaceTime Odyssey episode “The World Set Free,” which is available free on Hulu:
America’s independence in energy is not good for the country’s military establishment and Israel lobby groups. If it happens, Washington would lose its “reasons” to invade every Muslim nation-state which has either oil or refuses to agree with Israel’s dominance in the Middle East.
How many brainwashed Americans know that United States imports only 6% of its oil needs from the Gulf States while 65% from Canada and the rest from South America and Africa?
http://rehmat1.com/2009/03/31/mali-al-qaeda-no-its-gold-uranium-and-israel-stupid/
Pirouz says:
June 5, 2014 at 4:21 am
When US destroyed democracy in Iran in 1953, it was not for oil or for Cold War.
It was because her leaders and operatives enjoyed the exhilarating sense of victory and conquest and superiority against USSR as well as against the Iranian people.
US did not need Iranian oil and Iran was not strategically that significant.
Men are in a State of Fall, that is all.
Gareth Porter is in Tehran. His Press TV interview (~14 min) can be seen below:
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/06/05/365661/israel-mko-in-cahoots-against-iran/
Every one is not an idiot in Iran: http://khordadnews.ir/news/52679
We read:
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این استاد اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان با اشاره به سخن کینز، یکی از اقتصاددانان معروف، گفت: “اگر میخواهید ملتی را نابود کنید، کم هزینهترین، راحتترین و پنهانترین ابزار، تورم است. یک تورم بلند مدت ایجاد کنید زیرا آرام آرام تمام بنیانهای اخلاقی و اقتصادی آن ملت نابود میشود”.
رنانی با بیان اینکه ایران تنها کشوری در دنیا است که در 40 سال گذشته (جز یک سال) دارای تورم دو رقمی بوده است، افزود: تورم یک حرکت جنگی برای اقتصاد بیمار ما است. تورم مستمر در هر کشوری «مساله نان» ایجاد می کند و غم نان می آورد و غم نان وقتی بلندمدت شد به پرخاشگری و عصبیت اجتماعی و در هم ریزی هنجاری می انجامد. از 50 کشور که بالاترین واردات گندم را درجهان داشته اند، 25 کشور مسلمان هستند که از این تعداد، 18 کشور در خاورمیانه قرار دارند و از این کشورها 11 کشور درگیر شورش، آشوب و جنگ هستند.
موسس «مراکز هم اندیشی توسعه استانها» یادآور شد: تمام کشورهای توسعه یافته، در فرایند توسعه دستکم سه ویژگی داشته اند که عبارتند از پایبندی مقامات و مسؤولان به قانون؛ دوری نظامیان از سیاست و اقتصاد؛ توانایی جامعه در تاسیس بنگاههایی که طول عمرشان بیشتر از مؤسسان آنها است. به عنوان نمونه هم اکنون ژاپن دارای 100 هزار بنگاه با طول عمری بیشتر از عمر مؤسسان آنها است.
این استاد اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان با بیان اینکه ورود نظامیان به اقتصاد امکان توسعه را از ما میگیرد، افزود: ورود نظامیان به عرصه های عمومی کشور تنها در یک دوره کوتاه مدت و برای ایجاد ثبات و امنیت قابل دفاع است، اما متأسفانه نظامیان در کشور ما زمانی وارد اقتصاد شدند که اقتصاد در حالت امنیت و ثبات قرار داشت.
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وی با بیان اینکه در فضای عدم اطمینان تصمیمگیری مختل میشود، ادامه داد: در فضای عدم اطمینان، سرمایهگذار خطر را نمیشناسد و احتمال وقوع آن را نیز نمیداند و جرأت حرکت ندارد. در این فضا، فعالان اقتصادی نمیتوانند اطلاعات درستی داشته باشند و بنابراین نمی توانند محاسبه اقتصادی کنند، در نتیجه امکان تصمیم گیری عقلانی و برنامه ریزی از آنها سلب می شود. متاسفانه در سالهای اخیر اقتصاد ایران وارد فضای عدم اطمینان شده است و بخشی از رکود کنونی نیز ناشی از همین عدم اطمینان است.
این استاد اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان با بیان اینکه فساد عظیم ایجاد شده در اقتصاد ایران نیز به خاطر عدم اطمینان است، تصریح کرد: چون در شرایط عدم اطمینان، سرمایه گذار نمی تواند هیچ تصمیمی بگیرد مجبور است سه کار بکند: یا این که اصولا خود را از فعالیت اقتصادی کنار بکشد، یا اینکه از راه مستقیم سرمایه گذاریهای رسمی خارج و وارد باندهای قدرت شود یا این که مسائل خود را طریق فساد و رشوه پیش ببرد.
If the US seriously wanted “energy independence”, it would have increased the federal gas tax by three or four dollars. Instead, the US Congress is afraid to increase the federal gas tax by three or four cents.
Humanits,
Bravo, Gareth Porter. And Peter Jenkins.
Rehmat,
The US indeed has little or no need for oil or gas from the Persian Gulf. And you are correct in thinking most Americans are not aware of that fact.
fyi,
American “Big OIl” wanted a share of the Iranian oil production, and the opportunity to force Britain to share it was taken. In 1953.
Allen Dulles (CIA) and his brother, John Foster Dulles, US Sec of State, were former partners in powerful international law firm, Sullivan & Cromwell in New York. They set up the overthrow of Mossadegh as part of deal to bring into Iran’s oil industry major non-British companies.
fyi,
The CIA’s station chief in Tehran refused to back the French and American effort to gain a share of the Iranian oil market, and he resigned.
President Obama Working Out In a Polish Gym , one commentator wrote :
“”Wolfgang
20 hours ago
That workout was gayer than dyeing your asshair pink. “”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExQcrf80OSI
Gareth porter interview with Presstv
Gareth Porter stated in the interview that he does not see a deal happening by 20 july deadline. He is indeed correct because there is about to be major “ingredients change” deep inside western bunker. The article below lists these ingredient changes.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/06/ashton-burns-retire-congress-changes-worry-iran.html
fyi says:
June 5, 2014 at 10:06 am
Not true from what I have read, first of all the cope was asked by the Brits and was agreed to by the Eisenhower admin. We should keep in mind that Brits are the closest allies of the US my grandfather use to say that they are US’s parasites living off of US which is true, in turn US needs them to regulate and balance the Europe even today Obama just said if Brits leave EU, EU’s can’t (wouldn’t ‘t) continue, that is another reason the UK is a EU member but has her own currency independence so she wouldn’t be dominated by bigger German economy, so when the ones lap dog’s energy, and financial economy becomes desperate, obviously the owner will help to save the dog.
But the other reason as important for US, according to Ravanshad Allahyar Saleh (read his memoirs), who was Iran’s ambassador to US during the cope, a few days before the second cope he goes to setae department and offers the American to fully cooperate and resolve the issue, but he was told it was impossible to reverse the decision since the nationalization shouldn’t become a precedent for others in the world.
No deal will be forthcoming from the West because the West continues to believe that its behavior so far has been rewarded. Its sanctions policy has brought Iran to the table, Iran’s economy is in shambles, Iranians really need a deal, …
Moreover, the West’s interest continues to be served, at least in the short term, by widening the current circle of destabilization in the middle east and east. The long term goal of “the exceptionals” running the world depends on it!
These fantasies, or theories as the West would like to call them, are strong driving forces!
While the West works to undermine Iran, Iran continues to work on strengthening her “resistance economy” – barters, non-dollar exchange, re-sourcing, … Mr. Zarif and Pres. Rouhani should know well that there will be no deal with the West. Mr. Rouhani would do well to remember what learned early on during the US incursion into Afghanistan – once the West’s “donkey” has “crossed” the bridge….
Syria’s Election Shows Depth of Support for Assad
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/syrias-election-shows-depth-support-assad-23995883
As the Leveretts have been saying here for two years…
Max Hastings has some interesting observations in the Sunday Times (London) May 25th: “Losing the peace: this first-rate history charts the mess the United States left behind when it failed to lead the world after the Great War”.
(Review of “The Deluge — The Great War and the Remaking of Global Order 1916-1931”, by Adam Tooze)
Jay,
Peter Jenkins has a piece you should read at LobeLog.com this week: “A nuclear deal with Iran is still odds-on”.
Kooshy,
Britain wanted US backing for an overthrow of Mossadegh. Truman was reluctant, but when Eisenhower entered the White House in early 1953, the deal was made.
Kooshy,
An interesting aspect of Eisenhower administration backing of Britain in the 1953 coup was that John Foster Dulles was anti-British, in the main. But the deal offered an opportunity for US and other countries to enter the Iranian oil market.
Jay says:
June 5, 2014 at 5:05 pm
“No deal will be forthcoming”
Jay I think at the end of the day in next 6 month there will come a resolution “Deal” on Iran nuclear file. The sign I see is that the Americans have and are lowering their public expectations with accepting Iran enrichment program, meaning they have came down a lot since the start, on the contrary Iranian have not changed or gave up anything permanently meaning 5 world Vito powers including US have accepted to negotiate with Iran while Iran refuses to obey by the resolutions they passed. We all know the one country that never really accepted enrichment in Iran is now talking about reducing the brake out time and even asking for limiting delivery capability to less than 1000km.do you remember what they demanded in 2010, 11 and what they are hoping in 2014, if they came down this far who knows how far they can go to reach an strategic understanding ( not a partnership) to balance and stabilize their allies and suppliers in Western Asia. At this stage with Eastern Europe entering a civil war, Far East with growing strategic issues Iran’s nuclear file don’t look as big as some others specially since Iran wants and demands stability in her region and is willing to truly help to increase the regional stability even accepting regimes like in KSA, Bahrain, and Egypt.
I think at the end of the day we will see a time framed nuclear file normalizing deal ( some sort of self imposed restriction since we don’t have use for and till we will have a use for the material
Iran’s nuclear program never was to make a nuclear bomb and test for there was no need to do that all Iran had to do it was show that she has the knowledge and the capacity to make a bomb when and if she is attacked to retaliate, that now has been exceptionally and relatively cheaply achieved and has been understood well and clear delivered to Iran’s enemies. A job done well.
fyi
Before the Islamic Revolution, Iran used to supply 80% of Israel’s oil need and at $2 lower per barrel than the price set by OPEC.
No wonder, Rabbi David Weiss said: “The best Israeli propagandists are the most ignorant Jews.”
US: Making of a hero out of an army deserter
http://rehmat1.com/2014/06/06/us-making-of-a-hero-out-of-an-army-deserter/
kooshy says:
June 5, 2014 at 7:34 pm
Kooshy,
I hope you are correct in your assessment. I am not optimistic — not yet!
One must remember that while there is talk of compromise and thresholds and inspections and extensions and so on… there is also pressure on India to reduce imports from Iran, pressure on BNP to fire executives dealing with Iran, assessing a fine on Fokker for selling civilian airplane parts to Iran, lining up Bills in congress to put more pressure on Iran, attempting to close financial routes so Iran cannot buy medicine…..
Were it to be true that the public is being “conditioned”, the policy of “encirclement” would have been eased – if not downright eliminated.
There is also the other annoying fact – US having decided that she is no longer capable of economically competing with China on an even playing field. The Western alliance has to come up with a set of tools to counter the Chinese, China-Russia cooperation, etc. Recall that the rise of every empire is preceded by an economic rise.
Although the Russia-China gas deal is not nearly enough for China, it has taken a bit of pressure off. To add pressure, a fluctuating, less than stable energy market is one answer that is well-suited for China. US policy of hegemony cannot afford to let Iran reign over a stable Persian Gulf.
I can see the US agreeing to interim (tactical) deals in order to reorganize and rearrange her assault – but, the pessimist in me does not see a deal coming.
Jay says:
June 5, 2014 at 9:37 pm
Jay
I also don’t believe that there will be a strategic partnership or alliance (that will not be compatible and beneficial or add security to Iran’s standing in her region), but I think what has happened is an strategic understanding like Ayatollah Khamenei covered in her last very major speech, this means US has recognized Iran as a major regional power but not an ally, friend, or client. With this in mind you are right that US will not leave Iran alone as long as she can but not necessary she need to or is beneficial any longer to use the nuclear tool. With so much push and shove the nuclear tool may no longer be safe to use if advances Iran further, how much more pressure on Iran’s file will make Iran push for an strategic alliance with other powers, or would a powerful alliance of Iran and Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah have the power to destabilize American clients in the region. At the same time Iran and her regional allies can use some period of stability and calm to re make and re construct. So to me both sides needs some period of re organizing and perhaps re stationing their energies. Again we all know last decades disastrous policies have badly wounded America and her allies otherwise like in Bush era America would have never accepted to negotiate with Iran unless Iran would have fully implemented the UNSC resolutions.
kooshy says:
June 6, 2014 at 12:01 am
The Axis Powers decided to destroy Iran rather than strategically settle with her.
That left Iran with the single option of alignment with Russia and China.
On the other hand, India’s alignment with Axis Powers, the value of Pakistan to China and Iran to both Russia & China increases significantly.
I think we can expect the Shia Crescent and Axis Powers to remain antagonistic for the foreseeable future – perhaps decades.
Why it has become even more important for Iran to increase its spending on R&D and sciences in addition to battling cargo cult: http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/science/2014/06/140606_science_iran_sanction.shtml
Failure to do so means Iran falling behind even further than already is.
fyi
From what I have observed and understand, the post revolution Iran is not looking nor sees a need (yet) to align with anyone except with countries and communities that share same religion, or countries and communities that share and respect greater Iranian culture. As you say the map of states with these shared values makes an east to west crescent with Iran geographically, militarily, politically, economically and industrially on her center, starting in central Asia and extending to the shores of Mediterranean Lebanon and Syria. As matter of Iranian revolution, today this has become an irreversible fact which all wars and insurgencies, etc. of past decade by major world powers has not been able to reverse.
I agree that animosities with major western powers and their regional clients will not go or fade away for some time to come. Since the axis powers with their mistakes and misconducts have and are cooking more major strategic problems for themselves, it may have become necessary for them to buy time with a tactical change with regard to Iran and her regional allies, this also can be true and somewhat necessary for Iran and her allies in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and also economically for Iran to consolidate and rebuilt their base. This might be or become incentive for a temporary compromise of sort by both sides; never less strategically these sides will remain enemies for some time to come.
Not every one is a fool in Iran:
موسی غنینژاد: عامل اصلی شکل گیری فساد اقتصادی،اقتصاد رانتی است که به ساختار دولتی اقتصاد بازمیگردد. در هر جای دنیا وقتی بخش عمده تخصیص منابع اقتصادی به طریقی در اختیار دولت قرار گیرد و دولت به بهانههای مختلف در بازار دخالت کرده و قیمتگذاری کند، بازارهای دوگانه سیاه و رسمی ایجاد میشود که از عوامل اصلی فسادند.
غنی نژاد : باور عمومی بر این است که اقتصاد سرمایهداری فساد ایجاد میکند مثلاً چون سرمایهدارها دنبال منافع خصوصی خودشان هستند آنها افراد را فاسد میکنند در حالی که درست برعکس است یعنی در اقتصاد دولتی است که فساد گسترش مییابد.
علیاصغرسعیدی : این دولتها بودهاند که با سازوکارهایی که ایجاد کردهاند، به شکلگیری این نوع از کارآفرینی دامن زدهاند.
سعیدی : در خارج هم پیشینه تحصیلی عامل تعیینکنندهای برای پیشرفت اقتصادی کارآفرینی نیست ریچارد برانسون رئیس شرکت ویرجین در خاطراتش نوشته که برای سخنرانی به دانشکده مدیریت دانشگاه آکسفورد رفتم، اولین چیزی که به دانشجویان گفتم این بود که من درس مدیریت نخواندم و اینجا آمدم به شما این را بگویم، شما هم فکر نکنید چون آمدید اینجا میتوانید کارآفرین شوید.
سعیدی: در مورد گروهی از کارآفرینان دوره پهلوی میتوان گفت برقراری ارتباط با دولت برایشان اجتنابناپذیر بوده است. حال برخی، این روابط را به محدوده کسبوکار خود وارد نمیکردند و برخی چنین محدودیتی را برای خود قائل نبودند. اما به عقیده من گروه دوم، دارای خاستگاههای تجاری به قوامی که گروه اول داشتند نبودند و آنان که از دهه ۱۳۵۰ وارد فضای کسبوکار شدند، ارتباطات بیشتری با خانواده سلطنتی برقرار می کردند.
سعیدی:اما آنچه در سالهای پس از انقلاب به وجود آمد، پدیدهای کاملاً جدید بود. به این دلیل که انقلاب ساختار سیاسی و اقتصادی را تغییر داد و در طبقه حاکمه نیز تغییر ایجاد کرد. تعداد نوکیسهها نیز رو به فزونی گذاشت و اکنون از طبقات مختلفی سعی دارند از طریق رابطه با دولت رشد کنند. البته تحرک اجتماعی نیز این مساله را ممکن میکند چون گروههای مسلط در دولت هم دائماً در حال تغییر هستند.
غنی نژاد: ساختار اقتصادی ما بهگونهای است که دست و پای کارآفرینان را بسته است. برخی کارآفرینان و فعالان اقتصادی به این میاندیشند که اگر میخواهند موفق شوند نه تنها در سطوح بالا که در سطوح پایین باید رشوه بپردازند. این به ساختار بوروکراتیک و دولتی اقتصاد ما برمیگردد. اگر ساختار تغییر نکند، چیزی عوض نمیشود
غنی نژاد: دکتر روحانی گفته است ما خواستار اقتصاد آزاد هستیم . صراحتاً حداقل یک بار من این را از ایشان شنیدهام. ولی بدون رقابت، اقتصاد آزاد معنی ندارد. وقتی همه چیز موکول میشود به امضاهای طلایی برای اخذ مجوز و رئیس شعبه یک بانک اختیاراتی دارد که سرنوشت یک کارآفرین بزرگ را که هزاران نفر برایش کار میکنند میتواند تغییر دهد، رابطهها منشاء فساد میشوند
غنی نژاد: چه کسی این حق را به دولت داده است که به کسی اعتماد کند و این مقدار از بیتالمال ) پول نفت)را به او( بابک زنجانی) بسپارد؟ این اعتماد، غیرقانونی است و کسی که چنین خطایی را مرتکب شده باید در دادگاه پاسخگو باشد. اما متاسفانه، مسببان این فساد از زیر بار پاسخگویی شانه خالی میکنند.
غنی نژاد: اگرمسائلی که درباره رانتهای بزرگ اتفاق افتاد در مطبوعات بازتاب پیدا میکرد و روزنامهنگاران با آزادی آنها را افشا میکردند کسی جرات نمیکرد دست به چنین فسادهای گستردهای بزند. مدام میشنویم که میگویند میخواهیم با فساد مبارزه کنیم، یک راهش این است که تضمینی به روزنامهنگاران و مطبوعات بدهند که امنیتشان تضمین شود تا پیگیر فسادها و سوءاستفادههای اقتصادی شوند.
غنی نژاد: این تصور که با این اعدامها یا سختگیریها مساله حل میشود کاملاً اشتباه است. این دو مورد اخیر (پرونده های مربوط به بابک زنجانی و مه آفرید خسروی) در یک بستر تاریخی و موقعیت خاص سیاسی اتفاق افتادهاند؛ یعنی زمانی که تحریمها شروع شد و ما یک دولت پوپولیستی داشتیم. آن دولت پوپولیستی ویژگیاش این بود که احترامی برای قانون، مجلس و کارشناسان قائل نبود. فقط یک هدف در ذهنش بود که من فقط میخواهم به مردم خدمت کنم، خدمت به مردم هم آن چیزی است که من تصور میکنم و به هیچ چیزی دیگری هم پاسخگو نیستم.
سعیدی: البته فسادهای اقتصادی ممکن است دیگر اینگونه رخ ندهد اما شکلاش عوض میشود. تا زمانی که دولت شفاف عمل نکند و زمینه رقابت را فراهم نکند امکان این نوع سوءاستفادهها به اشکال مختلف وجود دارد.
سعیدی: به نظرم اینگونه فسادها، دو پیامد خواهد داشت . یک پیامد آن تاثیرش بر حافظه تاریخی است، خصوصاً سرمایهگذاری کارآفرینان واقعی. میزان ریسکپذیریشان پایین خواهد آمد، چون ما این قضیه را بهطور کامل بررسی نکردهایم و با آن بهطور همهجانبه برخورد نشده است. دومین مساله که باز به همان مساله حافظه جمعی بستگی دارد خاطره بدی است که امکان دارد کارآفرینان را مردد کند و آن مساله انباشت سرمایه است.
غنی نژاد: به نظر من حتماً ایشان (مه آفرید خسروی) یک کارآفرین بود. منتها کارآفرینی بود که تخلف میکرد چون در دادگاه اثبات شد که تخلف داشت. چند هزار نفر زیر نظر مجموعه او در شرکتهای مختلف مشغول به کار بودند. حالا در یک مسیری رفته، تخلف یا فساد کرده، این مساله آن ویژگیاش را از بین نمیبرد.
سعیدی: با کارآفرینان دوران پهلوی که صحبت میکردم آنها نظرشان نسبت به افرادی که با سوءاستفاده بهعنوان کارآفرین شناخته شدهاند منفی بود، میگفتند که کارآفرینی خیلی زحمت دارد. اینها زحمت نکشیدهاند. چون آنها سالها زحمت کشیده بودند،
سعیدی: گفته مشهور آقای “محمد حسین برخوردار” (یکی از کارآفرینان پیش از انقلاب) که همه مدیرانشان به نقل از او روایت می کنند، این است که اگر ما میدانستیم انباشت سرمایه کار را به اینجا میرساند یک کار کوچک میکردیم.
http://khabargardi.com/news/970007/%D8%B3%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%B1%D8%B3%DB%8C-%DA%86%DA%AF%D9%88%D9%86%DA%AF%DB%8C-%D8%B4%DA%A9%D9%84-%DA%AF%DB%8C%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D9%85%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%B2%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B3%DB%8C-%D8%BA%D9%86%DB%8C-%D9%86%DA%98%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D9%88-%D8%B9%D9%84%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%B5%D8%BA%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D8%B9%DB%8C%D8%AF%DB%8C
Doctors of religion themselves are confused: http://tejarat.donya-e-eqtesad.com/fa/packagestories/details?service=economy&story=e641315e-4d19-4ee1-a654-f516f1642a52
Of course this is normal after trying to wake up from an 800 years of sleep. Islam has utterly failed to put forward an economic theory. The Western world has put forward numerous economic theories.
What happens to hard workers and risk takers in Iran: http://tejarat.donya-e-eqtesad.com/image.ashx?path=MjAxNC8xLzEyLzI1MTEzOWE0LTg2ZDUtNWJlMC1hOGYwLWEzOTk1ZWE1MzMzYS5qcGc!&size=0x0&sizemode=NoResize
Then the cargo cult wonders why the economy is not improving.
kooshy says:
June 6, 2014 at 12:01 am
I think we agree that the current “dance” is not a “date” but a “come on”!
The kind of communique just issued by G7 (see below with my comments) is the sort of “list of demands” that suggests to me that little has changed.
Iran
12. We reaffirm our strong commitment to a diplomatic resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue and welcome the efforts by the E3+3, led by High Representative Ashton, and Iran to negotiate a comprehensive solution that provides confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme (diplomatic talk for: all options remain on the table and Iran needs to scale back its program). We underline the importance of the continuing effective implementation by the E3+3 and Iran of the Joint Plan of Action (diplomatic talk for: stop or significantly slow down your scientific drive). We call on Iran to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency on verification of Iran’s nuclear activities and to resolve all outstanding issues, including, critically, those relating to possible military dimensions (diplomatic talk for: we need you to stop developing missiles and delivery vehicles). We strongly urge Iran to fully respect its human rights obligations (diplomatic talk for: once we get what we want on the nuclear issue, we are going to bring pressure from this angle). We call on Iran to play a more constructive role in supporting regional security, in particular in Syria, and to reject all acts of terrorism and terrorist groups (diplomatic talk for: stop making alliances that resist our hegemony).
Kooshy,
The US continues to support the Shia-controlled central government of Iraq. You appear to argue the US and other European countries are seeking its overthrow.
fyi,
By “seeking to destroy Iran”, you apparently mean by seeking to restrict Iran’s nuclear programme. Correct?
James Canning says:
June 6, 2014 at 1:36 pm
We have gone over this before and I was very clear as to what was at stake.
The aim has been state-destruction of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Syrian Arab Republic, followed by destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Shia government in Iraq.
James Canning says:
June 6, 2014 at 1:35 pm
US could withdraw her support and leave the field to Iran – that is all.
The Shia and their syncretic brethren are those fighting Israel; thus Shia are enemies of the Axis Powers.
Look no further than the release of Mullah Mohammad Fazl by US; a man responsible for the murders of thousands of the Shia in Afghanistan.
kerry is desperate now on syria, check his latest statement here:
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2014/Jun-04/258862-kerry-calls-on-hezbollah-russia-iran-to-bring-syria-war-to-an-end.ashx#axzz33sw7zIqw
@Jay
This is an interesting communique. If what you cited is the only section related to Iran, then it represents an important political retreat for E3 + US. Not asking compliance with the UN resolutions, which are the ones that are directly targeting Iran’s missile and heavy water programs means from a political perspective that, in the current context, the US is ready to eventually agree to a settlement regarding those issues. This is not to say that we will witness friendship and camaraderie between an independent Iran and the US, lets say for the next decade or so, but – and I believe Kooshy is suggesting it too – that America see herself in a strategic position were she has to accommodate a regional independent power for now. The rest is a matter of how intelligently you play your cards in the future in this game. And, personally, I trust Iranian leadership more than the Western ones to continue marking points in this battle.
fyi
Look at over a dozen Israeli Jewish leaders wanted for war crimes in Britain, South Africa, Lebanon and Ireland.
http://rehmat1.com/2014/05/16/britain-hosts-israeli-war-criminal-tzipi/
US author and peace activist Phil Wilayto in a recent interview with IRNA said that the legacy of the leader of 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, Imam Khomeini was to fight against western imperialism, colonialism and human rights abuses – and establish unity among Muslims around the world.
“Imam Khomeini was the leader of the last popular revolution of the century which has influenced other regional nations for its peaceful and nonviolent manner,” said Wilayto.
http://rehmat1.com/2014/06/06/us-author-imam-khomeini-established-a-real-democracy-in-iran/
Ataune says:
June 6, 2014 at 3:09 pm
That is correct they may tactically decide having an independent Iran (somewhat a weaker power than if aligned) much more desirable than an Iran and her allies strategically aligned with one or more other poles / powers. That decision is / will reach once the military / economic destruction is no longer possible in conjunction with other rising strategic priorities for the west. If so this period (fire under ash) can also help Iran to beef up her capabilities.
Interesting comment from daily star link Karl posted earlier on Kerry’s desperation on Syria (This Kerry is really a hypocrite and an imbursement to this country)
“He (Kerry) said the vote was “meaningless, because you can’t have an election where millions of your people don’t even have an ability to vote.”
Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2014/Jun-04/258862-kerry-calls-on-hezbollah-russia-iran-to-bring-syria-war-to-an-end.ashx#ixzz33tLIZuwr
“Knowles2 • 2 days ago
Well Ukraine held a vote during a civil war and that been welcome by the West, Syria vote is no different.”
Avatar
Tassiedev123 Knowles2 • a day ago
Ukraine doesn’t have a dictator in power. Duh
Knowles2 Tassiedev123 • a day ago
The person that was in power, wasn’t place there by elections. So yes the elections did take place under a dictator. No one in the east of the country voted in the elections and were blocked from voting.
Michaelinlondon1234 Knowles2 • 6 hours ago
Nicely stated.
This is an interesting write up coming out of the American propaganda machine. If correct everyone including Obama feels and knows they need to downsize operation by lowering their exposure and expenses in the region, so they may seek some sort of mutual understanding here is the interesting part.
“Saudi leaders, who have long considered their alliance with Washington crucial to national security, have watched warily as President Obama has prioritized the Iranian nuclear deal over other regional issues. They also feel betrayed because Mr. Obama has not given greater backing to Syria’s rebels and did not enforce his “red line” after Washington accused Mr. Assad of carrying out a chemical attack killed hundreds of Syrians last year.”
Saudi Arabia has sought to adjust by promoting security cooperation in the gulf. And in April, it dropped its traditional discretion about military matters by televising its largest-ever maneuvers and showing off powerful ballistic missiles.
“We are seeing the Saudis realize that they can’t expect the Americans to be there every minute for them and that they have to take more responsibility for their own security and influence in the region,” said Robert W. Jordan, a former American ambassador to the kingdom.
But in addition to doubting Iran’s intentions, the Saudis are wary of offering any concessions of their own in a conflict both sides often see as a zero-sum game.
Saudi officials say they feel they have largely “lost” Iraq, where the Shiite prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, has pursued policies that have enraged the Sunni minority
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/07/world/middleeast/as-iran-gains-influence-saudi-arabia-revisits-ties-built-on-distrust.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
fyi,
Hezbollah has made clear it is not especially interested in “fighting Israel”.
Iraq is not interested in “fighting Israel”. For that matter, Iran is not interested in “fighting Israel”.
fyi,
Saudi Arabia might like to see the overthrow of the Shia-controlled gvoernment in Iraq, but this clearly is NOT US policy.
The effort to overthrow the Syrian government was and is closely related to Saudi fears Iran would bring war to the Gulf by failing to make a deal with the P5+1.
Certain powerful Sunnis would indeed like to see Hezbollah smashed in Lebanon. But that is not US policy.
James Canning says:
June 6, 2014 at 7:03 pm
The Shia Crescent is the only Muslim alliance that supports Palestinians to the hilt in their struggle against Israel and the Fantasy Project of Jews in Palestine; a.k.a. Zionism.
Axis Powers – for religious and geopolitical reasons – seeks to destroy that power.
I have covered these grounds before in more detail.
As long as Axis Powers are unwilling to disengage from their religious struggle on behalf of Israel, there can be no change.
US declared enemies of Israel to be her enemies, once the Mad King spoke thus, the Mad Barons followed suite.
For one has to ask why is Iran the enemy of Italy or Spain or Denmark?
James Canning says:
June 6, 2014 at 7:06 pm
I think it no longer matters much how and why Axis Powers initiated the war to wound Iran in Syria; whether it was out of religious zeal for Zionism, or because they were manipulated by the crafty Arabs.
The salient feature – beyond the immediate death and destruction in Syria – has been the consolidation of the Shia Power and its strengthening from the Hindu Kush to the Mediterranean Sea.
This cannot be unlived.
The Axis Powers could have settled with Iran in 2007 – strategically.
They had the US NIE on Iran and therefore had the political cover to do so.
They could have acknowledged that Iran had enormously benefited by the US destruction of Ba’ath state in Iraq and go from there towards strategic accommodation.
Instead they chose to escalate to destroy the rising Iranian power.
The nuclear file, the sanctions, and the war in Syria were all attempts to avoid the strategic necessity of settling with Iran.
The results of the past 7 years of effort by Axis Powers in fact remains clear – strategic emergence of something that did not exist before – the Shia Crescent and its enhancements an entrenchments.
Yes, I know, Naval Blockade … which per Mr. Hack’s assessment – with which I agree – will result in US occupying swaths of Southern Iran for decades – waging a holding pattern against Iranian forces.
Mr. Obama and Mr. Bush before him spread this bed – let them sleep in it; Iran and the Shia are lost to the Axis Powers,
Gareth Porter knocks off David Albright…
Leading Alarmist on Iran Ignored What He Knew Was True
http://truth-out.org/news/item/24169-leading-alarmist-on-iran-ignored-what-he-knew-was-true
All:
Ambassador Bhadrakumar on Mr. Obama’s Middle East Policy:
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/06/07/obamas-middle-eastern-policies-run-aground/
This (below) is the position of the officialdom. Perhaps it is simply for public consumption. Perhaps not! If not, does this sound like a recipe for compromise and temporary coexistence? To me, it sounds like the call to surrender.
“We haven’t yet seen the kind of realism on the Iranian side that we need to see or seen them make some of the tough choices we’re going to have to see,” the official said.
“We’re at a critical moment” in the negotiations, the official added.
“Western officials say that Iran insists on maintaining an excessive uranium enrichment capability”
This special one for Don Bacon and incidentally for Jay
Sharyl Attkisson, ex-reporter for CBS and CNN, testimony explaining why she left, about MSM propaganda and western system of (cognitive) dominance and how it works. Don Bacon, you know the so called ridiculous claim about the US freedom of speech…
And incidentally, for Jay, for it shows the power of money and political spinning and how it really works. Just in case that it is not obvious enough. And it shows the US not being a democracy. But a plutocracy.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1yiuex_sharyl-attkisson-ex-journaliste-a-cbs-explique-son-depart-de-la-chaine-et-parle-des-medias-de-masse_news?start=225
Jay says:
June 7, 2014 at 11:28 am
“This (below) is the position of the officialdom. Perhaps it is simply for public consumption. Perhaps not! If not, does this sound like a recipe for compromise and temporary coexistence? To me, it sounds like the call to surrender.”
There is no real means to know what it is worth.
That is a negotiation.
Each party is playing hard ball.
مرده شده در خرداد :
http://tejarat.donya-e-eqtesad.com/fa/packagestories/details?service=economy&story=ed647c45-b48f-42bc-8af8-84e80d0b53b5
دشواریهای کارآفرینی در ایران
ثروت، بلای جان
فکر میکنید اگر بیل گیتس در ایران متولد شده بود، او مبدل به یک کارآفرین میشد؟ آیا او میتوانست یکی از ثروتمندترین افراد جهان شود؟
http://tejarat.donya-e-eqtesad.com/fa/packagestories/details?service=economy&story=7a6af3d6-d980-4207-9a6e-4cbd5b9eb28d
ا اغلب کارآفرینانی که در ایران به دنبال رانت دولتی بودند چه درست چه غلط وقتی از ایران خارج شدند در فضایی که دیگر رانت هم وجود نداشت، موفق بودهاند. خسروشاهیها، ارجمندها، لاجوردیها، عمید حضورها و حتی تجار خردهپا که رفتند آنجا موفق بودند. مثلاً آقای خسروشاهی چگونه پس از ۱۰ سال فعالیت در کانادا، توانسته است بزرگترین خردهفروشی الکترونیکی را در این کشور ایجاد کند؟ در کشوری که مزاحمت اتحادیههای کارگری زبانزد است. غیر از قدرت و روحیه کارآفرینی است؟
http://tejarat.donya-e-eqtesad.com/fa/packagestories/details?service=economy&story=950eca43-a8bf-4b10-b2ce-bf7731ccc87b
fyi says:
June 7, 2014 at 10:13 am
Interesting. But evidence points to coming of an American policy of empowering Taliban in Afghanistan in order to create troubles for Iran, Russia and China, already the anti-shia elements are out. Another Syria but this time on Iran’s border.
Smith says:
June 7, 2014 at 12:53 pm
It all goes back to those pious Muslims that through their actions and inactions destroyed the Safavid State.
Such people as the King, the Scholar, the Rebel, the Chieftain, were almost certainly devoted Muslims whose Muslim piety would meet the approval by a brick-layer in contemporary Iran.
They likely beat their chests for Ali Asghar, Imam Hussein and his Family and his Entourgae’s sufferings and pain.
Yet the fact remains that these men’s actions created thousands of Ali Asghars in Afghanistan over the centuries. And yet within Muslim Tradition, no sin can be attributed to them.
Millions of Shia have suffered in Afghanistan because of them for 400 years because of these pious Muslims.
Smith says:
June 7, 2014 at 12:29 pm
You are underestimating the envy that afflicts so many people in so many other countries; South America used to be very similar; as well as Spain.
But I agree with you, the state has to encourage this actively.
Smith,
If you think Obama actually seeks to “empower the Taleban” in Afghanistan, you are wildly mistaken. Rubbish.
fyi,
You seem unaware that the UK and the US are supporting the Shia-controlled central government of Iraq, and you seem unaware the UK and the US are deeply concerned about Sunni efforts to weaken the Iraqi central government. Actually, I know you are aware of these facts but you ignore them to push your theory of a “Shia Crescent” – – a neocon notion!
James Canning says:
June 7, 2014 at 1:32 pm
And pray tell me how can US-UK be supporting the Shia Government of Iraq while at the same time trying to undermine her strategic depth – namely the Shia Islamic Republic of Iran?
Or put another way, it is inconceivable for me to understand how Axis Powers support for Sunni Extremists in the Levant – against Lebanon and Syria – may be construed as support for the Shia Government of Iraq.
The most charitable thing you can say is that whatever policy Axis Powers think they are pursuing is stark raving mad.
James Canning says:
June 7, 2014 at 1:27 pm
I think a deal has been made between US on one side and Taliban & Pakistan on the other.
The Shia in Afghanistan were not party to that deal and they will likely suffer its consequences – as they have been for centuries since they lost their homeland, i.e. the Safavid state.
Their best course of action is to agitate in Tehran, in Qum, and in Najaf for active support by the Iranian state.
fyi,
Obama is trying to end the US involvement in the civil war/insurgency in Afghanistan. He is not trying to make a deal in order to injure Iran, or to injure China, or to injure Russia. As claimed by Smith.
Qatar has been trying to foster a deal for years now.
fyi,
Some very powerful Sunnis are fed up with Hezbollah in Lebanon. I think they saw an opening to take out the Syrian government, and set up a potential effort to crush Hezbollah if Hezbollah refused to make a reasonable deal for how to move forward in Lebanon.
The US and Uk support the central government of Iraq. And they would have happy to have good relations with Iran, if Iran reins in its nuclear programme.
Much of the Israel lobby, of course, does not want good relations between Iran and the US and UK.
James Canning says:
June 7, 2014 at 5:03 pm
The days of good relations with Iran as potential possibility are gone – long gone – and we will not see it in our life times.
Iran is inevitably going to be aligned with Russia and China for many many decades; all a consequence of the attempt by Axis Powers to crush Iran, and by implication, the Shia.
British academic, author and anti-war activist, professor Dr. James B. Thring, during a recent interview with Iran’s Press TV, said: “A state to be lawful has to define its borders and if the Israelis insist on continuing to expand into Palestine they obviously haven’t got defined borders and therefore they are not technically a legal state.”
Dr. James Thring is the Director of the Ministry of Peace, a pressure group that campaigns against Zionist warmongering and builds bridges with all groups and individuals who are against the fighting of wars for the benefit of Israel. He makes frequent appearances on TV and Radio – often much to the chagrin of TV and Radio presenters! Listen to a speech (video below) Thring delivered at the London Forum in November 2013 claiming that 9/11 was committed by the US government with the help of Israeli intelligence agencies.
James Thring is author of 2006 book, ‘Peace with Iran: The Case for Maintaining Peaceful Relations with the Islamic Republic’. The book exposes Zionist lies about the Islamic Republic and Palestine.
http://rehmat1.com/2014/06/08/uk-author-israel-is-an-illegal-state/
Rice: US Offers ‘Lethal and Non-Lethal’ Aid to Syrian Rebels
US Ramping Up Involvement in Civil War
http://news.antiwar.com/2014/06/06/rice-us-offers-lethal-and-non-lethal-aid-to-syrian-rebels/
Still trying to get that war started…
Hillary Clinton: I Wanted to Arm Syrian Rebels, But Obama Refused
Sought US Involvement in Civil War From the Start
http://news.antiwar.com/2014/06/06/hillary-clinton-i-wanted-to-arm-syrian-rebels-but-obama-refused/
So even if Obama doesn’t start the Syria war, we can count on Hillary…
Richard steven hack
June 7, 2014 at 11:24 pm
That person get crazier by every day and apparently shes doing everything to get the votes and money from aipac.
FYI is right
James Canning is obviously writing only to sway the dialog toward a predetermined viewpoint. I am not sure this sort of thing is effecting but he/them keep typing away under this name.
Let it be clear:
1-Iran insisted that Afganistan be ruled democratically in Germany. That’s even according to the Leverettes who were involved in those negotiation. Western countries wanted the former king to return, and he even did return briefly with the support of the West.
2-Iraq was designed to become a larger version of Lebanon. The 2006 elections were going to be postponed indefinitely by the Bush administration supposedly for lack of security. It was Grand Aya. Sistani, backed by Iran, who told the Bush administration “either the elections goes as planned or we join the insurgency.”
US pull out is simply a reflection of these failed policies and a defeat. A defeat that was unnecessary and is now leaving the world in an uncertain future and one that will be Balkanized as FYI says. Iran will not sell its future based on assumptions. Iran who has historically been more pro-western, has the experience of the coup of 1906, the coup of 1953, the Shah, western supplied chemical weapons and 34 years of insane sanctions which have not worked. Iran is likely to pursue a nuclear deal but remain very much at arm’s length from the West.
The nuclear deal simply represent’s US’s return to the negotiating table and as relations with Russia deteriorate, Western powers become more desperate to cut a deal with Iran. Syria firmly in Iran’s orbit, the best solution for the US is exactly what the Leverettes prescribe.
We are all witnessing the consequences of US foreign policy and America’s decline. And we will all be affected by it as the economy continues to tag along, the deficit remains unresolved and the only thing that is booming in America is poverty all around us. That reality has not sunk in. And no matter how many paid operatives try to sweet talk a better picture on the net, it does not change the reality we are sharing.
There are two interesting developments:
1-Egypt is in the play. It is unstable and Al-Sisi’s days are numbered. Such idiotic ruler, a throw back to the 20th century, backed by the West won’t survive the 21st century. It also reflects the backwardness of western vision of where they would like to keep the mid-east.
2-Russia can actually affect Europe’s loyalty toward the US and alter the alliance. It will take time but it has begun.
Once again, what the Leverettes prescribe is probably the best course for our foreign policy.
I just hope we are not slowly marching toward a major conflict.
Did everyone notice the irony of two meaningless elections in ME occurring at almost the time, but our media only called Assad’s election fraud. They only had minor questions about whether Al-sisi’s image had been affected by the low turn out.
Japan underreports 80 nuclear bombs-worth of plutonium to IAEA
http://rt.com/news/164504-japan-nuclear-ieae-reports/
Advice for Messrs. Burns and Sullivan
===================================
Let’s face it. It’s make (a deal) or break (contacts) time folks. Extending the negotiations for another six months is not on the cards, because, while it will do nothing to narrow the gaps, it will provide another six months for naysayers.
Jeffery Lewis, the cheer leader for Saudi nuclear proliferation, has a piece up at Foreign Policy correctly pointing out Einhorn’s “break out” formula is nonsense. If you want to convince yourself that Iran will cheat, then Jeff echos other experts who say using monitored Natanz and Fordow, or any other declared facility for a break out is the most implausible scenario. Potential undeclared sites are the only avenue for a “sneak out.” And, hence, how much of declared infrastructure becomes part of the deal is a completely insignificant ‘assurance’ compared to how extensive verification, and monitoring procedures are agreed to. And ultimately what that has to mean is that you get to know Iranian scientists, engineers, institutes and manufacturing fabs, up close and personal. Go to each others confreres and expositions, collaborate on research, financing, and investments, etc. That is the only way you know nothing underhand is going on.
Non of this will happen unless folks are ordered to stand down and cease anti-Iran operations as clear preliminary signal that the US is interested in rapprochement.
Some of your underlings have reduced the negotiations to haggling over who should lose how much face, e.g. wouldn’t it be nice if Iran ‘confessed’ to weapons research which she has not done. Dear Messrs. Burns and Sullivan, you are skating on very thin ice. Zarif will remind you how easily you have been able to claim and then unclaim Iraqi WMD, evoke R2P because Daffi MIGHT bomb Benghazi but cheer as the Chocolate King ACTUALLY bombs Luhansk, etc. Zarif will ask you to unmanufacture your manufactured crisis and rely on your well-oiled narrative machine to manage the post-truth situation. You don’t need Iran’s help to save face.
If I were you I would not press Iran on ‘realignment.’ A Neither-East-nor-West stance is how Iran can best contribute to regional stability and not exacerbate your idiot rivalry with Russia and China.
Hope this helps.
BiBiJon says:
June 8, 2014 at 7:09 am
Good advice! Yet, I doubt they will heed this advice. The state of totalitarianism in the West, and disregard for rights and obligations, is at a stage that is beyond comprehension. The once-resurgent bastion of freedom and philosophical thought has been reduced to what can be best described by the headline of the commentary this morning by Tony Gosling:
“Rewriting history at George Orwell’s ‘Ministry Of Truth’”
In its first paragraph, he writes:
“The only new rights on offer in the West today seem to be the sort of rights you could well do without.”
On offer, is the following evidence regarding respect for human rights and the rule of law, courtesy of our Brit friends!
“Now Britain has been stunned this week by yet another stride a morally bereft Westminster has taken towards totalitarianism. In a process begun by Bilderberg steering group member Kenneth Clarke while he was Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, the Justice and Security Act through “closed material procedures” has opened the way for criminal trials not just to be heard in secret, with no reporting of the trial allowed, but the mere fact of reporting that charges have been brought or that a case is planned has become an imprisoning offense.”
WMD, R2P, IAEA, ICJ, UN… these are merely tools in the arsenal of the ‘Ministry of Truth’
The obviously ridiculous statement by “Western officials” that “… Iran insists on maintaining an excessive uranium enrichment capability” means: a) this upcoming meeting is just “theater”, b) “Iran will relent”, c) “Western officials are out of touch with reality”, or d) “they will listen to your advice”!
I hope the answer is d), but I’m afraid this will not be the case.
All:
Commentary by Mr. Buchanan:
http://original.antiwar.com/buchanan/2014/05/29/is-obama-blundering-into-a-syrian-quagmire/
We read:
“…we are now extending and broadening a Syrian war that has left 150,000 dead. And we have become de facto allies of both the al-Qaida-linked Al Nusra Front and the more extreme Islamic State of Iraq and Syria..”
fyi,
Obama has a better chance of avoiding getting sucked into the civil war in Syria, if a deal between P5+1 and Iran is achieved or seems achievable. But you do not want a deal, and you seem to ignore how no deal pressures Obama to intervene directly in Syia.
Pouya,
Is any serious Western commentator claiming the election in Egypt was anything more than a simple “rubber-stamp” exercise?
Pouya,
The neocons who conspired to set up the idiotic US invasion of Iraq argued it would create a rich ally of the US and Israel. Some of the neocons actually believed this nonsense.
Iraq forced Obama to pull all US troops out. Obama’s enemies in the US claim this was a “defeat” for the US. You agree with Obama’s enemies?
I was glad all US troops were forced to withddraw from Iraq. Your point of view?
Pouya,
You seem to be one of those who argue Russia and China only pretend to want to ensure Iran limits its nuclear programme. I think you are wildly mistaken on this point.
fyi,
Your apparent belief the US “wants to crush the Shia” is nonsense. Very few Americans are even aware of the existence of a difference bwetween Shia Islaam and Sunni Islam. George W. Bush and Condoleezza Rice were in that group of ignorant Americans, in early 2001.
RS Hack,
Hillary Clinton helped convince Obama to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on the quagmire in Afghanistan. And she argued for intervention in Libya. And for intervention in Syria. Etc etc.
One of few areas she was right, was in wanting to stop the growth of the illegal colonies of Jews in the West Bank.
fyi,
Your belief there is no chance of normal relations between Iran and the UK and the US is simply quite wrong. In my judgment.
Bibi Netanyahu has been boasting of late that five years ago in Washington he was threatened “if Israel build one more brick” in the occupied West Bank. Bibi went ahead with thousands of houses and flats for illegal Jews to settle in, in the occupied West Bank.
Did anyone notice that during the Pope’s recent visit to Israel/Palestine, there was scarceply a peep from The New York Times on the plight of the Christians in occupied Palestine? Israel’s occupation has been catastrophic for the Christian community. Why would the NYT choose to suppress this fact? Not hard to guess.
In the NYT today, there appears a book review. Subject of book is Jimmy Carter, who has worked for many decades in effort to achieve justice for the Palestinians. No mention of this effort in the book review.
Now west have stopped South-Stream (Russian pipeline).
One wonder where west are supposed to get its gas if not from Russia?
James Canning says:
June 8, 2014 at 1:45 pm
The only people Western people care about outside of the Axis Powers is Jews and Israel.
On that altar they have sacrificed so much for so long that the latest offering, the Middle Eastern Christians – from Pakistan to the Mediterranean Sea, amounts to nothing at all.
As for good relations between US-EU and Iran; that is entirely dependent on US-EU accepting the strategic autonomy of Iran as a threshold nuclear weapon state.
They won’t and that is the end of that possibility; do you for a moment think that the Axis Powers’ religious commitment to the Fantasy project of Jews in Palestine is going to end within the next few decades?
These are the powers that got Japan to provoke China in South China Sear, forced Turkey to help destroy Syria, released the mass-murderer of Shia last week, and have no qualms about working with their mortal enemies to help wound Iran.
fyi says:
June 8, 2014 at 3:36 pm
James seems to have difficulty understanding examples in China, Turkey,…
As I posted above, in James backyard, the “Ministry of Truth” can imprison British citizens for the mere act of reporting!
Now, James is asking us to believe that an apparatus in the UK having no regard for her own citizens will care about friendly relations with Iran!
James Canning says:
June 8, 2014 at 1:03 pm
Shia are those that are fighting Israel and resisting the hare-brained schema of Axis Powers and their local counts.
Shia must be crushed for Axis Powers and their local allies to succeed; this is a zero sum game and every one knows that.
The only thing is, Iranians, by-and-large, have had a more tolerant view towards other religious sects – that is now being eroded as Shia are murdered everywhere in the Muslim world – some by US allies.
If Axis Powers planners are ignorant of the view point and concerns of the Shia – they are then clearly ill-suited for formulating policy in the Middle East.
Likely, however, this is willful ignorance; the Protestant Christians with their claim to be able to have a personal relationship with God, are oblivious to the voices of other men since they are too absorbed in their personal conversation with God.
And for this reason they will continue to fail across the board as their resources cannot cover this willful ignorance any longer.
God Willing.
fyi,
The US, UK, Germany have no need whatever to “crush” Hezbollah in Lebanon. I take it you concede some very powerful Sunnis are indeed fed up with Hezbollah and would welcome an attack on it.
The US, UK and Germany are trying to help the Shia-controlled Iraqi central government.
Hezbollah has very little interest in fighting Israel, unless Israel launches another attack.
Jay,
Go ahead and assume you know the thinking of the foreign policy insiders in Whitehall. Even if you do not. Britain and the UK would prefer normal relations with Iran. Full stop. Provided Iran limits its nuclear programme. Full stop.
James Canning says:
June 8, 2014 at 3:55 pm
“The US, UK and Germany are trying to help the Shia-controlled Iraqi central government” is not a true statement”; yes, they are – by trying to crush Iran, the only local state that supports the Iraqi government.
Axis Power: “We are raping to preserve Chastity!”
What rubbish…
fyi,
American Jews are fabulously rich and powerful now, and this gives them great influence. But many American Jews in fact think the US is scr*wing the Palestinians and they are not especially keen that this continue.
fyi,
You are dea wrong yet again. Iran reins in its nuclear programme and Iran will be much richer and much stronger, and much better able to help the iraqi government.
Your delusion Iran can build nukes is simply that: a delusion.
Jay,
Would you argue China has a freer press, and the Chinese more freedom of expression, than obtains in the UK?
James Canning says:
June 8, 2014 at 4:01 pm
And I say it very plainly; unless the Axis Powers accept all Iranian nuclear projects within NPT there will be no progress.
And I say it very plainly again:
Axis Powers have no alternative except strategic recognition of the Iranian nuclear status as a threshold weapon state – 2 weeks or 2 months are journalistic theatrics.
Their choice.
fyi says:
June 8, 2014 at 3:36 pm
Does France care about the Maronites?
Nasser,
Yes, France is very much concerned about Maronite Christians. This has been true for centuries.
fyi,
You appear to include China and Russia among your “Axis Powers”. Both countries want Iran’s nuclear programme “reined in”.
fyi says:
June 8, 2014 at 4:07 pm
“Axis Powers have no alternative except strategic recognition of the Iranian nuclear status as a threshold weapon state – 2 weeks or 2 months are journalistic theatrics.”
Exactly factual, and well said
James Canning says:
June 8, 2014 at 4:58 pm
Judging from their Syria policy I don’t think that is true any longer. I think they pretty much regard all Middle Easterners except Israelis to be savages better off dead.
James Canning says:
June 8, 2014 at 4:03 pm
It is apt that you compare UK and China!
The West’s choices are precisely stated by fyi. The nonsense must stop.
To understand better the sickness that afflicts the West’s policy, internally and internationally, read the interview with Giroux.
The Specter of Authoritarianism and the Future of the Left: An Interview With
Henry A. Giroux
Here is a quote for an appetizer:
“Life is now a war zone and as such the number of people considered disposable has grown exponentially.”
fyi says:
June 7, 2014 at 1:12 pm
That is very much unfortunate. And yet even more unfortunate is the fact that such questions are not tolerated. More Shia families just got killed today after having paid the utmost of their respects to the one country they consider their protector in the world: http://www.dawn.com/news/1111403/at-least-22-people-killed-in-suicide-attack-near-pak-iran-border
Let’s see if the “King, the Scholar, the Rebel, the Chieftain ” and may I add the Iranian populace at large have learned their lessons with regard to their individual obligation to themselves, each other and their coreligionists the world over (in addition to God’s). Unfortunately as you had said, we have never had scholars like Thomas Aquinas who could have raised us above the mentality of a brick layer.
By the way, in addition to the release of mass murderers of Shias (a huge propaganda boost to Taleban), other things have been going on which will become more clear in coming days. TTP a pressure group under American command (per Pakistan military establishment claims), that was in control of vast areas of Pakistani northwest in opposition to Pakistani military, has now been dissolved almost in matter of days. Pakistani gunship helicopters have been busy bombing Afghan sanctuary of TTP and the pro-Pakistani Taleban launching attacks on TTP deep in Afghanistan under air cover provided by Pakistan army. These things could not have been possible without an American understanding with Pakistan and Taleban on a strategic level. Technically and legally Afghan aerospace is completely under American control (when few years back a small Iranian drone flew just a few miles into Iraqi airspace, Americans shot it down, fast and furious style). The Pakistani gunship helicopters bombing Afghan areas with impunity, alongside American silence over the matter, is a very strong sign. Things might change on Iran’s eastern borders. Americans will not leave Afghanistan to Iran allied northern alliance, the same way they left Iraq to Iranian allies. It seems they have reached a deal with Taleban in this regard with the focus being the Shias and Iran. (Interestingly, Russia also after 6 decades is offering Pakistan a kind of strategic realignment).
fyi says:
June 7, 2014 at 1:16 pm
Yes the envy. They have given nothing to the world. Only have taken from it.
Nasser says:
June 8, 2014 at 4:19 pm
Yes, but not at price of Israel.
James Canning says:
June 8, 2014 at 4:59 pm
What exactly will Russia or China do in case of an attack by US – limited or un-limited – on Iran?
Will they sanction the United States?
Will Russians extent strategic protection to Iran?
What will Russia or China do if Tehran or Isphahan or Shiraz or Tabriz or Mashahad are attacked by nuclear weapons?
Will they attack the perpetrators with their own nuclear weapons?
It seems clear to me that the answer to all these questions are resounding “Nothing” and “No”.
Therefore, I submit to you that Iranian leaders are best advised not to care one whit what Russian and Chinese leader wish Iran to do; Iran without the ability to quickly manufacture nuclear weapons will not exist for long as a coherent unitary state.
Axis Powers, Russia, and China are, in effect, ordering Iran to disarm to be destroyed later at US convene ice or someone else’s convenience.
That is not going to happen.
Smith says:
June 8, 2014 at 6:17 pm
The Qajar Kings were quite pious Muslims – they built the Takye Dowlat during 1865-1867 for the purposes of the Ta’aziyah enactements and the King, the Courtiers, and the King’s Ladies all shed tears at the right occasions for Imam Hussein and his Esteemed Family and Companions.
Yet, these pious men and women, for a variety or reasons, failed to stop the decline of the Iranian state.
But, I am sure, they were very excellent Muslims and they outwardly conformed to the enforced piety of the thugs of Islamic Republic moral police.
Which basically means, like the late Shah Sultan Hussein, it is preferable in certain circles in Iran to be piteous rather then impious – per the brick-layer’s view – than to be a potent political figure of Islam.
When those fool Taliban were destroying what was left of the Bamiyan Budha statues, other Afghans were trekking to Iran due to draught. I recall reading this farmer w
hose 3 young sons froze to death in a mountain pass during the night.
Had Iran has more capable kings – not men like the late Shah Sultan Hussein or the late Naser al Din Shah – many people who died of starvation, disease and violence in Afghanistan would have been able to live longer and better.
“Bad” Muslims such as the late Shah Ismail, the late Shah Tahmasb, the late Shah Abbas – all wine-drinking men – saved more Muslims than those pious kings – no doubt.
In fact, the major criticism levied at the Qajar Kings and dynasty was their weakness and inability to maintain the coherence and unitarily of the state as you well know.
That pattern only ended with the World War I and the dissolution of the Russian Empire. The pattern can resume any time, again – the first attempt at its resumption (nibbling at Iranian state and territory) was during the 1980-1988 War initiated by Iraq. The second attempt was the deliberate provocation of ISI and Taliban against Iranian Consulate in Mazar-e-Sharif. More such things are in the works, no doubt and a nuclear-armed Iran is the only alternative.
Iranians have to make a choice – Pharisee Piety or Power – or else develop a governing theory of Pious Power that is applicable to the modern times. Publishing the Letter to Malek Ashtar does not a political theory make.
fyi,
I am confident neither Russia nor China sees any chance of Iran’s being attacked by nukes. ZERO chance, as a practical matter. (Barring a “loose nuke” originating in Pakistan in context of a collapse of authority in that country.)
Jay,
I did not compare the UK to China. I asked you if you regarded China as having a greater level of press freedom etc than Britain. You dodged the question, as usual.
James Canning says:
June 8, 2014 at 7:28 pm
I am sleeping better knowing that they do.
I will tell that to my father too – he is the one who expects a nuclear attack against Iran.
I suppose they see also zero chance of a nuclear attack against UK.
Wonder why UK maintains her nuclear arsenal then?
fyi says:
June 8, 2014 at 7:10 pm
As always I have to keep thanking you for enlightening us on these matters or else we are going to remain ignorant. You are well aware of my endorsement of your idea that Iran must be a nuclear armed state without which Iran’s future is going to be very dark and scary. As regard to “the Letter to Malek Ashtar”, please do not read much into it. This is an example often raised by hypocrites and cargo cult in order to suppress their opponents in an argument by emotional appeal and blackmail. They have never read and understood those letters: http://khordadnews.ir/news/64159
حضرت علی (ع) که الگوی ما در حکومت کردن است، در نامههایی که برای استانداران و فرماندارانش مینوشت بر روی چه چیزی حساس بود و انگشت مینهاد؟ حضرت نسبت به ثروتهای عمومی جامعه حساس بود تا مبادا به یغما بروند و ناعادلانه بین ارباب قدرت تقسیم شوند. حضرت در هیچ یک از نامههایش به فرماندارانش ننوشته است که چرا این یکی نماز نمیخواند و آن یکی بیحجاب است؟ بروید آن نامهها را بخوانید تا ببینید چنین بوده است یا نه.
They wasted ONE BIG trillion dollars on useless things and gave away 120 billion dollars more to pork eating, wine gobbling and whore fvcking foreign bankers and then they have the audacity to talk about “the Letter to Malek Ashtar”. Can anything be more hypocritical than this? Heads should have rolled only on the account of why those 120 billion dollars had not been spent in a good cause (promoting entrepreneurship by importing technology and capital goods for instance) or converted to gold an flown into Iran’s equivalent of Fort Knox.
I get very sad when you raise these issues, specially since the day you raised the matter of Thomas Aquinas. It made me extremely sad that in all these 1000 years, we did not have even one man even quarter his worth. All these 1.5 billion supposed Muslims breathing and not even a single scholar of note among them. Not even one.
fyi says:
June 8, 2014 at 7:10 pm
By the way I just remembered something similar to those letters argument. The useless quote from Godel, a man who despite his mathematical genius did not know anything about life. A man who died a mad man on a hospital bed of extreme OCD, refusing to eat food for fear of contamination by poison and bacteria.
Stupid people. These people live a useless life. Few years, a “factoid” was going around that Einstein had become a Shia and that Armstrong had become Muslim after coming back from the moon. Idiots. They think that by using these kind of tricks, they can prove themselves to be better and more “pious”.
By the way I present here a quote from Einstein, a man who actually knew life much more than Godel:
“If there is any religion that could respond to the needs of modern science, it would be Buddhism.”
“The religion of the future will be a cosmic religion. It should transcend a personal God and avoid dogmas and theology. Covering both the natural and the spiritual, it should be based on a religious sense arising from the experience of all things, natural and spiritual, as a meaningful unity. Buddhism answers this description.”
So much so for depending on Western scientists to promote one’s eastern religion. But then cargo cult is their name.
fyi,
Surely the only long term solution to Afghanistan’s messy conflicts is a partition of some sort. Iran should have encouraged her ethnic brethren and coreligionists to agitate for partition and also should have formally demanded Herat back. Iran’s effort to placate her Eastern foes have been about as effective as seeking accommodation with Saudi Arabia. In fact Iran foreign policy is way too passive and reactive and almost all her gains except maybe Lebanon can be attributed to mistakes made by Iran’s enemies and not because of particular brilliance from Iran’s part.
Latest from The Saker. Quite uncharacteristic of him, just goes to show that Western Powers have seriously overplayed their hand and some people have had enough.
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/06/saker-rant-please-tell-me-my-worst.html
Nasser says:
June 8, 2014 at 8:49 pm
It is not the same as Saudi Arabia. Pakistan could have been a close friend of Iran. But as is the case with all poor friends, you have to spend on them or they will look elsewhere. Unfortunately Iranian policy makers were happy to donate 120 billion dollars to the most corrupt bankers in milky way galaxy than to build the whole length of a pipeline and offer five years of half priced gas. And/Or build two 5000 MW electrical transmission lines into Pakistan and therefore easing their hot summers. I mean it is a nuclear armed country on your border and has two hundred million hungry people with gas and electricity shortages, what do you expect?
Not every one in Pakistan is an enemy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6o8QtId2Q0#t=2167
Therefore, efforts must be made to stop Pakistan to become an enemy of Iran. Poverty is forcing Pakistan do things which probably would not do if it was not pathetically poor.
On the video in my last comment go to 37:00 and watch onwards.
Desperation, poverty, perpetual machine, cargo cult culture and lots of mouth to feed: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/05/world/asia/boast-of-water-run-car-thrills-pakistan.html?_r=0&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1402287247-t/1Q+MoyYIRYb7Cb/GUKaw
Preposterous.
Image analysis of science, faith, religion and perpetual machine. Note that the power of “faith” is being paraded as having the capability to run the car on water while the infidels need petrol (gasoline) to run theirs: http://vcdfolio.com/image-analysis-by-rehman-raza-vcd-3rd-year-2012-13/
Egypt’s post-election scorecard: losers and winners http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/06/egypt-sisi-post-election-scorecard.html
From VOA but still worthy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdsM6Zq-gOY
And finally: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONd_YJyzGl4
Smith,
I didn’t actually have Pakistan in mind when I said “enemies to the East.” I was rather thinking of the Taliban and many other sunni Pashtuns who have a manic hatred of Iran. Iran’s policy towards them, when not placating them, has been it seems one of non policy; ignore them and hope they go away. With or without Pakistan, Iran should be able to protect its friends in Afghanistan.
As for Pakistan, of course I agree with you that Pakistan has the potential to either be a great friend or a dangerous enemy of Iran. As such I too have argued that instead of selling its oil for water melons and Chinese toys Iran should have engaged in some “people power” (to quote your phrase) in Pakistan by providing some meaningful energy assistance. I can’t think of anything else short of Iran itself going nuclear that a true partnership with Pakistan would so revolutionize Iran’s security situation. Sadly, as with Iran’s economy per out previous discussion, Iran’s central planners are horribly inept if not downright corrupt and can’t take bold strategic decisions and adequately plan for the future.
Einstein, “a man who knew life”, loved and admired Godel. He is known to have said, on many occasions, that his reason for showing up to IAS was to have the pleasure of being able to walk with his friend Godel. Einstein viewed Godel’s contributions as “colossal”. Many of giants of science and philosophy died in regrettable conditions. I see no purpose in soiling their name or degrading them for their illness.
Smith says:
June 9, 2014 at 12:19 am
I saw something similar in Western Africa; this fellow claimed to be able to trouble-shoot and fix your personal computer through his telepathic abilities from a distance.
Water is essentially ash.
Nasser says:
June 8, 2014 at 8:49 pm
I think the most feasible path forward is to revert back to the Northern Alliance model if the central government in Kabul is rendered incapacitated and Taliban make a come back.
The real problem is this yearning for living in a simpler time – an imaginary time – that is tyrannically controls the minds of so many Muslims.
One wonders what the late Khawjeh Nizam al Mulk would have made of the Taliban and their ilk in Pakistan or among the Arabs.
Or their admirers in contemporary Iran…
Arabs may be excused for not caring about the Seljuks and their history, Iranians and Turks cannot be; refusing to study that period when yet another Muslim Universal Empire collapsed – in spite of the vigour of its culture and its military.
Smith says:
June 8, 2014 at 7:58 pm
I must admit that I disagree with the late Albert Einstein.
I think like so many natural scientists before him and after him, he was out of his depth when commenting on Religion as well as Philosophy.
There is no coherent philosophy of empirical sciences that encompasses both physical and life sciences.
And there is not common philosophical system – to my knowledge – that would or could include Mathematical and Empirical Sciences as well.
In the absence of coherent scientific and mathematical philosophies, judgments about which religion would or could fit the needs (whatever the word “need” could mean in this context) cannot be made – in my opinion.
I am not saying that a systematic & coherent philosophy of science is impossible to construct – only that such a construction – to my knowledge – does not exist.
What is going on with strategic alliances, Russia and Qatar, Iran and Turkey, all the the expense of the destruction of Syria. Anyone has a clue?
Iranian president Sheikh Rouhani met Turkish prime minister Erdogan in Ankara on Monday. They discussed Syrian and other regional issues in addition to boost Iran-Turkey trade which reached $15 billion last year.
Professor Vali Reza Nasr, the “Iranian expert” at the powerful Israel lobby, the ‘Council on Foreign Relations (CFR‘ believes that a closer relations between Rouhani and Erdogan would be good for Israel as it would erode Tehran’s support for Hizbullah, Hamas and Syria.
http://rehmat1.com/2014/06/09/iranian-president-arrives-in-turkey/
Nasser says:
June 9, 2014 at 2:56 am
Thank you for that. You are completely right that not much effort has been made to create influence among the Pashtuns. When I had advised a cargo cult here to pack up a bag and go to Parachinar, he outright refused and started ridiculing himself like a clown since there is no rent money to be made there. The rent money is in Tehran and obviously the cargo cult can not leave its rent money behind.
“The effort to overthrow the Syrian government was and is closely related to Saudi fears Iran would bring war to the Gulf by failing to make a deal with the P5+1.”
So, let’s try this logic.
First, the overthrow of Syrian government would – by all account – weaken Iran, and would make war more likely.
Second, failing to make a deal with P5+1 would make war more likely.
Therefore, any way you look at it, James either knows something we are all oblivious to, or the Saudis tell him that they fear a war because they fear, FEAR.
Wash, rinse, dry. Repeat.
fyi says:
June 9, 2014 at 10:07 am
I agree. The point I was making is that one should not bring in an obscure quote from a western scientist to “prove” Shia religion. Shia religion does not need that. Otherwise there are even better quotes than that obscure quote that “prove” otherwise. Much like the water car situation, these cargo cults need the approval of a western scientist/science to prove themselves that they are right. The internet is brimming with “examples” of western science “proving” Islam and rumors such as Einstein having converted to Shiaism or other such similar things. This nonsense should be unacceptable.
Few weeks ago, Iranian government quietly announced that with continuing fall in Iran’s fertility rate, now Iran is officially tipped the balance and is now becoming an aging society. Usually this happens in societies who have accumulated alot of science and technology and wealth and infrastructure. In Iran it is happening without these. The youth of a nation is being wasted.
Hans says:
June 9, 2014 at 10:27 am
There is “strategic alliance” between Qatar and Russia or between Iran and Turkey. So I do not have a clue what you are saying.
As for Syria, to borrow from fyi, it was wounded to hurt Iran. Though one can not dismiss the stupidity of brick layers of their Sunnis either.
Sakineh,
Are you trying to claim in effect that an overthrow of the Syrian government would not injure Iran?
Sakineh,
I have said Iran probably can avoid war if it continues its current freeze on its nuclear programme. But it would mean most sanctions remain in place.
Nasser,
Do we know whether Iran has offered to put up the funds in advance, for gas pipeline to major Pakistani cities?
fyi,
If you want to continue to argue that Iran should build nukes asap and that Iran should present itself to the P5+1 as trying to buy time in order to get closer to possession of nukes, that is of course your right. A wise course of action? NO.
Interesting comments by Robert E. Hunter today at LogeLog.com : “US-Iran bilateral talks: on the edge of a nuclear deal?”
James Canning says:
June 9, 2014 at 11:52 am
The wise course of action would have been any of these:
1- Settle with Iran after 2007 NIE was leaked
2- Throw the book at Iraq once she started using chemical weapons
3- Settle with Iran in 1953 instead of economic blockade
James Canning says:
June 9, 2014 at 11:40 am
He is right; it was the depth of Axis Powers ignorance that they did not realize that loss of Syria to Iran was not a strategic blow but an inconvenience.
fyi,
How do you see this? http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=13930319000850
I mean does he realize that we first need to reinterpret the foundations of our religious culture and philosophy similar to what scholars like Thomas Aquinas had done? I mean if the outward compliance with Islam is the motor of progress in sciences then why the sciences were not progressing during Qajar?
fyi,
GW Bush in my view should have made deals with Iran and Syria in 2006 and pulled all US troops out of Iraq.
The warmonger occupying the vice presidency of the US made it difficult for Bush to make a deal with Iran in 2007.
Nasser says:
June 9, 2014 at 2:56 am
And perhaps more necessary than Pashtuns, I must add it is necessary to help Pakistan to ideologically and otherwise debunk and isolate the Deobandis. You it is the Deobandis who are killing the Shias, destroy everything and even kill the majority of Sunnis in Pakistan who are Brelvi. In effect the Deobandis of Pakistan are analogous to the Wahabis of Arab world. It is really a shame that Pakistan allowed the Deobandis to become so powerful since it was the Deobandis who were against the creation of Pakistan and even today denounced their “father of nation” Jinnah as an infidel (since he was an Ismaili Shia with is mother a Zoroastrian). Denouncing Jinnah is more dangerous for Pakistan than denouncing Attaturk in Turkey as Turks existed even before Attaturk but not Pakistan before Jinnah. Pakistanis have to realize that this particular subset of Deobanids bent on their crazy ideas is very dangerous for future of not only Iran but also Pakistan itself.
fyi,
Your statements would gain clarity if you dropped the nonsensical “Axis Powers” notion. You imply unity of purpose when there is nothing of the sort. And what countries are “Axis Powers”? P5+1? Nato? Japan?
Some of the powerful Sunnis who would like to see Hezbollah taken down a peg or two in Lebanon, may well have argued that taking out the Syrian government would badly injure Iran when this to my thinking is not true. A way to gain support, in other words.
Smith says:
June 9, 2014 at 1:47 pm
Yes, I have seen that.
He is dong what he can, from his position, to promote Reason and Empirical Knowledge.
And he tries to finesse the fact that so many men of science – specially in medicine – have had only contempt for Christianity and its God.
No amount of exhortations by a statesman can substitute for the inner dynamics of a culture & civilization.
The distinction made by the late Ibn Sina, the late Farabi, and the late Maimonides between Existence and Essence was not further developed by Muslims because Muslim polities did not produce thinkers to continue that line of argument.
It fell to the Christian Brethren to pickup those ideas and further develop them.
Indeed, from the time of the martyred Suhrewardi – almost 800 years ago- till now you cannot even count one Muslim philosopher per century.
This was not due to the machinations of the Western Powers, or Russia, or Mongol Invasion etc.
James Canning says:
June 9, 2014 at 2:28 pm
Axis Powers are NATO states.
Without the United States around whose power they orbit, they would not be able to exercise any geopolitical influence in the world. And the Barons know that; thus swallowing any and all hare-brained scheme coming out of US.
I see unity of purpose to crush Iran, I see it in the posture of Australia, the White Trash of Asia, vis-à-vis Iran, I see it Norway where Iran Ph.D. students who are studying engineering are being kicked out, the financial/economic war against Iran, the arming of Sunni extremists in Syria, the support for Israel in her multiple wars against Arabs and so on and so forth.
I see the unity of purpose in the Axis Powers provocations in Ukraine, in their destruction of Yugoslavia, and their telling Japan to provoke China in South China Sea.
James Canning says:
June 9, 2014 at 2:24 pm
As I said before, when you despise a country for over 60 years – 3 generations – because it caresses your ego to do so – you should not expect being able to have normal relations with that country any time soon.
Sergey Karaganov’s latest article. Almost the entire length of the piece is quotable and really does provide for very good analysis of the situation and how it came about:
http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/Europe-and-Russia-Preventing-a-New-Cold-War-16701
Shameless charlatans now want to trick Iran into another fraud like Eurodiff and take Iran’s money and arrest its technological development: http://armscontrol.org/act/2014_0708/Features/Agreeing-on-Limits-for-Irans-Centrifuge-Program-A-Two-Stage-Strategy
Note that these charlatans never talk about paying Iran damages upward of 500 billion dollars for stealing Iran’s share in Eurodiff enrichment plant and Rossing uranium mine. At any rate, Iran should eventually leave NPT a colonial treaty designed to keep certain nations as masters and the rest as whore-slaves.
Nasser,
That was a very nice article indeed. Thanks.
fyi says:
June 9, 2014 at 2:28 pm
Thanks. Don’t you think that he can initiate a state effort to investigate these matters? At least from a theoretical perspective for future generations, if not for practical implementation due to political reasons right now.
Another idiot: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/06/iran-culture-minister-likens-internet-fears-fax-machine.html
It is not like fax. It is like the printing press machine which had been declared haram for several centuries (while some printed books used to be smuggled into Iran in those times too).
The thing is, Iran should not repeat its experience with printing press machine. It must embrace the technology completely not what these imbeciles are advocating (allowing importation of printed books instead of smuggling). Iran must have its own facebook, twitter, youtube, email, search engine, large scale hosting etc etc etc. Russians and Chinese were smart enough to know that very early on. The only solution is to invest in creating the internal infrastructure and technology, otherwise depending on foreign service providers as these idiots are pushing Iran towards, is only going to expose Iran more to subversion, spying and fetneh.
Some time ago, I had advised that this is the way Iran has to go by internalizing all these services (and even offering them to the outside world). A cargo cult member here, assured us that Iran is developing these and “very soon” they will come online. I doubted the cargo cult. I even did a bit of searching and found out that the national budget for developing an email service was about one billion toman. I mean it was a joke, as with one billion toman you can not even rent a whoore house in Tehran for 3 months let alone develop email services for 75 million Iranians and millions of others outside of Iran.
Now after all this time, it is now clear that the cargo cult was lying. There was no such project. Today, even Iran’s president and foreign minister are officially using Twitter and facebook. Spending only 20 billion out of that 120 billion dollar that the cargo cult donated to the super corrupt foreign bankers could have made Iran into a global internet hub with its own secured services and pride. But then we have idiots.
fyi,
I doubt one in ten of my friends in Europe and America even dislikes Iran sharply.
US politicians are rewarded if they serve as stooges of Israel and bash Iran when opportunity presents itself.
Most people I talk to want normal relations between Iran and the EU and US.
fyi,
If you think thee US has encouraged Japan to confront China, you are dead wrong.
I am sure you are well aware Aipac and other extremist elements of the Israel lobby blocked Iran’s effort in the 1990s to restore normal relations with the US.
Your tendency to overlook the role of the Israel lobby distorts the accuracy of your comments.
خداوند پدر امثال مجید مجیدی را بیامرزد که در حال ساختن فیلمی است که رأفت حضرت محمد (ص) و اسلام را نشان دهد. باید دستش را هم بوسید.
http://khabaronline.ir/(X(1)S(xwiog4sm3yisfn5kk3jnktxy))/detail/358945/weblog/jafarian
Correction to the link in previous comment of mine:
http://goo.gl/M4Nb4l
James Canning says:
June 9, 2014 at 7:56 pm
You are ill-informed about Japan; they were told to do so and they did.
Why, you think they are a sovereign state; like Iran?
James Canning says:
June 9, 2014 at 7:53 pm
Just like Shoah inform Jews everywhere, the legacy of the actions of US, EU, Russia and China against Iran during the last 60 years inform the Iranian people.
This legacy would have persisted even in the best of times, now, I imagine, is quite baked in.
Smith says:
June 9, 2014 at 4:47 pm
I cannot say.
Last year he exhorted Iranian scholars to develop Islamic conceptions of freedom by studying the works of Western and Christian thinkers on the subject of freedom.
I hope someone listened to him and began such a study.
James Canning says:
June 9, 2014 at 7:56 pm
And I am telling you that you do not understand how Protestantism is in Love with Israel – and in US – has dragged Catholicism with it.
In effect, they have elected to wage war on behalf of Israel against Islam.
Why doesn’t UK, or Denmark, or Spain break diplomatic relations with Israel?
Why was not Sharon indicted for War Crimes by the International Court but Mr. Basheer was?
Why is Peres not behind bars?
James C.
In regards to Russia and China, I say even if there is a deal with the West Iran will always remain close to Russia and China. Iran will try to get the best deal it can, but I think Iran’s long term thinking is limited to that deal and won’t seek to become closer to West. I don’t think Iran trusts Russia or China any better but they understand that only the US and NATO have an eye to occupy Iran.
What of course everybody knows :
http://atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-02-090614.html
….Having methodically (and often scandalously) enriched themselves in the shadow of the public sector of the Iranian economy, or by virtue of political/bureaucratic positions they held (or still hold) in various stations in the government apparatus, these folks have by now lost all appetite they once had for radical economic measures required for economic self-reliance in order to resist or withstand the brunt of the brutal economic sanctions. Instead, they now seem eager to strike business and investment deals with their transnational class allies abroad.
More than any other social strata, President Hassan Rouhani and his administration represent the interests and aspirations of this rising capitalist-financier class in Iran. Representatives of this class of financial oligarchy wield economic and political power mainly through the highly influential Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture (ICCIMA).
Ideological and/or philosophical affinity between President Rouhani and the power-brokers residing within ICCIMA is reflected in the fact that, immediately upon his election, the president appointed the former head of the Chamber of Commerce Mohammad Nahavandian, a US-educated neoliberal economist and an advisor to former president Hashemi Rafsanjani, as his chief of staff.
It was through the Iran Chamber of Commerce that, in September 2013, an Iranian economic delegation accompanied President Rouhani to the United Nations in New York to negotiate potential business/investment deals with their American counterparts. The Iran Chamber of Commerce has also organized a number of economic delegations that have accompanied Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to Europe in pursuit of similar objectives….
Stupid french
France call on Iran to cut down centrifuges.
http://rt.com/news/line/2014-06-10/#63660
Did get another plug in for this informative website on C-Span’s Washington Journal on June 5th with questions about Syria and Al Queda for Richard Barrett who is from the UN and I believe the head of some investigative team on Syria and Al Qeada, My comment and question starts at 16:26. Anna Dayton Ohio. Always hope these efforts bring more pople to this site.
Last night on Chris Matthews Hardball Matthews claimed that Hillary Clinton had “recanted 100% on Iraq” “100%” he repeated. Total bs. I asked him at his fb page where and when did Clinton do so? Her yes vote on the 2002 Iraq war resolution was a very dealy political move on her part. But she of course did not die. But 6700 Americans have, thousands injured and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi people are dead. Matthews should be called out on this inaccurate and protective claim. He seems to be the Clinton’s new BFF. Disgusting…softball
Don’t miss http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/10/opinion/iran-nuclear-sanctions-parag-khanna/?hpt=hp_c5
Iran Meets US for Bilateral Talks, Proposes Extension of Negotiations
Pushes Six Month Extension of July 20 Deadline
http://news.antiwar.com/2014/06/09/iran-meets-us-for-bilateral-talks-proposes-extension-of-negotiations/
Obama will probably go for that – it will allow him to “kick the can” down the road for another six months. Israel of course will go ballistic over it.
Bravo, Kathleen.
Pouya,
I can assure you Nato has no desire to occupy Iran. And I also can assure you Russia and China want to make sure Iran does not build nukes.
Pouya,
I welcome good relations between Iran and Russia, and between Iran and China.
Israeli spy general says Iran serious in negotiations on nuclear deal
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/09/us-iran-nuclear-israel-idUSKBN0EK1DS20140609
Netanyahu must have puked…
fyi,
I am keenly aware of the historical and emotional factors that play into the support Israel obtains in the US, Canada and the EU, allowing it to continue to grow the illegal colonies of Jews in the West Bank.
I obviously also am aware of the protection that is extended to Israeli officials.
I assume you are aware that the Iranian nuclear dispute has injured Saudi Arabia’s efforts to get Israel out of the West Bank, and to get Israel to get rid of its nukes.
Also don’t miss http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/208529-us-interests-served-by-more-nuanced-views-on-israel-and
fyi,
Ahmadinejad said the events of 1953 were “water under the bridge” and no impediment to an improvement of America’s relations with Iran. I rather think Ahmadinejad is correct on this point.
fyi,
The US does not want a confrontation between Japan and China. Full stop.
James Canning says:
June 10, 2014 at 11:14 am
He stated that when he was hoping to settle with US and EU.
That hope was dashed and Axis Powers, Russia, and China went on to escalate against Iran to the strategic Never Land.
Now, pay attention, Mr. Khamenei has been stating in his speeches over the last several years that US and UK have been enemies of Iran for 60 years.
James Canning says:
June 10, 2014 at 11:19 am
As I said, you are ill informed.
Karl.. says:
June 10, 2014 at 9:41 am
French, and the rest of the West gang, want to recreate the “dependent” state once again.
That “train” left the station!
The recent speeches by SL has been crystal clear – Iran will not be going back to the last decade. Based on all available public information, Iran is willing to negotiate any and all verification modalities, but no and none to reduced energy and fuel production capacity.
So, the answer to the french: “let them eat cake!”
Six keys to economic reform in Iran: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/06/iran-economic-development-keys.html
I would add a Seventh too; Science and technology. Continuous, well funded, and best staffed R&D should become the center of all economical activities from car making to agriculture to market development to ….
Smith says:
June 10, 2014 at 1:06 pm
All of the states – excepting Russia and Japan – that are out of the core Christian states of North America and Western Europe are alike in these regards.
You take an Indian fellow and he is in Silicon Valley and he becomes inventive and creative; creates new products or else founds new businesses.
Left in India, he would only atrophy as everyone else would try to drag him down – consciously or unconsciously.
fyi says:
June 10, 2014 at 1:15 pm
Yes, it is so unfortunate. That is why I was asking you if Mr. Khamenei can start up and accelerate what likes of Martyred Suhrewardi had initiated; To put thinking and imaginative mind in the center of human existence in an Islamic society.
After all, if the Iranian culture on its most fundamental level do not reach the conclusions similar to Thomas Aquinas, that the human intelligence and autonomy are to be considered as Gifts from God and that the humans exercising these Gifts fully are not declaring their enmity to God but rather please the God by using these Gifts.
Or as Martyred Suhrewardi had put the case that the revelation and the reason are two faces of the same coin. Personally I think Mr. Khamenei should do this, because left to people of Iran by themselves, it will not happen ever, as it has not happened in the last 7000 years. I mean our people are so entrenched in their cargo cult behavior that it has become ridiculous to even expect from them to think and imagine.
Half or so of the society blames the Akhond jama’t for ills of the society and the other half blames the Jews. Under such pathetic conditions, this is the most important and historically significant thing that Mr. Khamenei has the responsibility to do. (But to rephrase your own thoughts; do Muslim rulers have a sense of history and their place in it? Does Islam’s after life justice judges the Muslim rulers by the history they leave behind or by their personal [and thus insignificant] good deeds?)
The West’s drive for destabilization of middle east continues…
Hardcore Sunni fighters, trained with the latest weapons as part of Syrian intervention, are involved in the operation of taking over Mosul.
Taliban, trained with the latest weapons as part of the Syria intervention, return to Pakistan to attack airports and military targets.
US is continuing to upgrade the equipment of the West’s Syrian intervention force.
Wes Clark may have been off with the timing when he learned the following…
“As I went back through the Pentagon in November 2001, one of the senior military staff officers had time for a chat. Yes, we were still on track for going against Iraq, he said. But there was more. This was being discussed as part of a five-year campaign plan, he said, and there were a total of seven countries, beginning with Iraq, then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Iran, Somalia and Sudan. …He said it with reproach–with disbelief, almost–at the breadth of the vision. I moved the conversation away, for this was not something I wanted to hear. And it was not something I wanted to see moving forward, either. …I left the Pentagon that afternoon deeply concerned.”
In the larger and developing picture of the middle east, a dependent state, a “client” state, will have no security to offer to her citizens. Orwellian propaganda will not change the fact that the West is out to destroy any independent state in the M.E. Denial is futile!
Another mess in Iraq is coming apparently.
http://presstv.com/detail/2014/06/10/366397/iraq-pm-vows-to-fight-terrorism/
This is of course the direct result of obama’s support for same terrorists in syrian landscape.
Smith says:
June 10, 2014 at 1:44 pm
In American parlance, Muslims became dumb, fat and happy.
Thinking is hard, and creative thinking is even harder.
I recall the comments of this Muslim scholar around 14-century stating that he had heard the sciences of arithmetic had advanced among the Franks (Italy in fact)but Muslims were of no need of such learning.
The Iranian state, like its Turkish counterpart, tried for centuries to match the Western states in military technologies but they always were playing catch up since the Shah and the Padeshah could not plant and foster an authentic culture of innovation and learning among their subjects.
Whether the current efforts in Iran, Pakistan or Turkey will take root is something that future will tell.
Exhortations will not suffice; the culture has to change – as it did in Russia as well as in Japan.
Nasser says:
“Sergey Karaganov’s latest article.”
These concepts will just as much apply to Iran..
“So far the attempt has yielded positive results. But to consolidate its positions, at least in the mid-term, Russia needs to reformat its economic and domestic policies, rapidly change the elites, and formulate the goals and national idea shared by the majority of its citizens.
……….
a new round of reforms, including fast-tracked liberalization of conditions for small and mid-sized businesses, the creation of independent courts capable of effectively protecting private property, a crusade against corruption, “nationalization” of bureaucracy and cleansing it of the sins of ostentatious consumerism,
…………..
Russia missed its chance to use the 2008-2009 financial crisis for reforms. It will be very sad if we waste the current upsurge in patriotic sentiment and in the legitimacy and popularity of the country’s leadership again; if everything is once again in vain and down the drain. “
fyi says:
June 10, 2014 at 2:59 pm
Thank you for this elaboration. I can say with certainty that efforts in Turkey and Pakistan are in vain. In fact both those societies are regressing to a fantasy land of ancient Islam that never existed. In both these countries a majority of the people are those who believe that by conforming with visible Islamic piety they can beat the west in sciences, economy and technology (for instance that water car in Pakistan or the AKP ideology of technological imitation minus empirical science).
Then there is a minority of the people who believe that by containing Islam to minimum and imitating the west like a monkey they can beat the west in sciences, economy and technology.
In Iran the situation is even worse. A society with deep values of cargo cult. They would easily offer their pedar/madar for blojob to British and Americans in order to get the latest GE or Rolls Royce aircraft engines. A society that is divided between those who are against people being on youtube and twitter and those who are in favor (note that none of them ever suggests creating their own). A society that is against the translation of books and learning. A society that is deluded that by haggling and bazar trading it can solve its economic problems. A society that is monafeq. A society that would kill any imaginative and thinking mind.
Smith says:
June 10, 2014 at 4:07 pm
Actually I tend to think that Iran is the best among Muslim states; the only sovereign Muslim state extant with a representative system of government that actually works.
And to that must be added the constant enmity of Axis Powers that is beating strategic & scientific sense into Iranians at all levels of society.
Islamic world was a region of cities and traders.
Now it has to become a region of countries and industrialists; a very tough mental transition.
fyi says:
June 10, 2014 at 4:30 pm
I sincerely hope you are right. And that Iran leads this tough mental transition.
Let’s see what happens.
fyi,
I think it was most unfortunate that the Ottoman Empire got sucked into the First World War. Many advances were being made in Ottoman society etc etc.
fyi,
I have a good understanding of the facts, and Obama does not want confrontation between Japan and China.
fyi,
Of course I “pay attention”. And you of course know that a politician says things to boost morale, etc etc etc etc. Most Americans cannot find Iran on a map of the Middle East.
James Canning says:
June 10, 2014 at 6:42 pm
Let me see, Mr. Obama does not seek a confrontation between US satrapi of Japan and China, does not seek a confrontation with Russia, does not seek a war with Iran, does not want to bomb Syria.
Then who does and who is instigating these confrontations across the globe and what responsibility, if any, the President of the United States has in all of this?
James Canning says:
June 10, 2014 at 6:44 pm
Earth to James Canning, Earth James Canning – Come in James, Come in!
Kathleen,
Does Chris Matthews think his pay packet will be fatter if he serves as an abject stooge of Aipac regarding illegal colonies of Jews in the West Bank?
fyi,
I think you are virtually deranged if you believe Obama wants a confrontation between Japan and China. Loony notion.
fyi,
How many times do I have to tell you that some very rich, very powerful, etc etc etc, Sunnis, want the Syrian government overthrown. Rich and powerful. Focus on those adjectives.
James Canning says:
June 10, 2014 at 6:56 pm
The Mad King’s policy has now caused the emergence of Sunni Extremist sanctuary in Eastern Syria and Northwestern Iraq.
The EU Barons went along with that.
The Mad King frees murderer of Shia while in Pakistan Shia are murdered en mass.
And rumor has it that there was an exchange of canon fire between Iran and Pakistan last night.
And the Mad King and his Barons are still committed to the military destruction of the Islamic Republic.
I hope that the center in the Shia Crescent could hold and take all necessary steps to safe guard herself.
And now the Mad King sheds crocodile tears for the “grave situation in Iraq” – really.
The world changed again today Mr. Canning – for the worse – I might add.
fyi,
Obama IS NOT “committed to the military destruction of Iran.” Nor is the EU or Nato. Utter nonsense. However, it is possible Iran could contrive to bring about catastrophe for itself, by following your advice.
Gav James
Here is another idea for your ect. etc. posts, which may be some what more realistic for you to use, it goes like this ” help guys I am running out of BS etc. etc. etc.” I think if you use these new innovative line it would be much more convening and refreshing to us all than the usual BS we are feed all along, do you think we can expect a little brake at least on the format.
Mr. Canning admonishes us to pay attention to the adjectives – nice shiny objects! Yet, the real culprits are “proper nouns”.
As I stated above, there is an ongoing policy of destabilization with the goal of functional state destruction.
I did not simply spew stuff! I quoted as examples:
the re-importation of Western trained fighters from Syria to Northern Iraq,
the re-importation of Western trained fighters Taliban from Syrian back to Pakistan,
the re-invigoration and re-arming of Syrian fighters, and
the statement of Wes Clark regarding the long term goal of state destruction
It is simply a complete waste of time to engage James Canning. There is no end to his nonsense.
Jay,
I suggest you read David Gardner’s comments in the Financial Times today, regarding the thinking in Saudi Arabia that is prompting the Saudi effort to improve relations with Iran.
Your implicit contention that some very rich and influential Sunnis did not do a great deal to bring on civil war in Syria is RUBBISH.
Khomeini says:
June 12, 2014 at 3:29 pm
Plutonium is the unsafest and most detectable of nuclear proliferation, if Iran ever has the intention of making nuclear bomb it would be stupid to go the plutonium way firstly need to make a reprocessing plant which is not easy to hide and can be bombed, while the process of uranium can be done in any building or basement.
I think the Irak plant was not made for bomb making or a deterrent measure, I think beside mastering the technology ,it was meant to be a mind diverter measure (a “Persian decoy”) while uranium plants were constructed.